Platts News | US ethanol exports surge in 2014 to highest since 2011: US Census ~ Exports to Brazil surged in 2014 amid ongoing concerns with drought that hit the Center-South region -- the largest consuming and producer region
US ethanol exports surge in 2014 to highest since 2011: US Census
Feb. 6, 2015 | Platts News
US ethanol exports in December reached 285.6 million liters (75.4 million gallons), down from the November record for 2014 of 344 million liters but still 16% higher than in December 2013.
This brought the total level of ethanol exported from the US in 2014 to 3.16 billion liters, up 54% from the previous year and the highest since 2011 when 4.51 billion liters was exported, according to US Census Bureau data released late Thursday.
The data includes all ethanol types except for beverage use.
Soaring production rates amid a record corn crop and swelling stockpiles pushed US ethanol to record lows in 2014, allowing more product to be sent abroad.
Traders expect 2015 to be a similar year in terms of export volumes out of the US. Kingsman, the agricultural analysis unit of Platts, forecasts an increase of 2% in US fuel ethanol exports in 2015 to 3.215 billion liters.
The majority of US ethanol exports in 2014 -- 1.715 billion liters -- was classified as denatured ethanol for fuel use, with most, 1.17 billion liters, sent to Canada. The volume is slightly lower than the 2013 total of 122 billion liters.
The second main destination for US denatured ethanol exports in 2014 was the United Arab Emirates, with 255.5 million liters, surging sharply from the 91 million liters of denatured ethanol sent to the UAE in 2013.
With lower energy prices worldwide there could be a dent to the volume of product sent in 2015 to discretionary blending markets such as the Middle East. Nonetheless, recent shipping reports showed active inquiries for cargoes from 30 to 40 million liters for late January loading.
As for denatured fuel ethanol exports, it totaled 1.355 billion liters, with Brazil as the main receiver at 424.45 million liters. The volume is more than twice as high as the 178 million liters to Brazil in 2013.
Exports to Brazil surged in 2014 amid ongoing concerns with drought that hit the Center-South region -- the largest consuming and producer region -- during most of the year that punished the sugarcane crop and the impacts to ethanol output. Ethanol prices were supported throughout most of 2014 as the industry anticipated a tight domestic ethanol balance.
More exports to Brazil are expected for Q1 and Q2 as CS Brazil is in its intercrop season.
Kingsman estimates some 40 million liters will enter the CS region in January and another 50 million liters between February and March. As for the volumes entering the NNE region, the market expects a continuous flow throughout the year at an average of about 20-30 million liters a month.
Two vessels -- the Bow Lind and the Elisabeth Schulte -- carrying an estimated total of 45 million liters left the US Gulf Coast in mid-late January and are now heading towards Brazil, according to information from Platts c-Flow vessel tracking software.
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