MCP versus Lynas etc. ... das Grundproblem der beiden Giganten ist deren ebenso gigantische Maßstäbe (Verschuldung inklusive). Die nach Meinung des Autors in den Fußstapfen stehende Riege der kleineren REE-Unternehmen von Bedeutung scheinen den Markt besser zu verstehen. „Klein aber fein“ ... deren Managements haben fest die Wirtschaftlichkeit der Größe im Visier, entwickeln für sich nachhaltige Nischenmärkte mit verbindlichen Absatzkonditionen. Sollte endlich die Kirgistan-Frage geklärt sein, dann hoffe ich hier auch bald Stans zu lesen, denn R. M. und sein MM verfolgen eben diesen Ansatz. Gruß, mad.
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Molycorp’s problem is one of break even. It is already too high.
The biggest worry for Molycorp has got to be Lynas, which will produce nearly 4,000 mta of neodymium and a total of 8,000 mta of dudymium from just 22,000 mta production. I doubt very much that Lynas’ cost structure is twice as high as that of Molycorp, so they will be able to sell their Nd and NdPr at a lower price than Molycorp.
I think Molycorp’s basic problem is, as I have already said, their break even is too high and the target production rate is far too high for the real market. This has been obvious for years. The investing public has just caught on, and the greater fool theory that drove it has finally run out of greater fools. S**t happens.
There are much better managed REE companies out there than Molycorp. Look, for example, at GWMG, UCORE, TASMAN, and REE. Their managers all understand the market far better than Molycorp’s managers do. More importantly all of those managements understand that profitability not overall size is the target of a well managed business. Economy of scale is a useful manufacturing approach. It works for natural resource production only when, as an example, in the case of the heavy rare earths you cannot achieve production of the desired metal values without concomitant production of the other rare earths.
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rareearthfuture.com/2012/08/28/lynas-phase-one-lamp-complete/
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