NACH ARBA & CMRC NUN AUCH VERT ???

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NACH ARBA & CMRC NUN AUCH VERT ??? tgk1
tgk1:

NACH ARBA & CMRC NUN AUCH VERT ???

 
17.07.00 14:40
#1
The B2B Analyst- U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray's Weekly B2B Newsletter, Volume 1, Number 25-

       
     FRIDAY, JULY 14, 2000 1:54 PM
     - BusinessWire

    MINNEAPOLIS, Jul 14, 2000 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- The B2B Analyst Is Published Each Friday And Delivered Free To Subscribers
    Via e-Mail.

        Jon M. Ekoniak, 650-233-2278, jekoniak@pjc.com
        Timothy M. Klein, 612-303-5544, tklein@pjc.com

      To subscribe, go to www.gotoanalysts.com/b2bsubscribe/

        Looking for more insight on the B2B e-commerce market?

    Each Friday morning Jon and Tim conduct a live interview with RadioWallStreet. To listen live, go to radiowallstreet.com at 9:00
    a.m. PST. Interview archives are also maintained on the RadioWallStreet Web site.

    July 14, 2000
    In This Week's B2B Analyst:

    I.       INDEX - U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray B2BEC Index
    II.      Market Insight - A B2B Revival: Is B2B Back?
    III.     B2K - Turning Vision Into Reality
    IV.      Weekly News
    V.       Filings & Pricings
    VI.      Appendix - Bios

    I. INDEX - U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray B2BEC Index

    Close: 142.56 Past week: +33.66 (+30.9%) Past month: +31.4 (+28.2%) Since inception (7/1/99): +42.56 (+42.6%)

    Driven by Ariba's tremendous revenue growth, the Index soared more than 30% this past week, its most significant jump in
    months. Commerce One's 55% gain led the pack, with Ariba, Ventro (a), VerticalNet (a), ImageX, and PurchasePro all up more
    than 30%.

    II. MARKET INSIGHT - A B2B Revival: Is B2B Back?

    Inspired by Ariba's strong June quarter results, the recently maligned world of B2B has regained some bounce in its step as the
    results begin to speak for themselves. With Commerce One (a,c), Ariba, FreeMarkets (a), and PurchasePro gaining an average of
    more than 40% in the past few days, this revival is looking more like the days of old--before the emergence of CoBAMs (Consortia
    of Brick-And-Mortars) and the recent correction in the market when B2B bombed 60%-80%.

    Many will surely ask whether B2B is back to stay? We reiterate our belief in the strong value being created by B2B models and
    maintain that patient investors will be rewarded in the form of impressive fundamental results and resulting stock price
    appreciation. Our thesis has always been that the fundamental and revolutionary benefits of B2B are real, in which supply chain
    inefficiencies are particularly ripe for the Internet to streamline, automate, and integrate processes to reduce process costs and
    open up markets. While we believe that the market's conviction in this thesis was never really in question, it was surely tested as
    the leading pure-plays suffered heart-wrenching stock price declines. What did change was the market's perception of the
    competitive environment, not only the impact of the CoBAMs on pure-plays but how the former pure-play high fliers differed.

    With the passing of time has come improved clarity on the competitive landscape. Despite all the fanfare, most of the CoBAMs
    remain little more than a concept. In the meantime, we are starting to see consortia members hedge their bets by joining the
    CoBAMs while maintaining relationships with the pure-plays. Companies such as BP Amoco, a founding member of the
    Petrochemical Exchange, along with 13 other leading energy and petrochemical companies, recently announced a long-term deal
    with FreeMarkets to set pricing for catalog-based buying of indirect goods. Honeywell and Delphi Automotive are similarly in
    consortia-backed exchanges while continuing their long term relationships with FreeMarkets. We believe this will be a dominant
    trend going forward as different marketplaces and services generate distinct value propositions. Another result of the CoBAMs
    has been the increasing reliance on technology providers, as players such as Commerce One have made hay being the
    technology partner to multiple consortia.

