Ukraine,Serbien und Ungarn rufen nach IMF-Hilfe
www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/...nd-Serbia-call-IMF.html
...."The global credit crisis is spreading to the most leveraged economies in the world," said Danske Bank.
"Iceland was the canary. It was the first to need a helping hand from the IMF, but all countries that have had asset bubbles and rely on foreign funding are vulnerable," said Lars Christensen, the bank’s East Europe expert.
The credit default swaps (CDS) for Argentina, Pakistan, and Ecuador are flashing warnings of insolvency, while the Baltic States, Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey are at risk as it becomes harder to finance current account deficits.
"This is turning serious," said Hans Redeker, currency chief at BNP Paribas.
"Countries in Eastern Europe have been living beyond means for years and now they face a full-blown credit crunch. They are going to have to cut back on imports and that will push the eurozone deeper into recession," he said.
"We think the next phase will be an attack on the currency pegs in the Baltics and Bulgaria," he said.
Hungary may soon become the first EU state to need an IMF bail-out since Britain’s loan in 1976. Premier Ferenc Gyurcsany said he was in close talks with the fund but viewed financial aid as a "last resort." ...
The forint plummeted 5pc yesterday as panic swept the Budapest markets, inflicting more pain on those with large debts in Swiss francs and euros.
More than 80pc of mortgages issued over the last two years have been in foreign curencies. Borrowers have been lured by low rates, ignoring the exchange risk.
Raiffeisen Bank, Volksbank, and Bayerische Landesbank, have all ordered their Hungarian subsidiaries to stop lending in foreign currencies in recent days.
Ukraine’s currency fell to a record low last week, forcing the central bank to intervene. Fitch Ratings said Ukraine’s red-hot credit growth of 74pc last year had led to overheating, leaving the banks vulnerable as the boom deflates. The cuurent account deficit is expected to reach 7pc of GDP next year. ....
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