Goldpreis-Szenarien

Veröffentlich am 09.08.2006 11:40 Uhr von Walter K. Eichelburg

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Von verschiedenen Autoren werden unterschiedliche Szenarien für die zukünftige Goldpreis-Entwicklung angegeben. Wie sich das real abspielen wird ist heute noch nicht ganz klar, aber von enormer Wichtigkeit für alle Edelmetall-Investoren. Ich möchte in diesem Artikel auf die wichtigsten Szenarien eingehen und sie bewerten.


1. Deflationisten (Prechter, Hannich)

Die Deflationisten sehen den Goldpreis bei einem Crash des Finanzsystems drastisch sinken, da alle Assets verkauft werden müssen, um Cash zu generieren. Erst später soll der Goldpreis in einer Hyperinflation massiv ansteigen.

Es spricht einiges dafür, dass der Goldpreis in einer Liquditätskrise wie im Mai/Juni 2006 mit allen anderen Assets (Aktien, Commodities) einbricht, da die Fonds und Spekulanten nicht zwischen den Assets unterscheiden. Nach Robert Prechter (Buch: Conquer the Crash) könnte der Goldpreis auf 200 $/oz sinken. Laut Robert Prechter’s Elliot Wave Financial Forecast (EWFF) vom August 2006 soll der Goldpreis auf 450 $/oz sinken. Nach einer längeren Deflationsphase soll der Goldpreis in einer nachfolgenden Hyperinflation (nach mehreren Jahren) dann massiv steigen. Herr Hannich gibt überhaupt keinen Richtwert an, jedoch lehnt er aus idelologischen Gründen Gold generell ab.

Das Problem mit den Deflationisten ist, dass sie die "reine Deflation" aus den Zeiten des Goldstandards vor Augen haben. Im Fiat Money-System dagegen führt ein Abverkauf der Assets (= Deflation der Aktien & Bonds) auch zu einem Abverkauf der betroffenen Währung. Es ist unwahrscheinlich, dass bei einem massiven Abverkauf von US-Bonds und Aktien der Dollar nicht auch verkauft wird. Es ist sichtbar, dass die US-Wirtschaft derzeit in eine Depression geht. Der Immobilienmarkt kollabiert, Einzelhandel und Tourismus brechen ein. Die Frage ist nur, welche Art von Depression es sein wird.

Modifizierte Deflationisten wie Martin Weiss sehen daher, dass in diesem Fall der Goldpreis "durch die Decke" geht, besonders, wenn es den US-Dollar trifft.

Verhalten für Anleger: Bei diesem Szenario empfiehlt es sich, mit Einsetzen der Krise in Bargeld und kurzlaufende Staatsanleihen zu gehen. Mit ansteigendem Goldpreis ist dann ein sofortiger Umstieg in Gold und Silber erforderlich, denn dann geht der Rest der Papierwelt durch Hyperinflation zu Grunde.



2. Gold verschwindet (Laird, Tiggemann)

Diese Autoren sehen, dass im Fall einer Finanzkrise Gold und Silber einfach nicht mehr zu bekommen sind, egal um welchen Preis. Chris Laird meint etwa in "Final Days of US-Dollar?", dass im Fall eines massiven Dollar-Abverkaufs von den USA Devisenkontrollen verhängt werden, was dazu führt, dass Gold zu keinem Preis mehr ausreichend zu bekommen ist. Friedrich Tiggemann meint, dass das derzeitige Finanzsystem so extrem angespannt ist, dass ein Auslöser wie eine Großpleite, Terroranschlag, etc. für den sofortigen Totalzusammenbruch genügt und dann Gold innerhalb weniger Wochen nicht mehr zu bekommen ist. Viel spricht für diese These.

Begründung: Die in der Welt umlaufenden Papier-Finanzwerte sind derartig groß und die Gold & Silbermenge nur ein Bruchteil davon. Studien zeigen, dass erst bei einem Goldpreis von etwa 50.000 $/oz ein annäherndes Gleichgewicht gefunden wird.

Verschwindet durch ein Ereignis das Vertrauen in die Papierwerte und besonders in den US-Dollar wird eine gewaltige Flucht zuerst der Großanleger und Zentralbanken in das Gold stattfinden. Es gilt das alte Prinzip: den Letzten beißen die Hunde.

Verhalten für Anleger: Sollte dieses Szenario zum Tragen kommen, muss man bereits in physischem Gold und Silber drinnen sein, denn wenn die Krise beginnt, hat man kaum mehr eine Chance, hineinzukommen. Besonders dann, wenn Staaten wie die USA Devisenkontrollen verhängen, womit die Dollar-Wertpapiere praktisch wertlos werden. Der Politik ist in einem solchen Fall alles zuzutrauen.



3. Exponentieller, stetiger Anstieg (Hommel)

Jason Hommel hat ein Szenario mit einem einigermaßen exponentiellen, stetigen Anstieg entworfen. Ihm ging es mehr darum den endgültigen Höhepunkt des Goldpreises zu berechnen, als um einen zeitlichen Verlauf anzugeben. Ein solch „linearer“ Anstieg wird sicher nicht vorkommen.

In "Future Gold and Silver Prices" zeigt Jason Hommel diese linear exponentielle Extrapolation (Bild rechts).

Der Endpreis von etwa 50.000 $/oz ist realistisch, jedoch sicher nicht ein solcher Verlauf. Der Goldpreis-Anstieg wird wie bisher volatil und mit Einbrüchen und Spikes geschehen.

Verhalten für Anleger: Dieser Verlauf wäre der Einfachste, da man eigentlich nur das Ende des Anstiegs im Auge halten muss.





4. Modifiziertes 1970er Szenario (verschiedene Autoren)

In diesem Szenario gibt es einen Commodity- und Goldpreisanstieg wie Ende der 1970er Jahre, mit dem Unterschied, dass das Finanzsystem nicht mehr gerettet werden kann, d.h. der Goldpreis steigt massiv weiter und es kommt zum Zusammenbruch.

Wir sind in der Tat heute in einer ähnlichen Situation wie Ende der 1970er Jahre: massive reale Inflation, die inzwischen über die Energiepreise in alle anderen Preise geht, künstlich negative reale Zinsen. Inzwischen bricht überall in der Welt die Inflation aus den Rohstoffen und Energie in die Konsumgüter durch. Das Resultat ist, dass jetzt die Zinsen überall steigen müssen. Der massive Goldpreis-Ansteig seit Mitte 2005 ist ein Alarmzeichen. In der Tat konnte man in dieser Zeit mit Gold und anderen Rohstoffen mehr verdienen, als mit jeglicher Art von Schuld-Geldanlage (Sparbücher, Anleihen). Sagen Sie Ihrer Bank, dass Sie jetzt 10% Zinsen haben möchten, um die reale Konsumentenpreis-Inflationsrate von etwa 6% abzudecken. Noch besser, sagen Sie der Bank, dass Sie jetzt 25% Zinsen auf ihre Spareinlagen haben möchten, denn das sichere Gold bringt Ihnen mehr. Heute wird man Sie noch auslachen, aber nicht ewig.


Die Zentralbanken werden versuchen, die Zinsen solange untenzuhalten, bis die derzeitigen Methoden der Goldpreisdrückung endgültig versagen. Dass kann noch 2006 passieren. Die Entladung in den Goldpreis wird dann viel heftiger ausfallen, besonders wenn noch massenhaft Kreditausfälle dazukommen. Angst und Gier werden sich dann zusammen im Goldmarkt entladen, eine besonders starke Kombination.

Verhalten für Anleger: Sollte dieses Szenario zum Tragen kommen, sollte man bereits in physischem Gold und Silber drinnen sein, denn wenn die Krise richtig beginnt, kommt man nur zu einem viel höheren Preis hinein. Es wird wie bisher Korrekturen geben, jedoch sollte man keinesfalls "traden" (laufend hinein- und herausgehen). Am Besten einsteigen und drinnen bleiben. Es gilt dann das alte Sprichwort: "man verdient mehr, wenn man schläft".





Wahrscheinliche Entwicklung

Welches dieser Szenarien nun wirklich eintritt, ist derzeit (Juli 2006) nur recht schwierig vorauszusagen:

1.) Deflationsten-Szenario
Es ist unrealistisch, dass der Goldpreis bei einer deflationären Depresssion lange unten bleibt, da dann der Dollar wegen Kreditausfällen massiv abverkauft wird.

2.) Schneller Zusammenbruch, Gold verschwindet
Ist relativ realistisch, wenn man bedenkt, dass die US-Kriege im Irak und Libanon (Stellvertreterkrieg) verloren sind und ein massiver Dollar-Abverkauf jeden Tag kommen kann.

3.) Exponentieller stetiger Anstieg über lange Zeit
Dieses Szenario ist am wenigsten realistisch.

4.) Modifiziertes 1970er Jahre Szenario
Denn erst der steigende Goldpreis und der Abverkauf der Papier-Währungen, speziell des US-Dollars wird die Zentralbanken zwingen, die Zinsen anzuheben - wie in den 70er Jahren. Diese massiv steigenden Zinsen werden dann zu den Kredit- und Bondausfällen führen, was die Flucht noch mehr verstärkt. Es ist notwendig zu wissen, dass die Methode von 1979/80 mit hohen Zinsen heute das System nicht mehr retten kann. Die Geld-/Vermögens-Volumen sind heute aber um das 30 fache größer.


Silber

Silber wird insgesamt eine bessere Performance bringen als Gold. Mit einem Gold:Silber Verhältnis von 10:1 oder besser ist vorübergehend zu rechnen. Im Fall eines deflationären Einbruchs wird aber der Silberpreis weiter hinuntergehen als der Goldpreis. Dies deshalb, weil Gold das primäre monetäre Metall ist. Silber wird aber nachziehen.


Minen-Aktien

Gold- und Silberminen-Aktien haben gegenüber dem Metall einen Hebeleffekt von ungefähr 3:1. Das heißt, dass Minen-Aktien wahrscheinlich eine höhere Performance erzielen werden, als das Metall. Jedoch sind diese Aktien gegenüber dem physischen Metall in eigenem Besitz mit einer Reihe von Nachteilen behaftet. Nur Experten sollten darin investieren:

• sie sind Papier und vom Funktioneren des Finanzsystems und der Börsen abhängig, sowie der Möglichkeit ausländische Wertpapiere zu halten (Devisenkontrollen)
• die Minen selbst können verstaatlicht werden - geschieht derzeit in Südamerika
• besonders Junior-Explorers sind hoch riskant, da eventuell nichts gefunden wird oder keine produzierende Mine errichtet werden kann
• man muss sich in Geologie, bei der Beurteilung von Firmen und Management (Due Dilligence) und der politischen Risiken auskennen.

Gold/Silber-Zertifikate

Diese sind praktisch, da elektronisch und nicht mit schwerem Metall behaftet. Jedoch sind sie ein reines Versprechen der ausgebenden Bank. Wenn diese untergeht oder die Einlösung (ohnehin nur gegen Geld) einstellt, werden sie wertlos. Zertifikate ist die gefährlichste Form, daher Finger weg davon!



Zusammenfassung

Ich habe hier einige, in der Literatur vorkommende Szenarien für den zukünftigen Goldpreis-Anstieg dargelegt. Das 1970er Jahre Szenario ist dabei das wahrscheinlichste.

Man sollte daher den derzeit gedrückten Gold- und Silberpreis benützen, um einzusteigen, bzw. aufzustocken. Hier ist noch ein schönes Doomsday-Szenario von Chris Laird: "Dark New Day". Das Szenario ist teilweise auch für Europa anzuwenden, denn wenn der US-Dollar abstürzt, ist es auch um die anderen Währungen geschehen, denn diese sind alle Derivate des US-Dollars. Allerdings erwarte ich den "Event" wesentlich schneller. Protect Yourself!

Doug Casey, einer der besten Investoren der Welt in seinem International Speculator Newletter vom August 2006 zum US-Dollar:

Foreign owners of the big green mountain of U.S. dollars have become uneasy and generally are looking to sell. There’s no dumping, at least not yet. When it comes, the flight from the dollar will start slowly, then gain momentum before moving into a blow-off. Like a glacier sliding toward a cliff, movement that seems inevitable may take a puzzlingly long time to get underway. But once it does, things speed up at a surprising rate. Most of what happens happens rapidly, toward the end of the process.

If the U.S. dollar is going to fall in purchasing power, you might assume that competing currencies will rise against the dollar. That assumption may not be a safe one, given that the U.S. dollar makes up such a large part of the reserves of so many countries, and because all modern currencies are nothing more than paper and hope. The euro, which many see as the "not-the-dollar" bet, is in some ways even worse off than the dollar: not only does nothing back it up, but no one does, either. It’s the test tube baby of monies. While we believe that gold is the only workable alternative currency and that it will continue to regain its place as money in the global financial system, there are sure to be trading opportunities in other fiat currencies as the U.S. dollar comes under pressure.