    We believe time has also brought clarity in the market positions of some leading providers. As business models become more
    seasoned and companies have had time to absorb the business from large customers, variations in market focus, approach, and
    delivered value propositions are becoming evident. Ariba is now the leader in MRO-based e-procurement applications.
    Complementing its core strength in indirect procurement applications, Ariba has expanded into direct procurement with Trading
    Dynamics and SupplierMarket.com, and exchange platforms with Tradex. Commerce One is focusing more on building a broad
    market platform to build marketplaces and connect buyers and sellers, in addition to providing procurement applications. Through
    expansion of its Global Trading Web, Commerce One wants to own the highways connecting buyers, suppliers, and marketplaces.
    While both Commerce One and Ariba initially began serving the indirect procurement market, FreeMarkets was the first pure-play
    to target direct goods. Its approach is highly service-based, combining proprietary auction technology with consulting services
    before, during, and after the auction event. The key distinction for FreeMarkets is that it focuses on the up-front buying decision
    or sourcing, not on the ongoing order transactions. This expertise has allowed the Company to also expand its services into
    indirect goods and services, which are just as complex at the sourcing level.

    Competition should only intensify across all areas of B2B as new vendors test new approaches and current leaders attempt to
    extend their leadership. However, as the market continues to evolve and grow, companies will also continue to differentiate
    themselves and thereby provide investors with a much better sense of who the winners will be and how they will get there. We
    believe that these differences will become more evident over the next two to three quarters as this rising tide will lift many ships in
    many different ways.

    III. B2K - Turning Vision Into Reality

    The big question perplexing investors, entrepreneurs, and Fortune 1000 companies is "How long is it going to take to make B2B
    e-commerce a reality?" The promises of B2B e-commerce are big, the opportunities are abundant, and the vision is impressive.
    However, realizing these changes will take a lot of hard work and time. It is not as easy as flipping a switch. It will take time. The
    question is how much time?

    Here is a quick answer--it is not going to happen overnight. To simplify things, below we have outlined four main stages of B2B
    e-commerce adoption and deployment. They do not necessarily need to be deployed in this order, but they do feed off each
    other, integrating to make e-commerce seamless and frictionless.

    Integrated Internal Workflow - you need to walk before you can run. With the proliferation of proprietary best-of-breed applications,
    this is an issue that has been challenging companies for the last decade. Systems need to communicate with each other and
    information needs to be shared inside the organization. Integrators have made hundreds of millions of dollars building custom
    APIs to do this. Enterprise application integration (EAI) companies such as Vitria, Neon, and STC are building tools and packaged
    applications to accomplish this major issue. Additionally, companies such as Ariba, Commerce One, and Clarus (a,c) addressed as
    their first step the internal procurement workflow. Their applications address such issues as developing a purchase requisition,
    routing the requisition for approval, developing a purchase order, and reconciling payments. This is a critical step, as an
    organization must be organized internally before effectively collaborating externally. Estimated time to completion: two to six years.

    Aggregation: Creating A Network Of Buyers And Sellers - the Internet has the opportunity to essentially localize global commerce
    though its ability to reach virtually everyone worldwide. The challenge is in getting companies online and in a central site so that
    they can be easily accessible. We believe that start-up marketplaces did a great job in raising awareness, and many CoBAMs are
    now making significant progress in bringing large companies online within fairly consolidated industries. Aggregating enough
    players is critical in creating a meaningful marketplace. It is one of the first steps and perhaps the one that will be completed the
    quickest. Estimated time to completion: now to three years.

    Integrated Buying/Selling Solution - once companies are connected online, the daunting challenge of providing a buying and
    selling solution begins. This is the first step in extending beyond the four walls of an organization and it must be a successful one
    if we are to hope for bigger things. Various transaction options (auction, complex RFQ, etc.) must be available and designed to fit
    the industry's specific needs, providing trading partners with the benefits of added transparency and reach, yet also the comfort
    and security of knowing that their relationships, brand value, and way of doing business are being protected. Estimated time to
    completion: two to eight years.

    Supply-Chain Collaboration - while the buying and selling process is critical, its enablement still only scratches the surface of B2B
    e-commerce's potential. In order to retool our economy and deliver upon the big promises of e-commerce, it will be necessary to
    facilitate communication and collaboration throughout the entire demand and supply chains. Only then will our economy see the
    benefits of demand-driven production, near-zero inventory, and meaningful information sharing and cooperation between trading
    partners. Estimated time to completion: four to 12 years.

