Vorab moechte ich erwaehnen, das ich bis 2005/2007 ein Bulle bin !
Aber nur bei Edelmetallen wie z.B. Gold, Silber, Palladium etc
Nun zu den Fakten und die sind basieren auf Standard & Poor.
Wer es nachlesen moechte, kann dies auf deren Webseite tun.
THE REAL P/E RATIO
The real P/E for the S&P 500 is based on "as reported" or GAAP earnings
(calculated using Generally Accepted Accounting Principals), and it is the
historical standard for reporting earnings. The normal range for the GAAP P/E
ratio is between 10 (undervalued) to 20 (overvalued). The investment sales
industry would like us to think that "pro forma" or "operating earnings" is
the same as GAAP, but operating earnings are not based on real accounting --
all revenue is included, but selective expenses are ignored. Standard & Poors
has introduced a third version called "core" earnings, which is more critical
and analytical than the other two, and is designed to reveal the true
condition of the company. We can only use GAAP earnings for historical
comparisons, because there is no historical record for the other two. Core
earnings should be used for individual company value analysis. Pro forma
earnings should be ignored.
The following earnings and P/Es are based on S&P 500 12-month trailing
earnings as of Q3 2003 (Source: Standard & Poors). The P/E is calculated by
dividing the S&P 500 closing price by the EPS:
"As Reported" (GAAP) EPS is $38.62; P/E is 29.
"Core" EPS is $38.55; P/E is 29.
"Pro Forma" EPS is $51.63; P/E is 21.
Based upon the latest GAAP earnings the following would be the approximate S&P
500 values at the cardinal points of the normal historical value range. They
are calculated simply by multiplying the GAAP EPS by 10, 15, and 20:
Undervalued (P/E = 10): 386
Fair Value (P/E = 15): 579
Overvalued (P/E = 20): 772
EARNINGS PROJECTION: According to the Standard & Poors spreadsheet dated
December 31, S&P 500 twelve-month trailing earnings through 2003 Q4 (based on
Q4 estimates) are $45.12 with a P/E of 25.
The charts below offer perspective regarding prices and P/Es relative to
normal historical ranges.
Chart 1 zeigt uns einen S&P500 mit knapp ueber 1100 Punkte an
(schwarze Linie), wobei das fair value bei ca 600-650 Punkten
(blaue Linie) liegt. Diese Zonen sind m.E. die naechsten Anlaufstationen.
Die Frage ist WANN.
Asien und Edelmetalle sind weiterhin meine Anlagefavoriten und am
amerikanischen als auch an den europaeischen Maerkten sollte man ein sehr
wachsames Auge haben. Eine buy und hold Strategie kann sehr
schmerzhaft fuers Depot werden.
Dazu faellt mir der Satz des legendaeren Traders Jesse Livermore ein.....
“The biggest stock market gains are made by the public on paper…and that’s where they stay.”
Go figure............ ;-)
Stox Dude
Aber nur bei Edelmetallen wie z.B. Gold, Silber, Palladium etc
Nun zu den Fakten und die sind basieren auf Standard & Poor.
Wer es nachlesen moechte, kann dies auf deren Webseite tun.
THE REAL P/E RATIO
The real P/E for the S&P 500 is based on "as reported" or GAAP earnings
(calculated using Generally Accepted Accounting Principals), and it is the
historical standard for reporting earnings. The normal range for the GAAP P/E
ratio is between 10 (undervalued) to 20 (overvalued). The investment sales
industry would like us to think that "pro forma" or "operating earnings" is
the same as GAAP, but operating earnings are not based on real accounting --
all revenue is included, but selective expenses are ignored. Standard & Poors
has introduced a third version called "core" earnings, which is more critical
and analytical than the other two, and is designed to reveal the true
condition of the company. We can only use GAAP earnings for historical
comparisons, because there is no historical record for the other two. Core
earnings should be used for individual company value analysis. Pro forma
earnings should be ignored.
The following earnings and P/Es are based on S&P 500 12-month trailing
earnings as of Q3 2003 (Source: Standard & Poors). The P/E is calculated by
dividing the S&P 500 closing price by the EPS:
"As Reported" (GAAP) EPS is $38.62; P/E is 29.
"Core" EPS is $38.55; P/E is 29.
"Pro Forma" EPS is $51.63; P/E is 21.
Based upon the latest GAAP earnings the following would be the approximate S&P
500 values at the cardinal points of the normal historical value range. They
are calculated simply by multiplying the GAAP EPS by 10, 15, and 20:
Undervalued (P/E = 10): 386
Fair Value (P/E = 15): 579
Overvalued (P/E = 20): 772
EARNINGS PROJECTION: According to the Standard & Poors spreadsheet dated
December 31, S&P 500 twelve-month trailing earnings through 2003 Q4 (based on
Q4 estimates) are $45.12 with a P/E of 25.
The charts below offer perspective regarding prices and P/Es relative to
normal historical ranges.
Chart 1 zeigt uns einen S&P500 mit knapp ueber 1100 Punkte an
(schwarze Linie), wobei das fair value bei ca 600-650 Punkten
(blaue Linie) liegt. Diese Zonen sind m.E. die naechsten Anlaufstationen.
Die Frage ist WANN.
Asien und Edelmetalle sind weiterhin meine Anlagefavoriten und am
amerikanischen als auch an den europaeischen Maerkten sollte man ein sehr
wachsames Auge haben. Eine buy und hold Strategie kann sehr
schmerzhaft fuers Depot werden.
Dazu faellt mir der Satz des legendaeren Traders Jesse Livermore ein.....
“The biggest stock market gains are made by the public on paper…and that’s where they stay.”
Go figure............ ;-)
Stox Dude