Übersetzung: Fremde Besitzer des großen, grünen Bergs von US-Dollars fühlen sich nicht mehr wohl damit und suchen nach Möglichkeiten, diese zu verkaufen. Derzeit gibt es noch keinen großen Abverkauf - noch nicht. Aber wenn er kommt, wird die Flucht aus dem Dollar langsam starten, dann immer schneller werden und dann in eine regelrechte Fluchtbewegung eintreten. Wie ein Gletscher, der sich auf eine Klippe zubewegt, kann es sehr lange dauern bis es richtig losgeht. Aber wenn er richtig fließt, dann schnell. Die meiste Bewegung wird es gegen Ende des Prozesses geben.

Wenn der Dollar fällt, könnte man annehmen, dass andere Währungen gegenüber dem Dollar steigen. Diese Annahme muss nicht richtig sein, denn der Dollar macht den Großteil der Währungsreserven der meisten Länder aus. Außerdem sind alle Währungen der Welt nicht viel mehr als Papier und Hoffnung. Der Euro, auch von manchen als "Anti-Dollar" gesehen, sieht in manchen Kriterien noch schlechter als der Dollar aus: nicht nur ist nichts dahinter, es steht auch niemand hinter dem Euro. Er ist eine "Probe-Währung". Daher glauben wir, dass Gold die einzige wirklich brauchbare Alternativ-Währung ist und es wieder seinen Platz als Geld im globalen Finanzsystem einnehmen wird. Es wird aber "Trading"-Gelegenheiten in anderen Fiat-Währungen geben, wenn der Dollar unter Druck kommt.


Weise Worte. So ist die Realität, Im April 2006 hat die Flucht aus dem Dollar in das Gold bereits begonnen, wurde aber noch einmal gestoppt. Nicht umsonst stützen derzeit alle anderen Währungen den US-Dollar. Also werden sie mit ihm gemeinsam zur Hölle fahren. Wie es 1979 begonnen hat.

Daher ist das 1970er Jahre Szenario wahrscheinlich das Realistischeste.


© Walter K. Eichelburg
walter@eichelburg.com, www.hartgeld.com

sehe ich das. Die USA stehen nach um fünf Kriegsjahren der Situation gegenüber, daß etwa 1 Millionen Offiziere aus kriegserfahrung in die Betriebe kommen. Wir werden eine gewaltige Aufschwungbewegung nach zwei bis drei Jahren erleben. Der dann allerdings die 70er Situation folgen kann. Meine Empfehlung:
Vorübergehende Vertrauenskrisen des Dollar nutzen und US-Aktien kaufen; wenn das überhaupt möglich ist. Dann den ca. 5Jahre-Aufschwung abwarten
Dann könnte man in Gold einsteigen.
Also als Wichtigstes: bloß nich das Vertrauen in den größten Marktplatz Nordamerika und den größten pazifischen player verlieren.

Ich denke die haben es schwer wieder in ein Zivilleben zu schlüpfen. Das einzige Unternehmen das ich kenne, welches auf ausgediente Armyanghörige setzt ist Home Depot. Da habe ich allerdings auch sehr fragwürdige Dinge gelesen.

Gruß

Permanent

, daß der input von gesunden und pfiffigen jungen Leuten für ein Industrieland einen Faktor bedeutet. Zudem gibt es in den US riesige Rückführungsprogramme, wo Heimkehrer z.B. bevorzugt immatrikuliert werden.
Wie gesagt, ein Thema, über das es leider inopportun ist zu reden. Aber ich glaube, daß es wichtig ist.

Inflation, Manipulation, and Long-Term Market Trends

By Steve Saville          October 24, 2006 www.speculative-investor.com

Below is a slightly modified extract from a commentary originally posted at www.speculative-investor.com on 22nd October 2006.

Paul Volcker is often given credit for ending the inflation that ravaged the US economy during the 1970s, and yet the following chart shows that there was a sharp INCREASE in the year-over-year M2 growth rate (the inflation rate) during the first 4 years of his tenure as Fed Chairman. It's therefore not true that Volcker ended the inflation, which begs the question: why is he generally given credit for doing so?

Volcker is widely heralded as the man who defeated inflation because during his first 12 months as Fed chairman the main focus of inflation began to shift from physical assets such as gold to financial assets such as stocks and bonds. That is, shortly after he became Fed Chief the inflation began to manifest in ways that most people do not associate with an inflation problem. As long as financial asset prices are the ones doing most of the rising hardly anyone will link the rising prices to inflation, let alone consider them to be evidence of an inflation PROBLEM. It is only when gold and commodities are the main beneficiaries of inflation that people worry about an inflation problem.

Which leads us to the question: why did the focus of inflation begin to shift from physical assets to financial assets during the first year of Volcker's chairmanship?

There were, we think, a number of reasons, including the greater confidence inspired by the combination of a Volcker-led Fed and a Reagan-led government, but in our opinion the key factor was valuation: investments that tend to benefit from the perception of a burgeoning inflation problem had become extremely over-priced relative to investments that tend to benefit from the perception of a benign inflation environment. That is, the inflation trade had become way too popular with the investing public, bringing into play the "principle of ever-changing cycles"*. For example, at one point in 1980 the Dow Industrials Index was lower, relative to gold, than it had been at the bottom of the 1929-1932 bear market. With gold at a 60-year high relative to the Dow, with the average US stock having a dividend yield of more than 6% and a P/E ratio of well below 10, and with 10-year Treasury Notes yielding 13%, the markets were primed for major trend reversals.

Note that governments and central banks sold a lot of gold during the second half of the 1970s in an effort to change the trends in the markets, but to no avail. The trends continued, with the occasional interruption, until extremes of under/over-valuation were reached.

Moving ahead to 2000 we find the markets again primed for major trend reversals, but this time with gold at an all-time low relative to the Dow and with the average US stock being valued at around 25-times earnings. Major trend reversals again occurred, with a secular bull market in gold getting underway at the same time as a secular bull market in equities was ending (see chart below). Once again the trends reversed after extremes of under/over-valuation were reached.

On a related matter there's a theory that central banks have tried to suppress the gold price over the past 15 years by lending gold into the market, but regardless of whether this theory is right or wrong it is irrelevant from an investment perspective. We don't know the motivation for the large-scale lending of gold by central banks, but even if we make the assumption that the lending has been done with the aim of keeping a lid on the gold price it is clear that, as was the case with the large-scale gold selling by the official sector during the 1970s, it hasn't altered the long-term trends in the markets. As illustrated by the above chart, a new long-term bull market in gold began exactly when it SHOULD have begun: shortly after the end of the long-term bull market in US equities. As far as forecasting the gold price was concerned, the biggest challenge during the late-1990s was figuring out when the stock market bubble was going to burst. Bubbles, by their nature, tend to go on for much longer than a rational observer expects, and this was certainly the case for the US stock market bubble.

The thing about central bank gold lending is that it will only ever be possible for central banks to lend gold into the market when there are willing borrowers of the gold; and the quantity of willing gold-borrowers in the marketplace will move inversely to the quantity of market participants who think gold is in a bull market (the more people who think gold is in a bull market the smaller will be the pool of potential gold borrowers). This is because a potential gold borrower may well be interested in borrowing gold if he/she expects to be able to repay the loan with cheaper gold in the future, but if he/she believes that gold has a good chance of being more expensive in the future then the idea of borrowing gold will be a lot less appealing.

In other words, the large-scale lending of gold by central banks was a function of the long-term bear market in gold; it was not a cause of it. It undoubtedly exacerbated the downward trend, but the downward trend had to have already been in force in order for the lending/borrowing of gold to become popular.

A good example of how the behaviour of gold borrowers changes in response to changes in price trends is provided by Barrick Gold. Barrick, via its huge forward-sales book, was an important facilitator of central bank gold lending during the 1990s and the early part of the current decade. However, as soon as Barrick's management began to suspect that gold had embarked on a bull market it began to scale-out of the massive gold short position that had been built-up under the guise of hedging; tentatively at first and then aggressively as the bullish trend became more blatant. From being an 'exacerbator' of gold's downward trend during the 1990s Barrick has, over recent years, been an 'exacerbator' of gold's upward trend.

In summary: long-term trends end after valuations reach extremes and not a moment before, regardless of the attempts of governments to manipulate the trends to their own advantage. Furthermore, the fact that there is so much inflation under the current monetary system has resulted, and will continue to result, in markets reaching even greater valuation extremes prior to major trend reversals taking place.

*After the public becomes totally convinced that the future trend is going to be in one direction and bets accordingly the weight of its betting changes the odds to the point where the probability of these bets paying-off becomes exceedingly low. The public's enthusiasm for a particular type of investment or investing strategy therefore paves the way for the cycle to change and for a very different investment type or investing strategy to come to the fore.

*****

METALS STOCKSGold futures score nearly 5% weekly gainPlatinum rallies 12% for the week on speculation of ETF launchBy Myra P. Saefong, MarketWatchLast Update: 4:14 PM ET Nov 3, 2006
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures closed higher Friday to end the week with a nearly 5% gain, boosted by growing tension over Iran's nuclear activities as well as strength in oil from various threats to production. Strong U.S. employment data lifted the dollar, providing earlier pressure on gold which then limited the precious metal's gains. But platinum made the biggest gains among the precious metals this week, climbing 12% from last Friday's closing level on speculation over the launch of a platinum-based exchange-traded fund. As for gold it "dipped in a knee-jerk reaction" to the employment report -- "at least until the time when news of an Iranian missile test hit the wires and sent people back to the trading pits wishing to now buy," said Jon Nadler, an investment-products analyst at bullion dealers Kitco.com. Iran reportedly continued with missile tests overnight. Tehran has started 10 days of military maneuvers across the country. The exercise comes as the United Nations continues to discuss sanctions against Iran for refusing to stop enriching uranium. Against this backdrop, gold for December delivery rose by $1.40 to close at $629.20 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. After climbing a total of over $22 in three sessions, it ended the week 4.7%, or $28.20, above last Friday's closing level of $601. Meanwhile, the dollar rallied against major currencies, touching one-week highs versus the yen and Swiss franc, after a government report showed the labor market is on fairly firm footing, damping expectations the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates soon. See Currencies. Although U.S. non-farm payrolls grew by a lower-than-expected 92,000 in October, this was not the entire picture. The unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, the lowest level in more than five years, the Labor Department reported Friday. See Economic Report. Given the rally this week in gold, most analysts still expect gold prices to reach $1,000 and beyond, though not as early as some had previously expected. See Commodities Corner. "Gold has posted a strong performance this week, signaling the return of more bullish sentiment but a period of consolidation around $612 to $625 would be healthy, avoiding an overbought retracement and ensuring the longevity of the rally," said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com. Platinum rallyElsewhere in metals trading, January platinum closed up $45.20, or 3.9%, at $1,209.40 an ounce, after climbing 5.6% in the previous session. Strong buying has helped lift the contract to its highest levels since Sept. 14 and the contract ended the week with a gain of $129.70, or 12%. There has been speculation over the launch of a platinum exchange-traded fund, said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com. "Funds have obviously been aggressive buyers over the past 24-hours and are looking to rebuild some long positions in the market after 2 1/2-months of reducing their net long exposure," he said. "As well, the white metal still has very favorable fundamentals with the market still sitting on a small deficit due to increasing usage in diesel auto-cat[alysts]," he said. Platinum's sister metal palladium saw its December contract climb $8.35 to close at $335.10 an ounce, up 3.7% for the week. Rounding out action in the metals pit Friday, December silver futures fell 1.5 cents to finish at $12.635 an ounce, but it was 4.6% above last week's close. And after climbing more than 5 cents on Thursday, December copper closed up 3.1 cents at $3.3225 a pound. It's finished down 2.4% from last Friday's closing level. Copper supplies rose by 72 short tons to 23,174 short tons as of late Thursday, according to Nymex data. Gold inventories were unchanged at 7.53 million troy ounces and silver supplies were also flat at 105.9 million troy ounces. In equities, metals-mining shares closed higher, extending the modest gains from the previous session. The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (XAU : phlx gold silver index capital-weightNews , chart, profile, moreLast: 0.000.000.00%
12:00am 12/30/1899
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XAU0.00, 0.00, 0.0%) closed at 139.35, up 1% for the session, and up 4.8% for the week. The CBOE Gold Index (GOX : CBOE Gold IndexNews , chart, profile, moreLast: 145.31+1.93+1.35%
4:49pm 11/03/2006
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GOX145.31, +1.93, +1.3%) added 1.4% to end at 145.31 and the Amex Gold Bugs (HUI : amex gold bugs index equal-$ weightNews , chart, profile, moreLast: 327.26+4.16+1.29%
4:04pm 11/03/2006
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HUI327.26, +4.16, +1.3%) Index climbed 1.3% to finish at 327.26, with both benchmarks ending the week with gains of more than 5%. The DJ Wilshire Nonferrous Metals Index rose by 1.5% to close at 5,083.86. The DJ Wilshire Industrial Metals Index closed at 3,001.74, up 0.6%, and the DJ Wilshire General Mining Index climbed by 1.4% to end at 1,365.11. In metals news Friday, Kinross Gold Corp. (KGC : kinross gold corp com no parNews , chart, profile, moreLast: 13.26+0.10+0.76%
4:01pm 11/03/2006
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KGC13.26, +0.10, +0.8%) said that it swung to a third-quarter net profit of $50.3 million, or 14 cents a share. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call had been expecting the company to post earnings per share of 15 cents. Last year, the company posted a loss of $44 million, or 13 cents a share. Sales rose 23% to $223.6 million after realized gold prices rose by 41% compared to a year ago. Kinross shares closed up 0.8% at $13.26. Myra P. Saefong is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.

