CHF tumbles vs. GBP and EUR as JPY strengthens on massive fall in Crude yesterday. USD still looking weak. The Fed’s Bernanke’s rhetoric on monetary policy late today may cause considerable volatility as interest rate spreads are growing wider and may serve to brake the USD decline soon.MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION The crude oil price fall of $3.50 a barrel yesterday was the big market mover as JPY strengthened across the board overnight.AUD/USD pulled higher overnight by a smaller than expected decrease in house prices for Q3Continued positive US data and hawkishness from the Fed still not providing the USD with any supportTHEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION The market continues to ignore the fundamental data – but perhaps rhetoric from the Fed’s Bernanke today at 17:00 GMT will provide some kind of catalyst to an eventual correction in the USD decline – after all, the US yields are nearing multi-year highs vs. Europe.JPY may get interesting again soon – after all, this whole central bank reserve rotation thing is more about Asia than Europe – we like to be long JPY as the market is perhaps fearful of MOF intervention and taking the other side of fear is often a wise strategy. EUR/JPY is the chosen vehicle for this proposition.EURUSDEUR/USD trended higher still despite the robust ISM showing yesterday and continued hawkish rhetoric from the Fed. A new peak somewhere just north of 1.3400/20 may be in the making. 1.3330 is now support. Resist.1.34951.34111.33641.32431.3159SupportGBPUSDThe remarkable GBP/USD rally kept right on trucking yesterday and might even have a few fumes left to push it higher still to perhaps 1.9420 before a sharp dip sets in back toward 1.9250. Resist.1.96601.94541.93501.90421.8836SupportUSDJPYUSD/JPY made marginal new lows this morning, and could continue lower still to 101.80/60 before finding support. Traders may be reluctant to test the MOF’s resolve at the 100.00 level this time around. 102.70 Is now first resistance. Resist.103.86103.30102.18102.18101.62SupportEURJPYEUR/JPY has dipped a bit overnight on the weak crude prices and continued signs of a robust US economy. The dip may turn into a sell-off back towards the 135.50 area today as the JPY looks strong. 137.10 is resistance Resist.137.86137.38136.52136.42135.94SupportUSDCADUSD/CAD made it below the two swing levels mentioned yesterday around 1.1825/40, but hasn’t reacted much to the development – perhaps due to the collapse in oil prices, which is nominally USD/CAD bullish. This makes the outlook uncertain. 1.1900 must be reattained to argue the bullish case. Resist.1.20821.19681.18211.17411.1628SupportUSDCHFUSD/CHF was pushed back lower again, but has yet to make new lows as CHF weakened dramatically against EUR and especially GBP. This is not the pair to favor for the USD bearish case, as only marginal new lows may be in the making. When the USD does finally strengthen, however – this may be the one to play, with 1.1450 the current upside swing level. Resist.1.16071.15051.13851.13021.1201SupportAUDUSDAUD/USD found strong support at the 0.7700 area yesterday and has blasted north of 0.7800 as of this writing. The current rally could extend to 0.7850 resistance, but it may be tough for the pair to do much above that level in the short term. Support comes in around 0.7750. Resist.0.79360.78440.78130.76590.7566SupportNZDUSDNZD/USD turned right around and rallied to a new high rather than correcting, and the pair could extend toward 0.7260/80 before finding resistance. Resist.0.73130.72420.72370.71010.7030Support IT-Angebot trifft IT-Nachfrage: Projektboutique.de