            The Phases Of B2B e-Commerce Development And Deployment

    Process                 Benefits               Estimated
                                                   Buildout
                                                   Time


    Aggregation             Broader reach,         Now-3 years
                            greater selection

    Internal Workflow       Reduced processing     2-6 years
                            costs, fewer
                            errors, robust data
                            intelligence

    Integrated              One-click commerce,    2-8 years
    Buying/Selling          efficient
                            price discovery,
                            lower SG&A

    Supply Chain            Lower inventory,       4-12 years
    Collaboration           shortened cycle
                            times, improved
                            cooperation

    While the era of B2B e-commerce is quickly engulfing us, it will be a long and arduous road involving multiple steps that need to
    be achieved before the "vision" is realized. Strap yourselves in--we foresee this process continuing into the next decade.

        IV. WEEKLY NEWS

        --  FreeMarkets (FMKT) signed BP Amoco to a long-term agreement.
            BP Amoco is a founding member of the Petrochemical Exchange
            and plans to initially use FreeMarkets to set catalog pricing
            for indirect goods to be purchased on the Exchange.

        --  Retek Inc. (RETK-a,c) announced that it has been selected by
            Tesco, Britain's largest retailer, as a strategic partner to
            support its expanding nonfood business. Tesco will use Retek's
            Trade Management System to support its worldwide sourcing
            activities.

        --  Agile Software (AGIL), a provider of collaborative
            manufacturing solutions, signed Compaq (a) to a
            multimillion-dollar contract. Compaq will use Agile's
            collaboration product as well as Agile Buyer, a sourcing
            solution for direct materials.

        --  Ariba (ARBA) and Project Software & Development (PSDI-a)
            announced an alliance to enable its customers to access each
            other's buyers, suppliers, and services. PSDI provides
            solutions to streamline the supply chain for MRO goods.

        --  Due to CoBAM competition, pure-play AviationX is changing its
            course within the commercial aviation industry and will now
            focus its efforts on providing workflow applications and
            technology to industry participants and CoBAMs.

        V. FILINGS & PRICINGS

    In a further sign of potential market warming, two B2B IPOs were priced this week, with each stock gaining more than 35%.

    Pricings IPO

        --  divineInterventures (DVIN) issued 14,285,000 shares at $9 per
            share. The Company incubates a network of companies
            specifically focused on the B2B e-commerce market. Currently,
            DVIN shares are trading at $19 9/16.

        --  I-many (IMNY) issued 7,500,000 shares at $9 per share. The
            Company operates marketplace-focused contract purchasing
            within the health care industry. Currently, IMNY shares are
            trading at $12 1/2.

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NACH ARBA & CMRC NUN AUCH VERT ??? tgk1
tgk1:

Vericalnet

 
17.07.00 14:53
#2
In der letzten Woche sind B2B-Werte nach der positiven Aribameldung plötzlich wieder ganz in geworden.

CMRC hat es geschafft den 60$-Widerstand zu brechen, ARBA gar die 100$ signifikant zu überwinden.

Einzig VERT hat es noch nicht geschafft den Widerstand schlecht hin, die 60$, zu knacken, hat sich bis jetzt aber zielstrebig dorthin bewegt.

Auch BLSW blieb etwas zurück und sollte weiterhin beobachtet werden, am Fr +15%

Gruß

TGK
NACH ARBA & CMRC NUN AUCH VERT ??? Buckmaster
Buckmaster:

Goldman Sachs nimmt VERT auf Empfehlungsliste/ Kursziel 75 $

 
17.07.00 15:00
#3
New York Investment Research (New York) - - Investment Research

===================== NOTE 7:33 AM July 17, 2000 ======================

2. VerticalNet, Inc. (VERT) $51.13
Jamie Friedman 1 650 234-3341

EPS (FY Dec): 2000E US$-0.89, 2001E US$0.06 - Reccomended List

* UPGRADING VERTICALNET TO RECOMMENDED LIST. Over the last 6 months VERT
entered into a new line of business (electronic component trading), for
which we believe the Street has yet to give them credit. This has
created a hidden asset whose value we believe will surface over time. In
addition, VERT's core business is ramping faster than expected. We
toured VERT facilities recently and believe the storefront business
(w/MSFT support) is ramping ahead of expectations. Simultaenously VERT
is winning a seat at the table with both tech cos and consortia that
should lift the stock. Due to the hidden value of the exchange, and the
strength in the underlying business, we are raising our rating to RL,
price target $75.
* MAKING MARKETS WERE THERE WERE NO MARKETS. VERT'S GLOBAL ELECTRONICS
EXCHANGE IS A HIDDEN ASSET. In the last 6 months, VerticalNet has
acquired 3 electronic component and hardware exchanges, New England
Chip Exchange (NECX, 12/16/99), Real World Electronics (RWE, 2/22/00),
and American Integrated Circuit Exchange (AICE, 7/7/00). Proforma for
the acquisitions, we estimate 40-50% of VerticalNet's revs in the next
12 months will come from its chip exchanges. Moreover, VerticalNet will
now have $800M of the domestic chip spot market of $8B, or ~10%. Under
one fold, these three companies (NECX, RWE and AICE) will earn a higher