Observing Metals Futures to Predict the Present

By Roger Wiegand              November 2, 2006 www.tradertracks.com

One of the effective tools I use is the printed weekly commodities report in Barrons’s. The title is called “Commodities and Financial Futures”. I have a friend who swears he can trade and make money using only that information. This guy in reality is exposed to too many other sources of trading information so I suspect those other influences also help him. However, he uses those Barrons’s numbers to detect not only prices next year but cross trends among other markets which re-enforce his trading ideas.

How many of the current gold and silver traders and investors know that the April, 2007 gold futures seasonal high was $907? Open interest today on April ’07 is 10,215 for the 10-27-06 date Barron’s uses. Obviously not all of those contracts traded at that lofty price but that is the recorded contract trading high for the season so far. This is indicative of where gold might go not necessarily where it will go. The minute I saw that number it reminded me of a forecast by a colleague who forecast $950 gold for next spring. He very well could be right.

Gold futures April 2007 weekly with Bollinger Bands and fast stochastics 

We can see several leading indicators for gold on this chart. While this is the way April 2007 is trading right now, some of the patterns can give clues as to what comes next this fall of 2006. First, the top band line at 686.5 is indicative of today’s potential high for that time span. We forecast a fall 2006 high of 680-740 and this band is near the 680, which is a start.  Second, a 50% retracement which is quite common between the bands is 664.00. There is both support and resistance at that number which we visited many times this past summer. Third, we see numerous support levels at 600 from last February to the present. Fourth, we see nice rally moves in October which in about four weeks has moved gold’s price from 580 to nearly 630. Using one of our proprietary formulas this is telling me to watch 652 for next main resistance. Lastly, my favorite pattern on the entire chart is the fast stochastics rallying hard from the second week of September to the present. This is a leading edge power signal for gold that is not yet apparent in higher prices.

Silver might move faster than gold on a percentage basis this fall. 

March 2007 silver futures are showing us the most trading action with a 19,369 open interest printed on Barron’s last Friday report. That weekly chart (above) has some patterns similar to gold except for one important point. Notice the current prices are above the median for the last three reported weeks. Our top blue resistance line at 13.23 could be hit this week as silver futures for December were near $12.50 today, Wednesday, November 1, 2006.

The old support for December has been hanging around 11.80 but on this March 2007 contract we are continuously above 11.00. Last June after the price tumble this was the only date below 11.00 since March. Note how the fast stochastics in April were already dropping as the price was moving higher and topping. This divergence pattern helped to alert traders the top was either near or registered and it was time to exit or go short.

For now, we see price moving higher, riding the wave of those bullish fast stochastics touching the peak of 100.00. Look for the lower Bollinger Band, today at 10.54 to rise in new support to 11.00. The top band is moving toward 13.23 resistance but will probably overshoot and touch 13.50 resistance. Our forecast is for a top of 15.20 which is printed in the last Barron’s as the seasonal contract high.

As of today, using proprietary tools, we forecast the March, 2007 silver futures contract to top out at $19.23.

Amex Ishares Silver Trust (SLV) daily for 11-1-06 

The silver ETF opened at an inopportune time last May just as most stocks were generally selling across the board. This was unfortunate but has not dampened trader’s spirits as they came back in with a rush the following month. The 200 day moving average is $118.45 on good volume of 507,800. The trading range has been 95.49 low to a high of $144.64 with 10.5mm shares out. These shares are backed by over 100mm ounces in silver bullion with the reserves growing as more traders pile-in and trade the SLV. The larger trading months for silver are December and March. This coming December will be the first time the SLV has been available for that trading month and we forecast it should at least match the previous high near 144.00.

Even though resistance at 144 shall be strong, we think SLV can break through that price and see 165 for a 2006 high. For 2007 at the highest spring high our goal is 180.00.  In our opinion, this an excellent way to trade silver with good volume. This ETF, although quite young, has demonstrated its popularity and is showing bullish patterns.

At this point, the highest seasonal high we see in Barron’s for silver is the December, 2006 contract. However, remember it was not that long ago when silver was trading near $3.50-$4.00. Expect the contracts as a trading group to rise in this extended rally.

The advantage we have in trading silver markets is the explosive potential it has being a relatively thin market. When silver is on the move, a $.50 or $1.00 day is not uncommon. With that kind of buying pressure in the underlying bullion, associated market tools reflect this hot action and can move your positions quickly. Naturally, they can move lower just as fast if not faster, but using the right silver tools, markets and trends you can earn your slice out of the middle which all we ask for.

We prefer the Amex GDX-GDM but HUI is still a good example. 

The Relative Strength Index (top) is not our favorite tool but it does show the longer trends including the current basing and rally for late September and October. Those channel index vertical blue lines (lower box) show a bullish sloppy double bottom in July and October. The MACD lines are slow to react not having been moved much by the latest price up-ticks.

Another way to evaluate the May 2006 top through October is to ignore the smaller blips in price.  Follow the distinctive A wave down from the main high and following B wave up.  Next we see the C wave down finishing near October 1, 2006. The new rally wave set has just begun and should do much better after the November 7 elections.

We should have little trouble rising to 350 this fall (heavy resistance) with perhaps a challenge at 375, the major resistance 2006 top. In 2007 we expect the HUI to crack through 400 in a fine rally. It appears our spring 2006 wounded precious metals and their companion stocks are on the mend and moving higher once again.

Copper weekly futures for December, 2006 move in five month rectangle.

We like to follow rectangle patterns as the longer they move sideways the greater the breakout either up or down when this signal ends. Those Bollinger Bands are squeezing tighter indicating the vertically compact trading range is preparing for that next big move. As long as the general stock markets can remain aloft and levitate and business market signals do not cave in, this pattern could breakout long. Signals we are seeing today however, tell us a recession is coming in 2007 and industrial copper could be due for a corresponding correction.

Copper is being held back by recent lack of buying from China although they are back in the market with more purchases at lesser demand levels. With American auto and housing sales skidding, (both major users of copper) the bottom could drop out of copper prices taking us to $3.00-$2.90 support.

As we write this day of 11-1-06 after the close, copper futures are still holding above $3.19 which is a critical support level. The next support we see is the lower Bollinger Band of $3.157. If copper sells and closes three times below $3.19 we forecast it will continue lower to $3.00 lower support. Most importantly, After a July high in the fast stochastics, the trend has been steadily lower and all down hill. This pattern more than most others is saying copper will be selling in the near future. This signals a recession. 

In Summary

Look for rising gold and silver prices with companion base metals becoming weaker on waning industrial and housing markets. Precious metals were delayed seven weeks this fall by manipulative electioneering. The election contests are turning very nasty and geopolitical events are quite negative. It remains to be seen how far gold and silver can rally in this delayed fall event. To help your trading use Barron’s as a trading tool. Nonetheless, our major longer term precious metals bull market is intact. –Traderrog

Roger Wiegand is Editor of Trader Tracks a weekly newsletter reporting on precious metals and energy markets. Recommendations are made for specific trades with timing.   

 

 

in den kommenden Wochen alleine genung Grund liefern um die Edelmetallpreise zu treiben.http://www.ariva.de/board/273789?search_id=permanent&search_full=

aber bei 640-650 starker Widerstand nach oben; außerdem liegen die Tops knapp 3 Monate auseinander. Verfallstermin der Optionen 27.11., im Moment riesiger Überhang an Calls.

www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/maund110606.html

Gold Falls From Eight-Week High as Dollar Advances Against Euro

By Claudia Carpenter

Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Gold fell from an eight-week high after gains in the dollar reduced the metal's appeal as an alternative investment.

The euro and slumped against the dollar for a second session, and the yen also declined. Gold had climbed 7.8 percent in the last two weeks on speculation that the dollar would decline because of a slowing U.S. economy.

``There is quite a long history of negative correlation between the dollar and gold,'' said David Holmes, director of precious metals at Dresdner Kleinwort Group in London. Today's drop in gold is ``a bit of a reaction to last week's rally.''

Gold for immediate delivery fell $1.10, or 0.2 percent, to $626.30 an ounce at 10:08 a.m. in London after earlier rising to $629.90, the highest since Sept. 7.

The dollar traded $1.2708 per euro in London compared with $1.2718 in New York on Nov. 3. the dollar was also at 118.26 yen from 118.01 yen.

Silver dropper 5 cents to $12.56 an ounce. Platinum slipped $19.25 to $1,188.50 and palladium gained $1 to $334.

To contact the reporter on this story: Claudia Carpenter in Singapore at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: November 6, 2006 05:24 EST  

Q: Particularly in commodities - do you expect a Chinese slowdown as well to coincide with what’s happening in the US?

A: The Chinese government is doing its best to slow down the economy. They have had a slow down in real estate, they have had a real estate bubble and they know it. They said two years ago that they are going to solve the problem but they have been very slow, now they are trying to get tied on the entire thing. I do expect problems in Chinese real estate, which will have reverberations in other parts of the Chinese economy. If you are in energy in China or agriculture or tourism or in infrastructure - they all are doing very well but some parts of China are certainly going to slow down and have problems.

Q: What happens to money when the largest economy of the world and China goes into a slow down?

A: The good ones make money and the bad ones will lose money, the way it’s always been. In the 1970s, when we had major worldwide slowdowns, there were some people who made fortunes, there were some people who lost fortunes in that period of time, whereas as I am extremely bullish on Chinese tourism but I am also very bullish on Indian tourism. So, I suspect that no matter what happens if you are invested in Chinese or Indian tourism, you might make some money in the next several years no matter what happens. If you are in the financial community in America, you are probably going to lose money in the next few years. It just depends on where you are.

Q: What about emerging market equities as an asset class then? What would fund managers typically do in such a situation?

A: Most emerging markets have been overexploited in the last few years as far as I am concerned. I have been investing in what is now known as emerging markets for 30-40 years. I have recently sold out over the last six-eight months; I have sold out of all of my emerging markets except China. If I get a ride after they all have had a correction, then I will probably buy back into some of them. But at the moment, I would stay completely away from emerging markets.

Q: What would hedge funds as a breed do in this difficult period?

A: In every era, in every economy, in every period in history there are always some things doing well and there are always some things doing bad. In a bear market, you have more things doing badly and fewer things doing well. The key is to find the things which are doing well and own them and sell things that are not doing well.

Q: What do you think is the Fed’s next move?

A: The Fed essentially follows the market and it is not nearly as powerful as they might have been once upon a time. Now short-term interest rates have come down for a while, they will probably continue to be down for a while. But longer-term, the short-term interest rates in most of the world is going higher and it will continue to go much higher.

Q: What happens to commodities?

A: Some commodities may do well. I wouldn’t buy zinc today by any stretch of the imagination but if you are talking about corn or maize or sugar of some other things like them. Sugar is over 80% below its all-time high, I am sure it can go to 90% below its all-time high. Most agricultural commodities are in serious supply-demand deficit right now.

So, while some commodities certainly need consolidation, others are probably just beginning to go up. The way markets were in the 70s, gold went up 600% and then gold started reacting and consolidating and gold was down nearly every month for two years. Everybody gave up on gold and said see that bull market was over. After it consolidated for two years and everybody gave up, gold turned around and went up 850%. So, sure copper can go down 50%, or oil an go down 50% and scare everybody out of it, but basically we are still in a secular bull market.

Q: Do you think crude can go down to USD 40-50, is it possible?

A: It certainly can. If bird flue attacks Europe, I promise you crude is going to go lower than 40 and everything else is going to go down too, but crude and commodities would go down less than the other things. They will stay down a shorter period of time and they would be the first to start rallying again because that’s where the basic imbalances of supply and demand are.

Q: If you were a trader, would you be short on crude today?

A: If I were a trader, I wouldn’t be doing anything as I am a horrible trader! I am the one of the worst traders, so, whatever I would do, you should do the opposite. I don’t think I would buy crude right now. But as I said earlier, I wouldn’t buy zinc right now but I am also not selling my commodities by any stretch of the imagination. That’s where the secular bull market is.  

Q: Do you think gold could correct as well?

A: Absolutely, everything can correct. Gold is still 35%-40% below its all-time high, so gold atleast has that, it's not that gold has made a new all-time high and plays in glory or something. Gold is probably better turned right now than some of the other metals. But I think you will make more money in agriculture or in other things.

Q: What makes you so optimistic about agricultural commodities, particularly now?

A: Most agricultural products are far below their all-time high-end price. So they are depressed and people do not like to go into businesses, where we think it’s depressed. As you may know, the inventories of foodstuff around the world is the lowest since 1972, we haven’t had any major droughts in the world for a long time now. We used to have them with some regularity. If we started having them again with productive capacity and inventories down, who knows how higher things will go. In India you have started importing wheat for the first time in a long time.

