HK Yanzhou down 5,7%

Coal Stocks Down, But UOBKH Keeps Overweight

Yanzhou Coal (1171.HK) down 5.7% at HK$13.36,

China Shenhua (1088.HK) down 2.9% at HK$44.00,

China Coal (1898.HK) down 5.6% at HK$21.70.

These stocks have retreated by 20% from their recent peaks due to concerns over resource tax on domestic mining industry, says UOB KayHian. "We believe the regional coal price hikes and robust coal demand (+14.1% on-year) will underpin the strong earnings momentum of coal players." Keeps Overweight call on coal sector with Shenhua, China Coal as top picks.

Ups Yanzhou Coal to Buy vs Hold.

Target prices for Shenhua, China Coal, Yanzhou at HK$55.50, HK$27.00, HK$17.40 respectively

Yanzhou Coal  enters a correction mode after it has met resistance at $16.58 recently. By technical analysis, the share price has gained ground above $12.00 level. RSI-14 hopes to recoup the 50-mark level, which signals the counter to jump soon. Besides, Stochastic Oscillator is going to unveil a buying signal. Both technical indicators suggest the counter to jump. It sets to break the 10-day moving average at $14.33 soon. Whenever it confirms a breakout from this critical point, it will probably ride on an upward trend heading towards $16.00 in the medium term.

Yanzhou Coal (1171, $13.4) 12M Target $17.0 Trading BUY

Revenue and earnings of Yanzhou Coal in 3Q07 grew 26% and 60% yoy to RMB4,136mn and RMB716mn respectively, based on PRC accounting standard, thanks to a 16% yoy increase in average coal price .In the first nine months of 2007, the earnings were just up 1% to RMB1,825mn because a 21.8% increase in operating cost outpaced revenue growth of 15.5%.

In the fourth quarter, the company may still face higher village relocation costs. However, we believe the coal price will stay at high level driven by winter demand so that earnings in 4Q should be strong.

Yushuwan and Zhaolou coal mines are expected to commence operation in 2H08. The annual designed capacity is 8.0mn and 3.0mn tons per year respectively. The 100,000 tons methanol project will also be operational in 2008 that we believe will offset the lower production in headquarter areas.

Yanzhou Coal is trading at 20x PE of 2007 and 17x PE of 2008, while the peers like China Shenhua (1088, $43.35) and China Coal (1898, $21.7) are traded at 2008 PE of 31x and 34x respectively.

We think the valuation of Yanzhou is undemanding. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of $17.0.

14,30 HKD +1,18 +8,99%

Yanzhou Coal (1171, $11.54) 12M Target $17.0 BUY
Yanzhou Coal reported net profit growth of 36.1% to RMB3.23bn in 2007, in line with market consensus.

Revenue grew 21.3% yoy to RMB14.56bn in 2007 whilst net profit increased 36.1% yoy to RMB3.23bn. EPS was RMB0.66. Final dividend was RMB0.17 giving a full year dividend payout of 26%.

In 2007, the raw coal production was 35.64mn tonnes, representing a decrease of 0.41 million tonnes or 1.1% as compared to that of 2006. The output of saleable coal was 34.56mn tonnes in 2007, down 0.2% yoy.

The average coal price achieved by the company was RMB414.02 per tonne in 2007, representing an increase of RMB72.90 per tonne or 21.4% yoy. The average domestic coal price increased 25.6% yoy to RMB417.24 per tonne. The average export coal price fell 6.6% yoy to RMB356.98 per tonne. Overall operating margin increased from 29.0% to 30.3% thanks to the rising coal price.

The group plans to sell a total of 34.4mn tonnes of coal in 2008. The company, Shanxi Neng Hua and Yancoal Australia’s sales targets were 31.60mn, 1.2mn and 1.6mn tonnes respectively.

Currently, approximately 93.9% of 2008 sales volume target or equivalent to 32.3mn tonnes have been settled by the domestic coal sales contracts and intentions, among which the average net contract price of sales contracts amounting to 9.51 million tonnes with increased by 38.10% over that of 2007; while price of the coal sales intentions of 22.79 million tonnes will fluctuate in accordance with changes in the market.

Regarding the construction of new projects, the 100,000 tonnes methanol project of Shanxi Neng Hua and the 600,000 tonnes methanol project of Yulin Neng Hua are expected to commence operation in the second quarter and second half of 2008 respectively.

Given a higher-than-expected coal price, we have revised upwards our net profit forecast 2008 by 13% from RMB3,825mn to RMB4,368mn, up 35% yoy. The counter is currently trading at 10.4x 2008 earnings that we think is attractive. Reiterate our BUY recommendation with unchanged 12-month price target of $17.0.  

1171 YANZHOU COAL 13.3 1.1 9.02 396,855 30,872

Yanzhou Coal surges in Hong Kong on strong Q1 results,

H1 forecast   Yanzhou Coal Mining Co Ltd was sharply higher after reporting a nearly 113 pct rise in first-quarter net profit and projecting over 100 pct profit growth for the first half of the year

At midday, the stock was up 0.86 hkd or 6.22 pct at 14.68 hkd, off a high of 14.96.

The company's A-shares on the mainland also surged, ending the morning session in Shanghai up 7.75 pct at 21.26 yuan.

Yangzhou Coal said it posted a net profit of 1.49 bln yuan in the three months to March under Chinese accounting standards amid increased coal prices.

Its average selling price of coal in the first quarter was 599.43 yuan per ton, up 46 pct from a year earlier.