seat at the table, creating an increasingly powerful force in the tech
marketplace. We believe this increased concentration warrants a
reappraisal of the valuation of the VERT shares.
* WHAT ARE THE COMPARABLE COMPANIES AMONG B2B EXCHANGES? As described
above, VERT is emerging as a principal market maker in electronic
components. We believe that this new electronics exchange business
commands a premium to Vert's underlying business, which argues for a
multiple expansion. There is no perfect comparable public company to
this business, but we believe an appropriate universe includes Enron
(covered by David Fleischer, principal market maker in oil and gas and
bandwidth), Consumer Electronics (covered by David Abraham, is a German
company who has a chip exchange similar to VerticalNet), Universal
Access (which I also co-cover, is a market maker in bandwidth). While we
recognize that none of these is a perfect comparable, we believe that
the mix of companies can be illustrative when valuing VerticalNet's chip
business.Performing a detailed analysis on the valuation of the
Electronics Exchange as a standalone business suggests the Street is
failing to recognize its full value. The multiple of 2000 and 2001 for
the comparable exchange business includes 45 and 25 times for Enron, 101
and 37 times for Universal Access, and 35 and 20 times for Consumer
Electronics. This yields an average of approximately 54 and 27 times
2000 and 2001, respectively. For a variety of reasons (discussed in the
risks section), we believe that the VerticalNet Electronics Exchange
should trade at a discount to these comparable companies. Even so, we
think that the VerticalNet Electronics Exchange is worth between $1.5B
and $2.5B. We also reconfirm this analysis of the Electronics Exchange
business with a DCF analysis. Using conservative assumptions regarding
growth rates (we condition for cyclicality), gross and operating margins
(<11% and ~35% of gross revs, resp), and discount rates 11%, and a
terminal year multiple of 20 times, we believe this business is worth a
minimum of $1B.
* SO WHAT ARE THE VERTICALNET SHARES WORTH? VerticalNet as a whole trades
at 22 and 12 times 2000 and 2001 revenues, respectively. VerticalNet
has three distinct lines of business; storefronts (with content-like
characteristics), exchanges and e-commerce. To better evaluate the Vert
shares we analyze the competitors in each area of business and their
respective revenue multiples. For the content group we used CNET and
ZDNet, which trade at roughly 9 and 6 times sales for 2000 and 2001. We
believe that Vert's content business is worth a minimum of $1.4B.

Important Disclosures (code definitions attached or available upon request)
VERT : CF
NACH ARBA & CMRC NUN AUCH VERT ??? Buckmaster
Buckmaster:

vorbörslich:

 
17.07.00 15:05
#4
57.1250$ zu 57.5000$. Schlusskurs vom Freitag war 51,12$.


Und das ist hoffentlich erst der Anfang von B2B :-)

Gute Kurse
Buckmaster
NACH ARBA & CMRC NUN AUCH VERT ??? tgk1
tgk1:

VERT +10% ----- CMRC -7% und ARBA sogar -10%

 
17.07.00 15:48
#5
In BRD bei 61, Vergleich Posting oben noch 55
NACH ARBA & CMRC NUN AUCH VERT ??? tgk1
tgk1:

Ich glaub´s kaum VERT bei 59 3/4, 60 sind aber heute nicht mehr drinn

 
17.07.00 18:01
#6
14% Plus und dann noch DEN Widerstand brechen...???

Bis nach 22:00

TGK
NACH ARBA & CMRC NUN AUCH VERT ??? tgk1

Mein Gott ich glaub´s kaum 62$$$$$

 
#7
In der letzten Stunde von 58 noch über die 60 und bei 62 1/32 geschlossen !!!

Buckmaster, jetzt haben wir verdammt gute Kurse. Bleibt das Nasdaq-Umfeld weiterhin positiv sind 65-70 schnell drin 8)

TGK


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