Q: Do you keep an eye on the steel market as such?

A: Yes, a little bit. There is no futures market in steel, so I do not pay as much attention to steel versus some other more organised commodities. And even with steel, it seems that there might be an overcapacity developing in steel. Iron ore is the real commodity - that’s where the edge is, everybody is building steel mills especially the Chinese. So, you could have a glut of steel at the same time having a shortage of iron ore, in fact, too many steel mills will have a shortage of iron ore because they've got to have something to keep those steel mills running. I am not as optimistic about steel as I am about other things.

Q: What are your thoughts on India now?

A: It’s spectacular country and it’s the single best country in the world for a tourist. There is no better country, this has got a perfect combination of man-made and natural sights and depth and breadth of history and culture like no country in the world.

Q: Would you buy property in Goa for example?

A: I wouldn’t because I think it has already gone up a lot. If I were going to buy property, I would probably find other parts of India to buy properties but India is still not terribly friendly to foreigners and foreign capital.

Q: What would you buy in India if anything at all today?

A: Indian tourism should be it. Your government can mess up many things and they have. But the Chinese and the Indians are now friends again after being at war for four years. I would expect to see a huge boom in Chinese and Indian tourism. So, that’s the place I would be looking to invest, if I will.

Q: Through hotel companies or airline companies?

A: Hotels, travel agents, airlines, property in the right places if you know what you are doing. There are plenty of ways to make money in Indian tourism. Some of the tourists sights if you will, restaurants in the right places could do extremely well. It is hard for the Chinese to come to America as tourists, and as far as Indians - they do come to America. It’s difficult to go to Europe because it’s so expensive for Indians and for Chinese.

India is the single best country for tourism in the world. China could have been but they destroyed everything in the last 100 years or so. But I would suspect you are going to see a lot more tourists within China and a lot of them are going to go into India - that’s a place I will be putting a lot of money in on commodities. You have not developed much of a commodities market but you should be and could be one of the great commodity centres of the world.    

Goldproduktion fällt um 17%


London 10. November 2006

Das World Gold Council teilte gestern mit, dass die Goldproduktion im ersten Halbjahr 2006 um 17% gegenüber dem Vorjahr gefallen ist. Ausschlaggebend waren Produktionsrückgänge, die eine der Folgen des jahrelangen "Underinvestments" sind. Laut dem WGC ist die Produktion im bisherigen zweiten Halbjahr um zwei Prozent rückläufig.
Obwohl die Minen seit dem Jahr 2001 deutlich mehr in den Ausbau bestehender Minen sowie neue Explorationsprojekte gesteckt haben, reichen diese Maßnahmen bei weitem nicht aus. Das WGC schätzt, dass die Eröffnung einer neuen Mine zehn Jahre benötigt bzw. die Reinstandsetzung einer bestehenden Mine etwa fünf Jahre an Zeit kosten dürfte. Quelle: www.emfis.com

Na dann werden wir wohl unsere "Asche" zu E-Gold.com umparken müssen.
Trout

The silver battery provides the higher voltages and long life required for quartz watches. In fact, billions of silver oxide-zinc batteries are supplied to world markets yearly, including miniature sized batteries for watches, cameras, and small electronic devices and larger batteries for tools and commercial portable TV cameras.



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Bearings


Steel bearings electroplated with high purity silver have greater fatigue strength and load carrying capacity than any other type and are hence used in various hi-tech and heavy-duty applications.



It was a layer of silver on main shaft bearings of the 9,000 horsepower reciprocating engines of the World War II Superfortress that resolved the unacceptable failure rate of its giant engines. Silver, with its superior fatigue resistance, lubricity, corrosion resistance, and thermal conductivity came to the rescue.



Today's commercial and military jet engines deliver 35,000 to 100,000 pound thrusts under high-temperature conditions. Despite the far higher power and a far more rigorous internal environment, silver coated bearings continue to provide the superior performance and critical margin of safety for today's jet engines.



The fan/compressor/turbine rotating components that push the air through the jet engine are all attached to the main shaft. This main shaft rotates on steel ball bearings that roll within steel retaining rings, called cages. Similar bearings are required for the connecting gear boxes that drive accessories such as hydraulic pumps and fuel pumps; all rotate at much higher speeds than ground-based machinery. Steel has a poor coefficient of friction, but placing a layer of silver between the steel ball and the steel cage reduces the friction between the two to a minimum, increasing the performance of the engine and its accessories.



But silver also plays another critical role.



Safety in jet engines is a paramount consideration. Failure of any one of the jet engine bearings would be catastrophic. Rolling contact bearings are lubricated and cooled with synthetic engine oil. In the event of an oil interruption, such as a pump failure, the silver plated bearings provide adequate lubricity to allow a safe engine shut-down before more serious damage can occur. To prepare for such a possibility, the U.S. Federal Aviation Authority (FAA) and airplane manufacturers require fail-safe engine testing for the bearings. The test requires stopping the lubricating oil system for 15 seconds with the engine running at full power and then turning on the lubricating system, then turning off lubrication again for 15 seconds, and repeat for four successive cycles. The dry lubricity of silver always allows jet engines to pass the tests.



The use of silver in high-performance bearings provides the wide margin of safety demanded by Pratt & Whitney, General Electric, Rolls Royce, and all other producers of jet engines that power modern aircraft.



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Brazing and Soldering


Silver facilitates the joining of materials (called brazing when done at temperatures above 600oCelsius and soldering when below) and produces naturally smooth, leak-tight and corrosion-resistant joints. Silver brazing alloys are used widely in applications ranging from air-conditioning and refrigeration equipment to power distribution equipment in the electrical engineering sector. It is also used in the automobile and aerospace industries.



The unique combination of properties that silver provides has been important to plumbers, the manufacturers of appliances that use water, in electronics, and other manufacturing industries. Silver brazes and solders combine high tensile strength, ductility, thermal conductivity, with unusual wettability to most metals plus the added value of being bactericidal. Silver-tin solders are used for bonding copper pipe in homes not only to eliminate the use of lead-based solders, but to provide the piping with built-in antibacterial action. Major faucet manufacturers use silver-based bonding materials to incorporate all these advantages. Refrigerator manufacturers use silver-based bonding materials to provide the ductility required for constant changes in temperature of the cooling tubes providing the consumer with a long performing product.



In combination with other metals, silver-based alloys provide a melting range from 143oC to over 1000oC. Silver alloys provide strong bonds for ceramic-to-ceramic joints (e.g., high-power radar tubes), silicon chips to metallic surfaces (computers), and surface mounted electronic components soldered to printed circuit boards (all types of electronic devices).



Silver's advantageous alloying and wetting properties are especially useful to hermetically seal together the components of electron power tubes such as the radar tubes now being installed at US airfields to warn pilots of deadly wind shear, which can cause airplanes to crash.



In 2005, 42.3 million ounces of silver were used for brazing and soldering.



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Catalysts


One of the great discoveries of chemistry was that the efficiency of chemical reactions can be significantly increased in the presence of other elements or compounds that do not enter into the reaction. A hundred years ago it was discovered that silver was one of those elements. Ever since, silver has been essential to the production of chemicals for the US $300 billion plastics industry.



It is estimated that some 700 tons of silver are in continuous use in the world's chemical industry for the production of two compounds essential to the plastics industry. One is the reaction that produces ethylene oxide (the basic building block for flexible plastics), the other is the reaction that produces formaldehyde (the building block of solid plastics).



Since 1908, it has been known that silver greatly increases the efficiency of the production of formaldehyde from methyl (wood) alcohol. Here silver catalyses the oxidation of an alcohol into an aldehyde called formaldehyde, which is one of the most important industrial and research chemicals. It is an essential building block for a class of plastics with an estimated world production exceeding 15-million tons per year which includes adhesives, laminating resins for construction plywood and particle board, finishes for paper and electronic equipment textiles, surface coatings that resist heat and scratches, dinnerware and buttons, casings for appliances, handles and knobs, packaging materials, automotive parts, thermal and electrical insulating materials, toys, and the list goes on.



Silver is the only catalyst that will oxidize ethylene gas into ethylene oxide whose worldwide production exceeds 14-million tons per year. It is the building block for polyester textiles used to make all types of clothing and a great variety of specialty fabrics, it is also used for molded items (such as insulating handles for stoves, key tops for computers, electrical control knobs, domestic appliance components, and electrical connector housings), and Mylar tape which makes up 100% of all audio, VCR, and other types of recording tapes. About 25% of ethylene oxide production is used to produce antifreeze coolant for automobiles and other types of vehicles. An additional 10% is used to produce cleaning and wetting agents, and the remaining 5% to make cleaning solvents.



Oxidative Capacity - Silver is a recognized powerful oxidizer. Metallurgists have long known the unique affinity of silver with oxygen. Molten silver will hold ten times its volume in oxygen. On freezing, the contraction of silver vigorously ejects the oxygen; a dangerous activity known as spitting. Not all oxygen is ejected; much is retained in the silver lattice as well as adhered to its surface.



Atomic oxygen (O+²) fits within the silver lattice and as silver resists oxidation, it is an ideal atomic oxygen reservoir. As atomic oxygen (also called nascent oxygen) is extremely reactive, the silver is essentially a reservoir for oxidation reactions, wherein the oxygen is immediately available to react with any organic or inorganic compound it contacts.



Silver can be oxidized chemically, but the oxygen is so weakly held that AgO or Ag2O decomposes below 200°C. Furthermore, atomic oxygen adsorbed on the silver surface recombines to form molecular O2 at about 300°C. [See: C.B. Wang, G. Deo and I.E. Wachs, "Interaction of Polycrystalline Silver with Oxygen, Water, Carbon Dioxide, Ethylene, and Methanol: In Situ Raman and Catalytic Studies," Jour. of Physical Chemistry B, Vol. 103, p. 5645 (1999)].



The resistance of silver to oxidation is such that silver will not sustain combustion even if ignited [See: R.W. Monroe et al, "Metal Combustion in High-Pressure Flowing Oxygen," Flammability and Sensitivity of Materials in Oxygen-Enriched Atmospheres, ASTM STP 812, Am. Soc, Testing Mats., Conshohocken, PA, (1983)].



Because the spaces in its crystal structure permit oxygen atom to flow, silver is used as a filter to separate it from other gases and provide an output of pure atomic oxygen for oxidation studies. [See: R.A. Outlaw, "O2 and CO2 Glow-Discharge-Assisted Oxygen Transport Through Ag," Jour. Applied Physics, Vol. 68 (3), p. 1001-1004 (1 August 1990).]



Raman (infrared) spectroscopy and laser-equipped spectrometers have revealed the role silver plays in catalyzing oxidation reactions. In the catalytic reaction chamber, as air flows over pure silver crystals individual oxygen atoms (O+²) are adsorbed onto the silver surface. These highly charged (O+²) atoms aggressively react (oxidize) with any gaseous organic compounds flowing past. In the case of methyl alcohol (CH3OH) (industrial wood alcohol), the atomic oxygen oxidizes the hydrogen atom from the -OH group to form water (H2O) and with the hydrogen removed the compound becomes methyl oxide (CH2O) (formaldehyde). A detailed analysis of these reactions is given in: [C.B. Wang, G. Deo and I.E. Wachs, "Interaction of Polycrystalline Silver with Oxygen, Water, Carbon Dioxide, Ethylene, and Methanol: In Situ Raman and Catalytic Studies," Jour. of Physical Chemistry B, Vol. 103, p. 5645 (1999)].



Multiple Catalysts - The action of silver may be enhanced by the addition of other metals or compounds. For example, the combination of silver with certain alkali metal salts, such as CsCl, lowers the desorption energy of long chain olefins (e.g. CH2=CH-CH3) and by doing so permits removal of a hydrogen atom by oxidation without reducing the entire compound to CO2 and H2O. The catalytic conversion of butadiene and other hydrocarbons into their oxides by this technique is being used by the Eastman Chemical Company, Kingsport, TN, to provide chemicals not otherwise produced economically. [See: "The Selective Epoxidation of Non-Allylic Olefins Over Supported Silver Catalysts," John Monnier, Studies on Surface Science, Catalysis, Vol. 110, pp. 135-149 (1997), 3rd World Congress on Oxidation Catalysis, (1997)].



Additional catalysts downstream can enhance the overall efficiency of silver. For example: in current practice, a stream of gaseous methanol (wood alcohol) over silver crystals results in 90% conversion to formaldehyde. By conducting the output stream over an additional bed of copper crystals, much of the remaining methanol can be converted bringing the total conversion to better than 93%. This might appear to be a small addition, but considering the amounts involved (15 million tons per year) it is economically significant as the combination provides a higher purity formaldehyde requiring less intensive purification. [See: Formaldehyde Production, U.S Patent, No. 6,147,263, Nov. 14, 2000, I. E. Wachs, Lehigh University, Bethlehem, PA].



