Der USA Bären-Thread

béobachtet, ist, dass man sich dadurch nicht verleiten lässt, "überaktiv" zu handeln, sondern die Gewinn bringenden langfristigen Investments laufen lässt.

Dabei "hilft" ein kleines Derivatedepot, da kann man überaktiv kleines Geld verbrennen, während einen gleichzeitig das große Geld in den langfristigen Investments reich macht. ;-)

Man kann sich natürlich auch einfach an den Strand legen und das kleine Geld mit Longdrinks versaufen - doch wer will das schon? ;-)))

"Man kann sich natürlich auch einfach an den Strand legen und das kleine Geld mit Longdrinks versaufen - doch wer will das schon? ;-))) "

Ein überaus interessanter Einspruch. Longdrinks sind schmecken gut bekommen bei langfristig täglichem Konsum der Gesundheit nicht. Auch die langeweile kommt dann irgendwann durch.

Aber als vorrübergehende Erscheinung hat der Strand mit den Longdrinks durchaus seine Verlockungen.

Permanent

The survey's broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from a reading of -0.7 in September to 1.0 in October. (The Street was looking for 1.4.) The index had been negative for two consecutive months. Indices for new orders and shipments continued to indicate weakness this month: The new orders index increased 3 points but remained negative for the fourth consecutive month. The shipments index increased 9 points, moving the index above zero for the first time in three months. Firms continue to report overall declines in inventories and unfilled orders and shorter delivery times.

www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/.../2010/bos1010.cfm

darf man auch in gepflegter Umgebung frönen, natürlich nicht zu oft und immer nur mit kleiner Kasse:

 

The American dream appears increasingly elusive to the average citizen, with the CNBC All-America Economic Survey finding continued high levels of pessimism in the nation’s outlook for incomes, home values and the future of the economy.

After trillions of dollars were put to work for monetary and fiscal stimulus, just 8 percent of the nation views the economy as excellent or good and 92 percent see it as fair or poor, little changed from a year ago.

But just 37 percent of the public believes the economy will improve in the next year, down five points from a year ago. Taken together, the combined percentage of Americans who are pessimistic about the economy now and for the next year is at the second highest for the three-year life of the CNBC survey.

 

 

One doesn’t have to look far for the reasons for the prevailing pessimism. Just one in four Americans believe their wages will increase in the next year. Even fewer, one in five, believe their home price will rise.

Both figures are record lows for the survey. In March 2007, about half the public expected gains for both their home values and their wages.

 

 

The politics of pessimism weigh heavily on President Obama and the Democrats. The president’s approval rating on the economy remains stuck at 45 percent, with those who are pessimistic on the economy giving the president approval ratings in the low double digits.

Congressional Democrats can boast of approval from only 35 percent of the public, just a bit than higher than congressional Republicans, with a 31 percent rating.

 

But responses to a separate series of questions about who is to blame for the nation’s economic problems finds Congressional republicans low on the list, a good sign pollsters say for the GOP in the upcoming election.

Former President Bush is faulted by the 31 percent of the public for the current recession, far ahead of President Obama at 13 percent. Congressional Republicans are blamed by just 7 percent of the public for the recession.

 

The two presidents are closer on other issues. For example, 22 percent of the public blames Bush for the current level of unemployment, compared with 20 percent for President Obama.

While 39 percnt blame Bush and congressional Republicans for the deficit, 40 percent blame Obama and the congressional Democrats.

One of the most dramatic findings in the survey is a sharp turn in views on business regulation, an issue that finds President Obama at odds with a majority of the public. Nearly half of Americans now say that business is overregulated—up from 28 percent in other surveys conducted in 2009, and even higher than surveys that asked the question in the mid-1980s.

 

On many other economic issues, the CNBC survey finds Americans are deeply divided, with a slight edge that would appear to favor the GOP.

Just under half of the public wants to continue the tax cuts for the wealthy. 46 percent of the public says they should be ended.

 

Among the leading reasons to maintain the tax cuts, the survey finds the public is concerned about raising taxes in the current economic environment and the effects on small business.

