Interessante Beschreibung aus www.daytradesignals.com/proxytradermain.html .
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Most people think of Commodities as being Pork Bellies, Lumber, Corn, Orange Juice, Heating Oil etc, but they also include financial instruments such as Swiss Francs, US Treasury Bonds and Stock Indices, (which is where we become interested).
In the reports, each Commodity is broken down into different types of traders reporting ownership.
These traders are broken down into 3 groups:
Commercials, (Institutions, the so called "Smart Money"), who actually own the underlying security or commodity and are using Futures as a hedge product
Large Traders. (Speculators, who have no vested interest in the underlying security or commodity. Normally, they are just trend followers.)
Small Traders, (the rest of us).
As any Futures trader knows, the Commercials get it right most of the time, whereas the Large Traders and Non-Commercials are most always wrong.
The Commercials use the liquidity of the Futures and Options markets to control risk on the underlying securities and commodities they already own. They are required, by regulation to reveal these figures. By not having to liquidate the underlying instrument, (in our case the SP500 group of stocks), they can mitigate a bad market by simply buying Short Futures and Options contracts. If they had to move whole baskets of these stocks all at once, they would be essentially playing against themselves, driving prices for the underlying higher or lower as the case may be.
For all these years Speculators, primarily, have used the number of long or short contracts to attempt to gauge the "future" intentions of the "Smart Money" which always seems to know, in a timely manner, which way the markets are going to move in the longer time frame. (Actually they tend to lead the markets by about 3 weeks, thus capturing the middle chunk of the moves);
These Speculators, for the most part, look for a divergence between Large Traders and Commercials as a market vane. If the Large Traders have a high number of long positions and the Commercials have a large number of short positions and the market is down, this is the ideal set up for a "buying opportunity", which is just looking for a catalyst to make the turn. Traders like to look at 5 year historical levels of contracts, and if the Short Futures contracts are within 5% of their record high, they would begin buying the Futures and Options contracts.. If the Long Futures contracts are within 5% of their record high, and the market is up, they would begin selling Futures and Options contracts. (not a bad concept, and with a few more embellishments is the basis for many "Guru" recommendations on Futures and Options).
Few have gone beyond this step and applied the key elements of these reports to an analysis and method of trading the general markets. Futures Contracts are traded by the wealthy or risk adventurous, (It costs upwards of $30,000 margin for EACH SP500 Futures contract you want to play, and all bills are due and payable at the end of each market day). For many it is the home away from home for Vegas high-rollers.
...
J
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...
Most people think of Commodities as being Pork Bellies, Lumber, Corn, Orange Juice, Heating Oil etc, but they also include financial instruments such as Swiss Francs, US Treasury Bonds and Stock Indices, (which is where we become interested).
In the reports, each Commodity is broken down into different types of traders reporting ownership.
These traders are broken down into 3 groups:
Commercials, (Institutions, the so called "Smart Money"), who actually own the underlying security or commodity and are using Futures as a hedge product
Large Traders. (Speculators, who have no vested interest in the underlying security or commodity. Normally, they are just trend followers.)
Small Traders, (the rest of us).
As any Futures trader knows, the Commercials get it right most of the time, whereas the Large Traders and Non-Commercials are most always wrong.
The Commercials use the liquidity of the Futures and Options markets to control risk on the underlying securities and commodities they already own. They are required, by regulation to reveal these figures. By not having to liquidate the underlying instrument, (in our case the SP500 group of stocks), they can mitigate a bad market by simply buying Short Futures and Options contracts. If they had to move whole baskets of these stocks all at once, they would be essentially playing against themselves, driving prices for the underlying higher or lower as the case may be.
For all these years Speculators, primarily, have used the number of long or short contracts to attempt to gauge the "future" intentions of the "Smart Money" which always seems to know, in a timely manner, which way the markets are going to move in the longer time frame. (Actually they tend to lead the markets by about 3 weeks, thus capturing the middle chunk of the moves);
These Speculators, for the most part, look for a divergence between Large Traders and Commercials as a market vane. If the Large Traders have a high number of long positions and the Commercials have a large number of short positions and the market is down, this is the ideal set up for a "buying opportunity", which is just looking for a catalyst to make the turn. Traders like to look at 5 year historical levels of contracts, and if the Short Futures contracts are within 5% of their record high, they would begin buying the Futures and Options contracts.. If the Long Futures contracts are within 5% of their record high, and the market is up, they would begin selling Futures and Options contracts. (not a bad concept, and with a few more embellishments is the basis for many "Guru" recommendations on Futures and Options).
Few have gone beyond this step and applied the key elements of these reports to an analysis and method of trading the general markets. Futures Contracts are traded by the wealthy or risk adventurous, (It costs upwards of $30,000 margin for EACH SP500 Futures contract you want to play, and all bills are due and payable at the end of each market day). For many it is the home away from home for Vegas high-rollers.
...
J