The oxidizing power of silver clearly has wide application. An interesting example is the application of silver catalysts to convert waste gas from Kraft pulp mill operations into valuable industrial chemicals. Emissions from Kraft pulp mills are largely methanol with some organic sulfides and a smaller amount of terpenes (long chain hydrocarbons). Instead of burning this gas, sorptive resins and molecular sieves capture the terpenes, and the silver catalyst converts the methanol, dimethyl sulfide and other sulfur compounds into formaldehyde, which is treated to reduce acidity to commercial levels, then transported to consumers providing a positive income stream to the mill. [See: Treating Methanol-Containing Waste Gas Streams, U.S. Patent 5,907,066, May 25, 1999, and Production of Formaldehyde from Methyl Mercaptans, U.S. Patent 5,9969.191, October 19, 1999, I.E. Wachs, Lehigh University, Bethlehem, PA].



Liquid Phase Catalysis - In contrast to the industrial use of silver catalysts in gaseous phase reactions (as above), silver is equally effective as an oxidant in aqueous phase reactions. For the Nature2TM canister [see: www.Nature2.com], silver is deposited as microcrystals on an aluminum oxide (alumina) support in a canister through which water is conducted. Here silver provides an extremely active reaction chamber where bacteria, viruses, or other organic material are oxidized to destruction. Additionally, certain inorganic materials in the stream passing over the silver-alumina are oxidized to form relatively stable oxygen-rich compounds, which continue to sanitize the water downstream. Tests have demonstrated an instantaneous 99% kill rate for bacteria, with complete removal of E. coli (a fecal pollutant) within a 2.0 to 2.5 seconds contact time. The addition of ozone into the input stream powerfully increases the oxidative capacity of the canister. Studies reveal its efficacy to purify drinking, agricultural, and food process water, as well as treatment of wastewater.



Silver Catalyst Manufacturers - Academy Corp., Albuquerque, NM (505-345-1805) Degussa, Hanau, Germany (011-49-6181-59-5770) W.C. Heraeus, gmbh, Hanau, Germany (011-49-6181-35-4833) Scientific Design, Inc., Little Ferry, NJ (201-641-0500) (ethylene oxidation only) Stonehart Associates, Madison, CT (203-245-7507) (silver-plated carriers only). Tanaka Kikinzoku, Indianapolis, IN (317-598-0796).



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Coins


Silver, being a rare and noble metal, was a more desirable medium of exchange than beads, feathers, shells, and the like. Its use as a medium of exchange is known throughout all recorded history. Coins, in the sense of having an authenticating stamp on them, began to appear in the eastern Mediterranean during 550 B.C. By 269 B.C. Rome adopted silver as part of its standard coinage. Silver became the trading medium for merchants throughout the civilized world. (Gold being reserved for governments and the wealthy.) Today silver coins continue to be the medium of exchange wherever paper is not acceptable, for example, in parts of Africa and the Middle East. One example of a trade coin is the Empress Maria Theresia Taler, first minted in Austria in 1741. It was standardized in 1780 as 28 grams and 833/1000 silver (the remainder copper). Some 370 million of these 1780 dated coins have been minted up to 1996 and a large proportion remain in circulation today.



Until the late 19th century most nations were on a silver standard with silver coins forming the main circulating currency - silver being in greater supply and of less value than gold, thus being more practical for everyday payments. As gold became more plentiful, however, silver was slowly replaced although it is still used in some circulating coins as well as in bullion coins for investors.



In the U.S., silver is used only in bullion, commemorative and proof coins. Mexico is the only country currently using silver in it's circulating coinage. During the past decade, the United States, Canada and Mexico began issuing pure silver bullion coins with nominal face values sold at a small premium over their bullion value (not their face value).



In 1982, Mexico began minting a 999-fine (99.9% pure) silver Libertad ranging in weight from 1/20 oz. to 5 ounces; over 20 million coins have been sold. The U.S. Mint issues a 999-fine Silver Eagle (a one ounce bullion coin with a face value of $1) bullion coin; over 100 million have been sold since 1986. The Royal Canadian Mint issues a 5 dollar 9999-fine silver bullion coin, the silver Maple Leaf; over 11.8 million have been sold since 1988. Australia has issued a 5-dollar, 1 ounce .999 fine silver bullion coin, the Kookaburra; over 8 million have been sold since 1990.





Top 15 Issuers of Silver Coins and Medals in 2005
(in million ounces)
United States 16.6
Germany 10.4
Mexico 2.6
China 1.8
Spain 1.7
Canada 1.6
Australia 1.0
Austria 0.6
France 0.5
Poland 0.5
UK & Ireland 0.5
Russia 0.4
Switzerland 0.3
Portugal 0.3
Thailand 0.2
Other Countries 1.6
WORLD TOTAL 40.6




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Electrical


Silver is the best electrical conductor of all metals and is hence used in many electrical applications, particularly in conductors, switches, contacts and fuses. Contacts, a junction between two conductors that can be separated and through which a current can flow, account for the largest proportion of electrical demand.



When Samuel F. B. Morse tapped out, "What hath God wrought," on May 24, 1844, the contact points on his telegraph were silver. The high amperage required to push the signal over iron wires from Baltimore to Washington, D.C., demanded a high capacity, non-corroding make/break contact; only silver could do the job.



Ordinary household wall switches, which normally carry high electric current for electrical appliances from irons to refrigerators, use silver. Silver is the metal of choice for switch contacts because it does not corrode, which would result in overheating, which could lead to fire. The U.S. electric switch market is on the order of $2.7 billion per year.



Today switch manufacturers play it safe by using high-performance silver for ordinary household switch and circuit breaker contacts. Less expensive metal contacts have high resistance which can overheat and cause a fire, says a major supplier of switch contacts. It is this consideration of liability that assures the public of continued preference for silver in switch contacts. With an increasing concern for quality, warranties become more important, and extended warranties mean that industry cannot chance even one failure in a million; that level of performance requires silver.



From the very beginning of electricity, silver has been the metal of choice for switch contacts because of its low contact resistance, high thermal conductivity, mechanical wear resistance, chemical stability (it does not corrode), low polymer formation (the build-up of an insulating carbon-polymer film over the contact as a consequence of arcing), and cost-effectiveness (it provides the longest functional life).



"Silver's tendency to tarnish does not affect its electrical performance," says a report of a 20-year exposure test of thousands of electrical contacts at 4,000 locations in different environments ranging from business offices to severe industrial locations such as petroleum refineries. The tests conducted by the Battelle-Columbus Laboratories, Columbus, OH, show that silver tarnish films are soft and readily wiped off with use; therefore in the field they perform well on tarnish because they are tough and offer high resistance. Films on other metals like copper, even when the corrosion is barely visible, cannot be tolerated.



Over 50 categories of electrical components incorporating silver as the contact material are listed by The National Electrical Manufacturers Association, Washington, D.C. These range from silver thick films that are used to make membrane switches which carry 5 volts or less for electronic systems, to large circuit breaker contacts required to interrupt or close the circuits of 75,000-volt power distribution lines.



The use of silver for motor control switches is universal. In the home, wall switches, timing devices, thermostats, sump pumps, and virtually all electrical appliances use silver contacts. A typical washing machine requires 16 silver contacts to control its electric motor, pump, and gear clutch. A fully-equipped automobile may have over 40 silver-tipped switches to start the engine, activate power steering, brakes, windows, mirrors, locks, and other electrical accessories.



Relays are another important market for silver contacts. Relays are used when low voltage switches (such as membrane switches) are used to activate considerably higher voltage or amperage switches. The increasing use of automated appliances has increased the number of silver contacts manufactured in the US.



Electric motor control switches use the largest amount of silver for each contact. The range of applications is enormous, covering: washing machines, dryers, automobile accessories, vacuum cleaners, electric drills, elevators, escalators, machine tools, and so on up to railway locomotives and marine diesel engines. Silver contacts start motors, set them to run forward or reverse, or at partial or full power. The silver contacts carry electrical power ranging from a fraction of an ampere, for small appliances, to 600-ampere loads required for oil-well drilling motors; their performance is required to be flawless.



Nearly half of the 20 million troy ounces of silver consumed in the USA yearly for contacts and conductors is used for motor controls.



The circuit breaker is the second major user of silver for contacts. For circuit breakers, silver combines the highest heat conductivity and the highest electrical conductivity of all metals, with almost unlimited performance. Circuit breakers are used to interrupt loads ranging from 10 amperes (small household lines) to 4000 amperes (high-tension power lines).



The circuit breaker is the most demanding use of silver contacts because the temperature of the arc generated by the interruption of high electrical power often exceeds the melting point of silver. As a consequence, silver is alloyed or infiltrated into other metals such as Tungsten to provide long-term performance.



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Electronics


In electronics, silver is also widely used. Uses include silk-screened circuit paths, membrane switches, electrically heated automobile windows, and conductive adhesives.



Every time a home owner turns on a microwave oven, dishwasher, clothes washer, or television set, the action activates a switch with silver contacts that completes the required electrical circuit.



The majority of the keyboards of desk-top and lap-top computers use silver membrane switches. These are found behind the buttons of control panels for cable television, telephones, microwave ovens, learning toys like touch and tell or speak and spell, and the keyboards of typewriters and computers. The low-current capacity of the membrane switch matches the low electrical current used for digital electronics. In an office environment, membrane switches are normally rated for a life of 20 million cycles. Typically, the membrane switch is made of a conductive ink of silver flakes in a polyester binder with carbon. This thick film is then silk-screened in an electrical circuit pattern onto each of two Mylar sheets. The two surface patterns of silver face each other close enough so that gentle touch by a finger will make the electrical contact. A latching transistor circuit is simultaneously activated to keep the circuit closed after the membrane is released.



Today's electrical appliances, such as microwave ovens, are controlled by membrane switch panels, where the contacts are silver. Membrane switch panels are found in automobiles and under the keys of personal computers. Due to their reliability and wide use, the silver-contact membrane switch market in the U.S. is a multi-million dollar industry.



The use of silvered windshields in General Motor's all purpose vehicles reflects away some 70% of the solar energy that would otherwise enter the car, reducing the load on air conditioners in summer.



A universal safety feature of every automobile produced in America, and most throughout the world, is the silver-ceramic lines fired into the rear window. The heat generated by these conductive paths is sufficient to clear the rear window of frost and ice.



Printed circuit boards (PCBs) use silver in two ways: in solders for surface mounted components (see Brazing and Soldering) and for connecting paths of electronic circuitry.



Epoxy resin/silver formulations provide very low viscosity (important in filling holes connecting components) and higher silver content than is possible with other resins. Furthermore, silver-filled resins provide higher conductivity than copper systems, allowing smaller volume conductors and as well do not allow silver to migrate under any condition, which is not true of many other resin systems.



Du Pont’s laboratory studies have shown silver-epoxy thick films to provide a conductive network of extended reliability, higher conductivity, improved solderability, and more rapid assembly over other metal formulations. And silver particulate fillers provide superior long-term performance in polymer thick films. Copper, for example, is often unstable and deteriorates with age.



The critical importance of printed circuitry boards in the electronics industry is shown by the value of monolithic integrated circuits. Printed circuit boards are essential to the electronics that control the operation of aircraft, automobile engines, electrical appliances, security systems, telecommunication networks, mobile telephones, television receivers, etc.



Giant magnetoresistance is a newly discovered magnetic property of multiple layered silver/nickel-iron alloy films, each about a millionth of an inch thick. These films are being exploited by computer hard drive manufacturers. The films are potential candidates for the next generation of read-out heads for personal computer storage systems.



Not only do these new silver alloys exhibit extremely high changes in electrical resistance in response to infinitesimally small magnetic signals (hence the term giant magnetoresistance) but importantly the films maintain their physical dimensions unchanged despite the rapidly changing magnetic fields.



Elsewhere, the combination of giant magnetoresistance with zero changes in dimension in magnetostriction during recording head operations means that there is no unwanted shift in the optimal sensing function of the read head held over the spinning magnetic field of a personal computer's hard drive. By avoiding dimensional changes during head operations, unwanted magnetic fields generated by the recording head are eliminated. This results in improved fidelity in the playback of data, music, and video recordings, and larger storage capacity. Also eliminated is the expansion/contraction of the head that would limit its useful life.



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Electroplating


The ease of electrodeposition of silver accounts for silver’s widespread use in coating. The plating thickness of some items, such as fuse caps, is less than one micron although the silver then tarnishes more easily. Coatings of two to seven microns are normal for heavy duty electrical equipment.



Silver plating is used in a wide variety of applications from Christmas Tree ornaments to cutlery and hollowware.



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Jewelry and Silverware


Silver possesses working qualities similar to gold but enjoys greater reflectivity and can achieve the most brilliant polish of any metal. To make it durable for jewelry, however, pure silver (999 fineness) is often alloyed with small quantities of copper. In many countries, Sterling Silver (92.5% silver, 7.5% copper) is the standard for silverware and has been since the 14th century.



The copper toughens the silver and makes it possible to use sterling silver for cutlery, bowls and other decorative items such as picture frames.



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Medical Applications


While silver's importance as a bactericide has been documented only since the late 1800s, its use in purification has been known throughout the ages. Early records indicate that the Phoenicians, for example, used silver vessels to keep water, wine and vinegar pure during their long voyages. In America, pioneers moving west put silver and copper coins in their water barrels to keep it clean.