Among those would want the tax cuts to end, the leading reason, cited by 26 percent, is that the money could be used for such programs as social security and education.

In second place, with 17 percent, is the response that “the wealthy do not pay their fair share in taxes.”

The Tea Party also sharply divides the public, but into three distinct camps: 31 percent say they agree with the party’s economic positions and 28 percent say they disagree.

 

Emotions are charged on both sides, with equal percentages saying they strongly agree and strongly disagree. But there’s a larger, third group: 41 percent of the public say they don’t have an opinion on the Tea Party or they are just not sure.

Finally, a majority of Americans do not believe this is a good time to invest in the stock market, about the same percentage as during the height of the financial crisis in 2008. Just 37 percent of the public say it’s a good time to invest.

The survey questioned 801 people and was conducted October 10-13. Complete results here.

market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=169848

"The claims of ´economic recovery´ are nonsense - or, if you prefer, intentional lies."

NORTH AMERICA LOSING SOME SERIOUS MOMENTUM

The U.S. economy may in fact be contracting again. The monthly data from Macroeconomic Advisers showed that real GDP contracted 0.6% in August. While this did follow a red-hot +1.25% gain in July, this does mark the third decline in real activity in the past four months. And, as an exclamation mark to the overall deflationary backdrop we are in, nominal GDP also fell 0.4% in August and has contracted now in three of the past four months. Maybe the bond market does not need the Fed’s help after all — the super-soft economic environment is all the Treasury market really needs to sustain the downward trend in yields.

...Is there anything in these numbers and comments that would otherwise support this crazy notion that there is a bubble in bonds? Could it be that the fixed-income market is telling us the same thing about the economic outlook that the Bank of Canada is — maybe, just maybe, it is the equity market, liquidity-craved as it is, is the odd man out?

 

INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULL-BEAR SPREAD AT FIVE-MONTH HIGH

The U.S. Investors Intelligence Sentiment Poll just came out for this past week. The bull camp dipped a tad, to 45.1% from 47.2%, but the bear camp continues to dwindle to 22% from 24.7%. [Am Tief Anfang Sept. war die Bullenquote bei 22 % - A.L.]

The bull/bear spread widened further, to 23.1 versus 22.5 in the previous week. The spread has not been this wide since the week of May 4th. This is not a forecast as much as an observation but the last time the spread was this wide the Dow was down 9% in the next 4-5 weeks.

Not only have sentiment indicators flagged a high level of investor complacency but also the equity market looks highly overbought right now. Looking at the internals, there is much less buoyancy than there is on the surface. As an example, back in April there were at least 600 stocks on the Big Board making new highs versus around 180 right now. Moreover, back at the April highs, we had well over 90% of the S&P 500 universe trading above their 200-day moving average and currently that share is barely above 70%. Keep these metrics in mind when judging the health and breadth of the overall market, and be sure to dust off Bob Farrell’s Rule 7: “Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names."

(aus dem heutigen Breakfast with Dave)

Oct. 21, 2010, 10:34 a.m. EDT
Goldman prop trading team heading to KKR
By Alistair Barr

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- A team of Goldman Sachs proprietary traders led by Bob Howard are being hired by private-equity firm KKR & Co. The team comes from Goldman Sachs Principal Strategies, a unit that traded the investment bank's own money. Goldman is winding down the business in the wake of new regulations limiting banks' ability to trade with their own money, known as proprietary trading. "Over several decades, Principal Strategies has been a successful global investing business with a strong performance record and a culture of disciplined risk management," a Goldman spokesman said Thursday. "We wish Bob and his team every success in their home."

"Unter der Haube" sieht es nicht so toll aus:



Gene Balas, Street.com
Leading Indicators - Some Details
10/21/2010 10:30 AM EDT

While leading indicators grew by 0.26% in the most recent report, much of the gains came from financial indicators. The yield curve contributed 0.26 percentage points and stock prices added 0.12 percentage points. Money supply added 0.18.

