According to multiple accounts and models (for example here, here, here, and here), the expected growth in gas/LNG production in the next few years would not be immediately met with a demand strong enough to significantly raise the price. In addition, in the next year or so, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to weaken global demand for natural gas beyond what has been generally expected. The market should tighten and prices may go up, however, after 2025. In fact, natural gas seems to be the only fossil fuel that would experience significant growth over the next two decades. This growth is expected to come mainly from the developing world, most predominantly from China but also India and other countries in Southeast Asia. We could also see some growth in places such as Eastern Europe where lots of natural gas infrastructure has been recently completed, under construction or planned and where we expect an increase in coal-to-gas switching based on the European Union’s goal to decarbonize.
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