In fact, "born with a silver spoon in his mouth" is also a reference to health as well as wealth. In the early 18th century, babies who were fed with silver spoons were healthier than those fed with spoons made from other metals, and silver pacifiers found wide use in America because of their beneficial health effects.



Today silver is used in many health-care products. Specifically silver sulfadiazine is used by every hospital in North America to prevent bacterial infections in burn victims and allow the body to restore naturally the burnt tissue. It is used worldwide under the trade name "Silvadiene." Increasingly, wound dressings and other wound care products incorporate a layer of fabric containing silver for prevention of secondary infections. Surgical gowns and draperies also include silver to prevent microbial transmission. Other medical products containing silver are catheters and stethoscope diaphragms.



In a world that is showing increasing concern about the spread of diseases silver is being increasingly tapped for its biocidal properties. Research is ongoing on the use of silver and its compounds for therapeutic uses and on its potential use as a disinfectant in hospitals and other medical facilities. Already, climate control system components and ductwork using a silver containing coating are in place to prevent the transmission of bacteria that cause Legionnaires disease. The successful preparation of nano-sized silver particles offers additional capabilities in the fight against pathogenic organisms and research programs are under way to exploit these features.



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Mirrors and Other Coatings


Silver’s unique optical reflectivity, and its property of being virtually 100% reflective after polishing, allows it to be used both in mirrors and in coatings for glass, cellophane or metals.



Everyone is accustomed to silvered mirrors. What is new is invisible silver, a transparent coating of silver on double pane thermal windows. This coating not only rejects the hot summer sun, but also reflects inward internal house heat. A new double layer of silver on glass marketed as "low E squared" is sweeping the window market as it reflects away almost 95% of the hot rays of the sun, creating a new level of household energy savings. Over 250 million square feet of silver- coated glass is used for domestic windows in the U.S. yearly and much more for silver coated polyester sheet for retrofitting windows.



One out of every seven pairs of prescription eyeglasses sold in the U.S. incorporates silver. Silver halide crystals, melted into glass can change the light transmission from 96% to 22% in less than 60 seconds and block at least 97% of the sun's ultraviolet rays. The change is endlessly reversible.



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Photography


When Joseph Nicephore Niepce tested the first photographic image obtained through a camera-like device in 1813, it was silver nitrate that made it possible.



The photographic process is based on the presence of silver halide crystals suspended on an unexposed film, which, when exposed to light, are set in such a way that they are selectively reducible to metallic silver by agents called developers. Approximately 5,000 color photographs can be taken using one ounce of silver.



Although a wide variety of other technology is available, silver-based photography will retain its pre-eminence due to its superior definition and low cost. From it's very outset, silver halide has been the material that records what is to be seen in the photograph. As little as 4 photons of light activate silver halides which amplify that incident light by a factor of one billion times. In today's photography, silver halides are coupled with dyes that bring the color of the world around us into permanent record. An estimated 196 million troy ounces of silver were used worldwide in 2003 for photographic purpose.



William Conrad Roentgen's discovery of x-rays in 1895, led to his discovery that they activate silver halide crystals. This revolutionized medical diagnosis. Radiographic use of silver worldwide consumed 90 million troy ounces in 2002.



Today, X-ray inspection is also essential to ensure integrity of metallic castings from small truck axles to the huge aircraft-carrier steam valves used to propel airplanes from a flight deck. Of all the inspection techniques, it is the image on a silver halide x-ray film that provides the clearest indication of flaws deep within metallic components.



Non-destructive x-ray testing is a critical element in product approval, ensuring the safety of all types of transportation conveyances from ships to aircraft. It remains the most effective way to reveal flaws in metallic components. The continuing requirement for the specially-sensitized silver halide film in which metallic flaws leave their identifiable signatures that can be compared with standard photographs will assure silver's continued preeminence for this essential quality control technique.



Silver plays an additional role in the x-ray tube itself. The x-ray generator is encased in a glass envelope sealed to its metallic base with a silver-alloy braze. Silver securely wets both the glass and the metallic base, providing a secure hermetic seal which will withstand rapid heating and cooling of the tube during exposures which may range from 30 seconds to 15 minutes.



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Solar Energy


Silver paste is used in 90 percent of all crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells, which are the most common solar cell, according to the Photovoltaic Technology Division of the U.S. Department of Energy. And all silicon cells used in space to power satellites use silver in the form of evaporated metal to make the electrical contact.



The electricity generated by photovoltaic cells is highly reliable. As soon as sunlight strikes, power begins to flow. Sunlight striking silicon cells generates electrons, which the silver conductors collect to become a useful electric current. The conductive silver, which also enhances reflection of the sunlight, is applied in the form of a glass paste with a minimum of 90 percent silver along the top and across the bottom of the silicon crystal. When fired, the silver forms a complete circuit collecting solar energy and conducting it to the power supply line. A group of roofing-tile solar cells can generate sufficient power to provide a house and also fill batteries to supply power after dark.



Silver plays yet another role in the collection of solar energy: efficient reflection of solar heat. Silver is the best reflector of thermal energy (after gold).



Near Barstow, California, 1,926 silver-coated mirrors reflect solar heat onto black-coated stainless steel tubes atop a 300-foot tower. This heats the tubes and the nitrate salt inside them to over 1050oF. The scalding hot salt is then piped to boilers turning water to steam which drives steam turbines geared to electric generators. They now generate sufficient electricity to power 10,000 homes.



Designated Solar Two, it is the most advanced solar power plant in the world. It incorporates the research into solar reflective technology conducted since 1982 by the Sandia National Laboratories, DOE, Sandia, NM, and the Southern California Edison Company, Irwindale, CA.



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Water Purification


Silver is employed as a bactericide and algaecide in an ever increasing number of water purification systems in hospitals, remote communities and, more recently, domestic households.



Silver ions have been used to purify drinking water and swimming pool water for generations. New research into silver compounds is providing physicians with powerful, clinically effective treatments against which bacteria cannot develop resistance.



An increasing trend is the millions of on-the-counter and under-the-counter water purifiers that are sold each year in the United States to rid drinking water of bacteria, chlorine, trihalomethanes, lead, particulates, and odor. Here silver is used to prevent the buildup of bacteria and algae in the filters. Of the billions of dollars spent yearly in the U.S. for drinking water purification systems, over half make advantageous use of the bactericidal properties of silver. New research has shown that the catalytic action of silver, in concert with oxygen, provides a powerful sanitizer, virtually eliminating the need for the use of corrosive chlorine.



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   Print this article Close This WindowGold trims gains but sentiment seen bullish
Mon Nov 13, 2006 6:30 AM ET

By Atul Prakash

LONDON (Reuters) - Gold pared gains in Europe on Monday after moving overnight toward two-month highs on a weaker dollar as investors paused for a breather, dealers said.

The market was poised for volatility as the year draws to a close, with movements in the U.S. currency and oil prices as well as seasonal physical demand expected to influence prices.

"Against the background of a decelerating U.S. economy, there are more indicators at the moment for a decrease in interest rates. And in such an environment, it's quite difficult for the dollar to gain strength considerably," said Michael Widmer, metals analyst at Calyon Corporate and Investment Bank.

A weaker dollar makes dollar-priced gold cheaper for holders of other currencies.

Gold <XAU=> hit an intraday high of $632.40 an ounce, higher than $627.00/628.00 late in New York on Friday, and was quoted at $628.00/629.00 by 1109 GMT.

Gold rallied to $636.50 on Friday on the back of a falling dollar and speculation China could buy the yellow metal, but profit taking erased much of the gains. It ended more than $6 an ounce lower in the U.S. market.

The dollar was under pressure after People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan reiterated that Beijing planned to diversify its estimated $1 trillion in reserves.

Dealers said last week's rally was likely to restore investors' confidence in gold amid worries that central banks might gradually shift their foreign exchange reserves away from the dollar.

"While there is always the chance that gold might recover ground lost in recent months and revisit the highs of 2006 before the end of the year, the chances of this are in the hands of investors, watching the performance of the U.S. currency," Fortis Bank said in a report.

"The prospects are for a spell of trading within a fairly broad range."

Gold has been volatile since spiking to a 26-year high of $730 in mid-May. It tumbled to a four-month low of around $559 in early October, when investors ditched precious metals.

"It's not just technicals at this stage. The fact that U.S. dollar looks likely that it's going to test the outside of their range again will be pretty bullish for the gold market," said analyst Tobin Gorey of Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

In other precious metals, silver <XAG=> fell to $12.92/12.99 an ounce from $12.99/13.06 in New York and off Friday's two-month high of $13.14.

Platinum <XPT=> slipped to $1,199/1,204 an ounce from $1,206/1,212, while palladium <XPD=> eased to $326/331 an ounce from $330/335 in the U.S. market.

(Additional reporting by Lewa Pardomuan in Singapore)

---

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Chartists see gold and silver scaling new peaksFri Dec 1, 2006 1:55 PM GMT Email This Article | Print This Article | RSS [-] Text [+] By Atul Prakash LONDON (Reuters) - Gold is expected to close the year on a stronger note and has potential to set new highs in 2007, but the market will continue to remain choppy in the near term, chartists said on Friday. "I think we are going to go back initially to the $690-an-ounce area and at some stage to revisit that peak (set) in May this year," said independent metals analyst Cliff Green."There would still be plenty of short-term dips in this market," he said, but added that any near-term weakness should be aggressively bought. Gold climbed to a 16-week high of $648.60 an ounce on Friday on a dollar weakness, but slipped to $644.50/645.25 by 1:30 p.m., down from $647.20/648.20 in New York late on Thursday. Gold rallied to a 26-year high of $730 in mid-May as funds poured money into commodities amid worries about rising energy costs, tensions in the Middle East and uncertainties in the dollar's outlook. It hit an all-time high of $850 an ounce in January 1980. Robin Wilkin, technical analyst at J.P. Morgan, said gold's broad trading range of $550-$700 in 2006 was going to give way for a move towards the record high. "(But) half of the problem is that a lot of gamma trading is going on. So every time it rallies, all the options guys are just selling loads and it's dampening the effect," he added.   Continued... © Reuters 2006. All Rights Reserved.  |  Learn more about Reuters  

www.handelsblatt.com/news/Boerse/...old-lockt-die-anleger.html

HANDELSBLATT, Dienstag, 30. Januar 2007, 09:23 Uhr

Stabiler Aufwärtstrend

Charttechniker erwarten steigenden Goldpreis

Von Frederik Altmann

Nach einer Phase der Konsolidierung steht der Goldpreis nun kurz vor einem technischen Kaufsignal. Ein Blick auf die langfristige Kursentwicklung zeigt einen stabilen Aufwärtstrendkanal, der Anfang 2006 nach oben verlassen wurde.

<!--No Banner!--> Chartanalye FRANKFURT. Nach einer kurzen Konsolidierung folgte eine Aufwärtsbeschleunigung bis zum Mai-Höchststand bei rund 730 US-Dollar. Anschließend fielen die Notierungen in einer ersten Abwärtswelle innerhalb weniger Wochen bis auf ein Niveau von 554 Dollar. Es folgte eine deutliche Kurserholung, bevor im Rahmen einer zweiten Verkaufswelle die Trendunterstützung im Herbst vergangenen Jahres erneut getestet und bestätigt wurde. Die gesamte Korrekturbewegung erinnert an ein abgeschlossenes, dreiteiliges A-B-C-Muster. Geradezu idealtypisch zogen die Notierungen zwischen Oktober und Dezember wieder an und bildeten dabei ein fünfteiliges so genanntes Impulsmuster aus. Die folgende vierwöchige Konsolidierung verlief ohne markante Abwärtsdynamik und wurde Anfang des Jahres abgeschlossen. Seitdem tendieren die Notierungen wieder aufwärts, wobei sich neue Dynamik aufzubauen scheint. Bereits bis Mitte 2007 ist damit zu rechnen, dass sich der Goldpreis wieder auf die Marke von 730 Dollar zubewegt. Unter mittel- bis langfristigen Gesichtspunkten dürfte es sich hierbei lediglich um ein Etappenziel, aber noch nicht um das Ende der Gesamtbewegung handeln. In das positive Szenario passen aktuelle Stimmungsumfragen. Zusammenfassend lässt sich feststellen, dass die technische Analyse nicht nur ein günstiges Chance-Risiko-Verhältnis ausweist, sondern auch unter Timing-Gesichtspunkten ein Auf- bzw. Ausbau bestehender Positionen attraktiv erscheint. Auf Wochen-Schlusskursbasis sollte ein Stopp-Kurs bei 595 Dollar gewählt werden. Der Autor ist technischer Analyst in Frankfurt.

TOKYO (AFX) - The Tokyo Stock Exchange is considering listing exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to the prices of gold, silver and other precious metals using know-how it will obtain from the New York Stock Exchange, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported.

The NYSE will provide the TSE with expertise on how to manage the funds as part of the broad business partnership the two bourses concluded last week, it said.

