Silber ist auch dabei!!!!!!
Technical Trading: The Week Ahead
21 March 2011, 12:09 p.m.
By Kitco News
www.kitco.com/
(Kitco News) - Mon March 21--The bulls have propelled New York April Comex gold futures higher for the fourth session in a row Monday. After correcting to a low at $1,380.70 per ounce on March 15, April gold futures have rocketed higher, back within striking distance of the all-time high at $1,445.70 scored on March 7.
Daily momentum tools saw bullish crossovers in recent sessions and are pointing higher Monday, a positive technical positioning for both the relative strength index and slow stochastics. The market traded above middle Bollinger band line resistance Friday, setting up the upper line, currently at $1,442.70 as resistance and a target.
All technical trends remain firmly bullish, with new all-time highs all but inevitable, from a technical perspective.
Dave Toth, director of technical research at R.J. O'Brien and rjomrt.com in Chicago said "the past few days recovery has unfolded enough to increase the odds that the recent sell off from $1,445 to $1,380 was just a correction to the broader bull market."
Toth highlighted the March 15 daily low at $1,380.70 as a "developing risk parameter" for traders to monitor and utilize near term.
Despite the bullish outlook, Toth did note that the "market still remains below the $1,445 all-time high. While that resistance remains intact you've got to be a little nimble at the upper quarter of the range. There is better risk/reward to buy at the lower end of the range—the $1,400/1,390 area, and/or following a breakout above it."
"You've got to be a little patient. I don't think this is a screaming buy at the upper end of the range" in gold," Toth added. He defined the near term range for April gold between $1,380 and $1,445."Perhaps this consolidation continues for another couple of weeks."
MAY SILVER
Shifting over the daily chart for New York Comex May silver, Toth said: "silver never relapsed enough last week to suggest it was anything but a bull market correction."
Indeed, silver has been outperforming gold in recent months and remains in a stronger technical position. After hitting a high at $36.745 an ounce on March 7, silver corrected lower in a shallow dip to $33.565 on March 15.
May silver futures are also trading above their middle Bollinger band line, targeting a move toward the upper line, currently at $36.740.
Again, like gold however, Toth warned that traders may not "want to buy [silver] up against resistance as opposed to waiting to after its broken. It is not a good risk/reward to buy up here against resistance in the $36.50/$36.75 area as long as resistance remains intact."
APRIL PLATINUM
Meanwhile, April platinum futures sustained a much more serious downside collapse in recent week, following a confirmed bearish head and shoulders top on the daily chart. From the March 2 high, April platinum fell from $1,865.50 to a low at $1,658.00 on March 17. The market met its bearish head and shoulders top downside target and has now begun to regroup on the upside.
April platinum is higher for the third session in a row Monday, but remains well below its recent rally high, scored on February 9 at $1,869.00.
Technically, the intermediate term trend is now neutral in the wake of the massive sell-off seen in recent weeks. It appears a strong bottom has been etched on the daily chart at the March 17 low, which unfolded with a strong "bullish reversal" day as the market hit a new sell-off low, but surged to a sharply higher close, in the upper third of the daily range that session.
On the upside near term, traders can target a test of 50% Fibonacci retracement resistance (off the early March-mid March sell-off) around $$1,762 and also middle Bollinger band line resistance at $1,782.
Gains would be needed back above $1,786, the 61.8% retracement of the March sell-off to target a retest of the early March highs around $1,855.
Bottom line? The recent gains have been impressive, a bullish reversal is evident on the daily chart and the market remains ripe for a continuing corrective rally in the wake of the recent sell-off.
By Kitco News
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