Currently, the Tokyo exchange offers 11 ETFs, all of which are linked to a stock price index. This will be the first time for the TSE to list financial products linked to precious metals prices.

The new funds may be listed as early as this summer, with the trading commission to be set lower than for other types of investment trusts, the report said.

In China ist die Nachfrage laut aktuellen Untersuchungen des World Gold Council von 241,4 Tonnen im Jahr 2005 auf genau 240 Tonnen im Jahr 2006 gefallen. Stellt man das Angebot den derzeitigen Produktionswerten in Höhe von 240,07 Tonnen gegenüber zeigt sich, dass sowohl Angebot als auch Nachfrage im Reich der Mitte ausgeglichen sind. Allerdings bin ich sehr gespannt wie sich der Verbrauch in diesem und nächstem Jahr entwickeln wird, wenn die Münzprägeanstalten langsam damit beginnen einen Vorrat für die bevorstehende Olympiade herzustellen. Auf einem vor wenigen Wochen stattgefundenen Sportfestival in Doha war die Nachfrage nach Gedenkmünzen derart groß, dass es zu Engpässen in der Versorgung kam. Die Olympiade im Jahr 2008 ist um ein vielfaches größer und hat eventuell das Potential eine echte Story im Goldsektor zu werden.

Gold Fields gab am Mittwoch bekannt, dass man ein Private Placement mit Aktien im Wert von 1,2 Milliarden Dollar erfolgreich abgeschlossen hat. Das Geld soll dazu verwendet werden das Hedge Book von Westens Areas aufzulösen, welches eine Million Unzen schwer ist. Unter den Goldbullen wird der Schritt als sehr positiv interpretiert, da er impliziert, dass Gold Fields seine Absicherungen zurückfährt weil man an weiter steigende Kurse glaubt. Natürlich wäre dieser Interpretationsansatz möglich und auf den ersten Blick schlüssig. Jedoch teilte mir ein befreundeter Analyst aus den U.S.A. mit, dass es sich bei der Auflösung sehr wahrscheinlich nur um kreative Buchhaltung handelt da man einen hohen Verlust ausweisen kann, den man anderswo wieder geltend macht.

Am Donnerstag wurde die Meldung veröffentlicht, dass der Internationale Währungsfonds Gold im Wert von 6,6 Milliarden US Dollar verkaufen will/muss. Ein Gremium an Beratern dem Alan Greenspan und auch Jean Claude Trichet angehört, haben dem Fonds geraten Gold zu verkaufen und in Anlagen mit einer höheren Rendite zu stecken. Insgesamt sollen etwa 400 Tonnen des gelben Metalls verkauft werden, wobei der IWF über 3.000 Tonnen besitzt. In diesem Zusammenhang macht auch die vor wenigen Tagen erschiene Nachricht, dass die Zentralbanken des Washington Agreements on Gold deutlich weniger verkauft haben Sinn. Eine Studie von Gold Fields Mineral Service hatte erst vor kurzem herausgefunden, dass die Verkäufe der Banken bis zum Jahr 2009 deutlich unter der Vorgabe von 2.500 Tonnen bleiben werden. Dieser Schritt ist sehr wahrscheinlich beschlossen worden, damit der IWF sein Gold am Markt abladen kann. Beeindruckt waren die Händler hiervon allerdings nicht, da der Future am Donnerstag unbeirrt um 0,8 Prozent anstieg und sogar einen hartnäckigen Widerstand bei 661 Dollar überwinden konnte.

Silber gab am Freitag um 2,6 Prozent in den Märznotierungen nach und machte damit seinem Namen "Turbogold" wieder einmal alle Ehre. Auf Wochensicht bleibt ebenfalls eine Runde Null stehen. An großartigen Nachrichten war beim Silber nicht viel zu finden, da sich das Edelmetall vorwiegend am Goldpreis orientiert und weniger an den Basismetallkursen wie Kupfer. Interessant war jedoch die Feststellung, dass die Produktion in Mexiko im November um 13 Prozent gegenüber dem Vorjahr rückläufig war. Bereits im Oktober hatten wir einen Einbruch um 41,5 Prozent gesehen, der überraschend hoch war. Da Mexiko der weltweit größte Silberproduzent ist, sollte diese Entwicklung beobachtet werden. Vielleicht entwickelt sich hieraus eine weitere Story die der Markt spielen kann.



Sebastian Hell ist Futurestrader, Kolumnist und Chefredakteur von EMFIS Rohstoffe.

Der obige Text spiegelt die Meinung des jeweiligen Kolumnisten wider. Die Smarthouse Media GmbH übernimmt für dessen Richtigkeit keine Verantwortung und schließt jegliche Regressansprüche aus.

-sh-

© Aktiencheck.de AG

2006 Gold Demand Record $65.3 Billion

(February 22, '07, 3:32 Edahn Golan)

Record high gold prices during the year drove 2006 demand for gold to a record of $65.3 billion. However, the high price also caused a drop in purchases of gold in terms of weight by central banks. At $44 billion, gold jewelry sales also set a record high. <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />  In 2006 jewelry demand rose 14% in value, but fell 16% in weight Despite a fall in production and reduced supply, industrial demand was the highest ever at 458 tons, according to figures released by the World Gold Council. Supply fell 13 percent by weight.   Jewelry demand rose 14 percent in dollar terms in 2006 as a whole, but fell 16 percent in weight due to a volatile gold price in the first half of the year. Demand for investment gold increased 7 percent over 2005 to 637 tons and 45 percent in value.   The WGC reported that 2007 has begun with brisk demand in most jewelry markets in January, while investor interest has also remained positive. Market research findings show that sentiment towards gold jewelry in key markets remains strong. Prospects for both jewelry and investment demand in the first half of the year are good, WDC predicts, although any return of excessive price volatility could hinder jewelry purchases.

Big spenders go for gold in new year rush

Last Updated(Beijing Time):2007-02-24 11:06

The gold rush is reaching fever pitch in major cities across the country during Spring Festival. In Guangzhou, capital of South China's Guangdong Province, retail sales of gold products had reached 7.82 tons since February 10, Xinhua News Agency reported on Friday. That amount of gold could cover 100 square meters in standard gold bars, it said. Calculated at a price of 223 yuan ($29) per gram, customers in Guangzhou had spent a record high of 1.74 billion yuan ($224 million) on gold products in two weeks. In Beijing, a special gold ornament named "lucky balls" has attracted much attention in recent days. Local media reported that the biggest gold store in the capital, Beijing Caishikou Department Store, every day sells thousands of such one-gram small balls, which could either be worn on the wrist or around the neck. Chen Sufen, a customer who had just bought two gold pig-shaped pendants as gifts for friends, told Xinhua that she believed gold could bring people good luck, and also be a good investment. A symbol of wealth and good fortune, gold traditionally has a special place in the hearts of Chinese people. Other than tradition, a combination of other factors, including the depreciation of the US dollar, and the surge in prices of a wide range of commodities, has also fuelled the latest gold rush. While average punters have been hit by a gold rush fever, others are keeping it cool. Experts in Guangzhou have reminded people who want to invest in gold to wait for the post-holiday sales.

International Forecaster February 2007 (#3) - Gold, Silver, Economy + More

By: Bob Chapman, The International Forecaster

-- Posted Sunday, 25 February 2007 | Digg This Article The following are some snippets from the most recent issue of the International Forecaster.  For the full 28 page issue, please see subscription information below. <?XML:NAMESPACE PREFIX = O />        SATURDAY, February 24, 2007 THE INTERNATIONAL FORECASTER    FEBRUARY 2007 (#3) Vol. 11 No. 2-3 P. O. Box 510518, Punta Gorda, FL 33951-0518 An international financial, economic, political and social commentary. Published and Edited by: Bob Chapman E-mail Address International_forecaster@yahoo.com CHECK OUT OUR WEBSITE www.theinternationalforecaster.com   SUBSCRIPTION and RENEWAL INFORMATION: 1-YEAR $129.95 U.S. Funds.    Make check payable to ROBERT CHAPMAN (NOT International Forecaster), and mail to P.O. Box 510518, Punta Gorda, FL 33951-0518. Please include name, address, telephone number and e-mail address. We accept Visa and MasterCard charges.  Provide us with your card number and expiration date.  We will charge your card US$129.95 for a one-year subscription. Foreigners please use foreign U.S. dollar denominated checks or Money Orders. Note:  We publish twice a month by surface mail or twice a week by E-mail. international_forecaster@yahoo.com   RADIO APPEARANCES:          To check out all of our radio appearances click on this link below: http://www.theinternationalforecaster.com/radio.php   US MARKETS   The average American, the rank and file, told USA Today/Gallup that 63% of them believed that free trade mostly hurts US workers. Some on the Hill are calling for wage insurance, which provides income as displaced workers transition toward new careers. Why should our government, the American taxpayer, subsidize work transition from a job making $31.50 an hour to $10-$12 an hour, while international elitists walk away with all the profits and benefits. Rescinding China’s Permanent Normal Trade Relations status is a good idea from a currency manipulation standpoint, but let’s not go and do half the job, let’s cut status for all the unfair traders. Let’s cut to the chase, let’s have tariffs legislation on all foreign exporters.   Reps. Duncan Hunter (R-CA), who is running for president and Tim Ryan (D-OH), have presented the Fair Currency Act of 2007, classifies China as a currency manipulator in violation of US trade law, and they are right, but let’s go after all the violators and that is just about everyone else.   All this is going on and George and the neocons are trying to build support for so-called “fast track” authority to negotiate new agreements to expand trade. This in spite of the fact that free trade is destroying our country.   Alan Tonelson of the US Business Industry Council says, “We need to declare a moratorium on new trade agreements until we figure out how to do this right.” It seems they are losing too many members. Some economists have the gall to tell us the deficit is not a sign of economic decline. If it isn’t what is it? An adjustment to economic and financial oblivion. The deficit is unsustainable. What happens if other central banks stopped funding our profligacy? We saw investors fleeing the scene last month. If that persists for three months then it will all be up to the foreign central banks to carry the whole load. If the US changes trade policy we can expect a much lower dollar. The deficit is just one of the symptoms of an unfair free trade policy that allows transnational companies economic incentives and political clout to find ever cheaper ways of producing goods overseas. It is pretty simple - the scheme allows inexpensive imports to flow into our country replacing US-made products and workers. The result has been the decent of the American worker and the American family, and the destruction of our culture. The transnational conglomerates have allowed our people to become semi-slave labor. If it weren’t for credit cards, home equity loans, and mortgage cash outs consumer purchases would be dead in the water. Free trade is and was meant to destabilize our economy.   That beauty called NAFTA has cost us one million jobs and has put 20 to 30 million illegal aliens into our country, because it drove uneducated formers off the land and offered work for the Mexicans thrown out of jobs in Mexico into the US making more money than they ever dreamed of. Who could blame them for wanting work and higher wages? The trade deficit from 1993 to 2004 soared by $107.3 billion, a nearly 7-fold increase. NAFTA is bad for America, Mexico and Canada and the WTO is worse – much worse. They want to overrule our Constitution, courts and remove our sovereignty. International corporations have been allowed to run rampant. This is why a first step would be to repeal the president’s fast track authority. This allows the president to negotiate trade agreements without congressional commentary. The president submits the proposed deal for an up-or-down congressional vote, barring lawmakers from amending the agreement.   The trade deficit will be paid by our children and grandchildren and a continuation of free trade and globalization will destroy us.   Now we have health insurance companies using a bold data-running trick. You’ll receive a phone call from someone who will claim to be working with or for your health insurance company. They will have 20 minutes of questions for you to answer, which will pry deeply into your personal life. If you get such a call refuse to answer and do not allow them to intimidate you. This is part of the new world order attempt to find out everything they can about you. You can expect the first question to what is your height & weight. If you are overweight you are more likely to have physical problems.   Two large private-equity takeover schemes speculating on the price of housing, one in New York and the other in Dresden, Germany, are threatening to blow up, one on the direction of junk bonds, and the other in an IPO on the NYSE and Frankfurt stock markets. Their failure could start a default chain in the huge global bubble of takeover debt. The IPO Fortress is raising $650 million. The offering is based on the hedge fund’s large-scale holdings of apartments in German cities, which it bought up from municipalities and real estate firms. Some 600,000 apartments have been privatized, while still 3.3 million that are the residences of 10 million Germans remain owned by governments. Fortress is run by ex-bankers from Goldman Sachs and Lehman Bros., and claims to have $30 billion in assets. A good part of this inventory is in the impoverished city of Dresden, which sold all its 48,000 apartments for $1.2 billion. 45,000 tenants protested the sale. Real estate conditions in Dresden are bleak. The city has 15% unemployment and 40,000 vacant housing units. Many residents are paying no rent, because they have no significant income. Fortress cannot turn the apartments into condos under the buyout contract.   The underwriting is for a market value that is 17.4 times gross annual rent. This is unheard of. Normally it would be 8 to 9 times and occasionally up to 12. The IPO has a plan to have new investors pay debt charges of the previous investors’ capital, which is a Ponzi-type scheme.   Overall hedge funds have created $3 to $14 of bank debt for every dollar they invested. These funds were supposed to be for wealthy investors, but now pension funds and individual investors are buying in.   In another large deal 12,000 apartments of Peter Cooper Village and Stuyvesant Town, the only remaining middle-class housing left in Manhattan’s hyper-priced real estate market, were bought up in October by Tischman Speyer Realty and Black Rock Partners, which has $1 trillion in speculative capital. The apartments were of excellent quality and had controlled rents. MetLife sold them without consulting NYC government, which knew exactly what was going on. We wonder if the city got paid for their part? They helped finance the project 60 years ago.   By January, three months after purchase, units in 2,000 of the 12,000 apartments had their rents raised by 1/3rd, because there was so much leverage that increases in rents were necessary to pay debt. The deal violated a 1992 NY State law that prohibited owners from removing apartments from under rent control without municipal approval. If the courts uphold the law, these units purchased by Tischman, who obviously planned these rent increases in violation of the law, then the deal will have to be undone and Tishman could go into default.   When these hedge funds get hit it is the banks that suffer as well, because they are the lenders of the funds so amply supplied by the Fed. There are now moves being made by the Fed and its equal member in Germany to see which banks have the heaviest exposure. We could have serious problems on the horizon if either of these funds goes under. It could threaten the world financial system. ... GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM, PALADIUM AND DIAMONDS   Monday US markets were closed. The <?XML:NAMESPACE PREFIX = ST1 />London second fixing was up closing at $670.50 and the access market had gold at $672.40 and silver up $0.03.   Some in the gold camp believe that the next leg of the gold price will likely say more about the under-pricing of risk than the traditional drivers of gold such as inflation, deflation or geopolitical events. Gold is rising against economically sensitive commodities that signify that a general reappraisal of risk is underway.   While this transpires there has been no increase in premiums on market risk insurance. They do not see what we see. In addition, consumers have no savings and are in debt up to their eyeballs, which means there can be no consumer recovery. If anything we see the opposite. Derivatives are reaching $400 trillion. The worldwide GDP is $43 trillion and the US GDP is $12 trillion by way of comparison. Risk, endless risk, is the name of today’s game and sooner or later their leverage will become a colossal problem.   On Tuesday, we saw a combination of derivatives selling in London and physical selling in New York as gold was slammed by the suppression cartel. They waited for a decrease in physical demand brought about by the Chinese/Taiwanese holidays, which will negatively impact gold all week. Our hope is that the physical demand hiatus does not enable the cartel to cause gold to break below $650. We don’t believe it will, but it is possible. An important question is why did the physical gold bulls not follow up and trap the shorts. We will soon find out. With that, on Tuesday gold closed off $11.00 at $657.50 and silver fell $0.14 to $13.81. April gold was off $11.80 to $661.00, silver fell $0.16 to $13.83 and copper fell $0.06 to $2.60. This was another orchestrated takedown by the cartel. You could see it coming with the suppression of the gold and silver shares this past week. We will win, but as you can see the market is a complete fraud. There is continual insider trading but the SEC looks the other way. Open Comex interest rose 7,770 contracts to 399,591, which means there has to be massive shorting, major use of derivative puts and major bullion selling. Silver had a strong day even though it fell on the day. Silver open interest rose 329 contracts to 126,485.   Last week a combination of Comex and CBOT trading speculators added 2.4 million ounces to complete a net long position of 19.69 million ounces. That is the highest since 12/05. Over the past five weeks specs have added more than 10 million ounces. On Friday, the big Tocom gold shorts increased their shorts by 862 to 117,104. In the meantime Goldman covered 1,030 contracts taking net shorts to 31,522. On Monday, Goldman finally opened up, increasing their shorts by 2,821 to 34,343 contracts. That means the cartel is throwing in everything but the kitchen sink. In silver, the big shorts reduced their position by 21 contracts to 4,148. The XAU fell 2.51 to 139.33 and the HUI fell 8.18 to 338.91.   Kitco silver one-month lease rate was zero. Barclay’s offered 130 million ounces at market. That is called market manipulation.   This past week the ECB reported two banks sold 5.8 tons versus 4.51 tons the prior week. That is the highest sale this year. They need to sell 9.6 tons weekly to reach quota.    It is expected that India may import 880 tons of gold in 2007 or about 1/3rd of world production.   Tuesday’s Dow had been off 60 points, but the cartel again brought it back to close up 19 to 12,787, S&P rose 37 Dow points and Nasdaq rose 102 Dow points. Oil fell $1.32 to $58.07, gas rose $0.04 to $1.65 and natural gas rose $0.08 to $7.59. The euro slipped .0011 to $1.3138, the pound rose .0047 to $1.9548, the Canadian dollar fell .48 to 85.40 and the dollar index rose .02 to 84.07. The 2-year Treasury yield fell to 4.82% and the 10’s were 4.68%.   On Wednesday, three hours before the US opening gold was up $0.80, silver was down $0.09 and copper had fallen to $2.58, off $0.02. The Bank of Japan had increased interest rates ¼% to ½%, which means the yen carry trade will be phased out as the yen increases in value versus other currencies. That is probably part of the reason commodities have been soft over the past two weeks. It is believed some of those borrowed funds were used to speculate in commodities and perhaps in gold and silver. It is more likely that those speculative funds were used in stock and bond markets worldwide. After Comex and CBOT opened gold started to move higher as the CPI rose 0.2% in January and core rose 0.3%. That sent gold and silver higher and 1-1/2 hours into the session gold was up $4.00, silver $0.06 and copper $0.02.   Three and one half hours into the Wednesday session gold was up $10.20, silver up $0.15 and copper up $0.03.   Wednesday gold and silver finished with a flourish. Gold rose $22.00 to $679.50 and silver leaped $0.45 to $14.26. The April gold contract closed at $684.00, up $23.00, silver rose $0.44 to $14.27 and copper was up $0.06 to $2.66. This was one of the biggest days for gold and silver for many years. The shorts and derivatives couldn’t overwhelm the market any further after Tuesday. They had sold as much as they could and today the physical buyers came in and again they were overwhelmed. The shorts and puts players of all types are buried and it is going to get much worse. As you can see there is going to be billions of dollars made in these two markets. We just saw a lesson in why desperate people do desperate things. We told you a month ago something big was in the wind, and we will soon be proven right. In addition, as we have said over and over, the central banks either do not have the gold left to stop gold’s upward momentum, or they are afraid to sell any more. If their efforts to implement a world currency doesn’t work they could spend the rest of their lives in jail or on a gallows.   We are looking at a breakaway and its technically and fundamentally sound. No gaps to fill. It is up, up and away. Needless to say, it was a good day for shares, the XAU rose 5.18 to 144.91 and the HUI jumped 15.47 to 354.57. Technically the HUI has broken out on the upside and the shares are way behind bullion. They are very under priced.   On Tocom on Tuesday the big gold shorts, who are late to the party on the short side, added 1.143 contracts to total 125,128. Goldman increased their shorts by 2,821 contracts to 33,927. The same gang increased their net silver shorts by 95 to 4,874.   The Dow ended Wednesday down 48 to 12,738; S&P fell 20 Dow points and Nasdaq 33 Dow points. Oil rose $1.22 to $60.07 after spending much of the morning off $0.50. Gasoline rose $0.06 to $1.70 and natural gas rose $0.06 to $7.65. The euro fell .0004 to $1.3138, the pound fell .0011 to $1.9541; the Canadian dollar rose .78 to 86.18. The 2-year Treasury bill’s yield was up 4.84% and the 10’s were 4.6%, which is a very large inversion.   Thursday started with a little profit taking, gold was off $1.60, silver $0.01 and copper was up $0.02. After the first hour of Comex trading, gold was off $1.80, silver was off $0.01 and copper was up $0.09. After 1-1/2 hours gold was off $4.50, silver $0.09 and copper was up $0.09. We did not see much short covering either yesterday or today as open interest rose 9,250 contracts to 405,365. That means the gold suppression cartel and their minions are still heavily short. Let’s hope the physical buyers stick it to them. There are big physical buyers in the market. Gold refused to back off today, which it should have. We are facing something very powerful to the upside. Let’s hope the shorts do not panic until we pass $730. We then have an immediate shot at $850. Let it be known that yesterday and today were two of the most important days in years for both gold and silver. Silver’s open interest rose as well rising 2,274 contracts to 129,306. The base metals, softs and beans had a powerful day along with the energy complex. They kept on trying to push oil and gasoline down and just couldn’t do it. Gold closed down $0.30 to $679.20 and silver fell $0.04 to $14.22. The April gold contract closed at $683.00, off $1.00, silver fell $0.02 to $14.25 and copper had a big day up $0.11 to $2.78. There are many major buyers in the market. Professionals, governments and we are told the Chinese via intermediataries. China and Taiwan open again on Monday after holidays and that should give the gold market some additional zip. This will supply additional pressure on the paper short and the derivative buyers. It will be like the bulls running through the streets of Pamplona in Spain with the cartel running in front of this trying to save themselves and their fortunes. Zbig and Henry the K will be leading the pack. The big Tocom shorts on Wednesday increased their net shorts by 13,410, which is enormous ending at 138,538. Goldman’s part of that was 2,149 to 36,076. They all are obviously on the cartel payroll. We won’t learn a lot from tomorrow’s COT figures, except how short the commercials are. It is next week’s numbers that will tell the tale. The XAU went up .22 to 145.13 and the HUI gained 1.77 to 356.34.   Thursday the Dow fell 52 to 12,686, S&P fell 12 Dow points and Nasdaq was plus 41 Dow points. Oil was up $0.88 at $60.95, gas was $1.76 up $0.05 and natural gas was up $0.08 at $7.73. The euro fell .0013 to $1.3122, the pound rose .0031 to $1.9563 and the Canadian dollar fell .05 to 86.14. The 2-year Treasury bill yield rose to 4.86% and the 10’s were 4.73%.   In Barrick’s latest statement cash costs were $287 per ounce, but cash flow was reduced $327 million or $0.37 a share, as a result of a gold hedge reduction of 1 million ounces in the fourth quarter. They also declared hedge losses of $564 million in the first quarter and $65 million in the second quarter.   We find it of interest that Brink’s Global services announced that they would no longer vault gold for Internet gold services. They will continue to vault for banks and commodity exchanges. They can use money laundering as an excuse but it won’t wash. Our government wants e-gold services out of business. They want the dumb bunnies to buy the ETF’s so the gold will be easily available for confiscation. In addition the stock, coin buyers and e-gold buyers will stupidly by e-gold. That makes the coin and share market soft and leaves investors as pigeons for confiscation.   Any of you subscribers who have the gold and silver ETF’s had best take some notice of the massively under priced numismatic coins, gold producers and exploration stocks. In the ETF’s you are looking at one-to-one leverage as you are in bullion. We are only $170 away from $850 gold and the MS64 St. Gaudens $20 gold piece is selling at a 1/5th of what it was in 1980. There are giant upsides here.   Overnight Friday gold was off $5.20. Three hours prior to the NY opening it was off $1.90, silver was up $0.04 and copper was up $0.04. What is happening here is that the commercials are heavily short and the physical longs are so relentless that they cannot drive prices down to cover. The huge short positions make both metals wildly bullish. In the pits it is - every man for himself - and we can assure you once $730 breaks panic will ensue. You can also rest assured that the buyers are watching the gold lease rates very closely and if they drop they will wait for the correction and buy more. Let’s hope the commercials do not realize how buried they are and that they add more shorts.   Silver led the way all day having been up $0.45 at one point, but persistent selling moderated its gain. Again there is massive physical accumulation in both gold and silver. Gold finished strong at the end of the day, up $3.70 to $682.90 after having been down as much as $6.00 in Tokyo hours before. Silver finished up $0.27 to $14.49. The April gold contract finished at $686.70 and $3.70, silver jumped $0.35 to $14.60. Copper had another splendid day, up $0.08 to $2.85. The gold open interest rose 611 contracts to 405,976. Silver contracts fell 3,695 to 125,611.Sources say the Saudis were very active in silver and gold in London. We again got lots of help with copper up 9.2%; zinc up 3.4%; lead up 3.2%; aluminum up 1.45% and nickel up 3.43%. Corn broke out technically to the upside. On Thursday the big Tocom shorts reduced their net short position by 2,363 contracts to 136,175. Goldman covered 413 to 35,663. The big silver shorts reduced their net shorts by 342 contracts to 4,447. In all it was the best week in gold and silver in many years. ... SUBSCRIPTION and RENEWAL INFORMATION: 1-YEAR $129.95 U.S. Funds.    Make check payable to ROBERT CHAPMAN (NOT International Forecaster), and mail to P.O. Box 510518, Punta Gorda, FL 33951-0518. Please include name, address, telephone number and e-mail address. We accept Visa and MasterCard charges.  Provide us with your card number and expiration date.  We will charge your card US$129.95 for a one-year subscription. Foreigners please use foreign U.S. dollar denominated checks or Money Orders. Note:  We publish twice a month by surface mail or twice a week by E-mail. international_forecaster@yahoo.com -- Posted Sunday, 25 February 2007