For those indicators that measure more economy-related statistics, weekly unemployment claims added 0.21 to the index. Supplier deliveries was the biggest negative, subtracting 0.31, followed by building permits, at -0.15, and consumer expectations of -0.06. Manufacturers' new orders for both consumer and capital goods came in flat, as did the average workweek for production workers.

As such, we may want to take this report with a grain of salt, considering how much came from the yield curve.

Here's some quotes from the Conference Board: Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: says "The LEI remains on a general upward trend, but it is growing at its slowest pace since the middle of 2009. There isn't any indication of a relapse into another downturn through the end of the year."

Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: "More than a year after the recession officially ended, the economy is slow and has no forward momentum. The LEI suggests little change in economic conditions through the holidays or the early months of 2011."

Siehe hierzu auch die Charts der Wettbewerber CTRP und TZOO!

Ich erinnere mich noch gut, dass Einige hier letzten Sommer bei 90 Dollar shorteten oder sogar "short Calls" gingen. Letzteres war - bei längeren Laufzeiten - tödlich.

Aktuell: 165 Dollar, RSI auf über 70.

Ende 2007, als DAX und DOW an ATHs kratzen, stand Amazon noch bei 70 Dollar, weniger als die Hälfte des aktuellen Kurses. Einen ähnlich monströsen Anstieg gab es seitdem z. B. bei McDonald's in # 175 (parabolische Fahnenstange).

Nur solchen Highflyer-Aktien ist es zu verdanken dass der SP-500 mit knapp 1200 wieder auf das Vor-Lehman-Niveau gestiegen ist. Denn der einst so wichtige US-Finanz- und Bankensektor lahmt noch immer.

---

Mein Bauch "sagt" mir, dass die aktuelle Ausgangslage ähnlich ist wie im Oktober 2007, als DOW und DAX ihre letzten Hochs erreichten. D.h. ich rechne mit einem mittel- bis langfristigen Top. Die Wahlen und die nächsten AL-Zahlen Anfang Nov. (AL-Quote könnte auf knapp 10 % steigen) dürften den Ausschlag bzw. "Anstoß nach unten" geben.

Auch fundamental ist die Lage weniger rosig als die Kurse suggerieren: Das zeigt z. B. dieser rückläufige Ölverbrauchs-Chart, der sich mit dem raketenartigen Kursanstieg von Öl (WTI) in den letzten Wochen kaum in Einklang bringen lässt:  

market-ticker.org/akcs-www?get_gallerynr=475  (aus # 183).

.

In einigen Kommentaren auf marketwatch und cnbc konnte ich ja schon den geistigen Dünnschiss der Amis bewundern: "Wie kann der Ölpreis steigen, wenn der Ölverbrauch in den USA stagniert, das ist eine Verschwörung der Wall Street". Tja, der gewöhnliche Ami meint wohl, dass die ganze Welt sich nur um ihn dreht und der Ölpreis national gemacht wird, das ist aber nicht so. Alle Nationen dieser Welt verbrauchen Öl, wobei Südostasien, Lateinamerika und Naher Osten besonders hervorstechen, denn dort steigt der Ölverbrauch, und zwar gewaltig. Die Zahlen kann man im link unten nachlesen; der weltweite Ölverbrauch ist jedenfalls im Höhenflug (2. Quartal 2010 bei 86,26 Mio b/d; 2. Quartal 2009 bei 84,01 Mio b/d) und da interessiert es niemanden, ob der verblödete Joe Sixpack ein paar Barrel mehr oder weniger verbraucht, solange die absoluten Änderungen in den USA nicht so gewaltig sind.

www.eia.gov/emeu/ipsr/t21.xls

ich weiss wirklich nicht was daran so falsch ist....s.Malko zuvor
www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/0,1518,724366,00.html
dieser Artikel ist doch eher etwas sehr süffisant

dass wir zumindest in den nächsten zwei Monaten keine größeren Short-Chancen erleben werden, wahrscheinlich auch noch darüber hinaus, ein "Black Swan-Ereignis" an dieser Stelle mal ausklammernd. Nach den Kongress-Wahlen in den USA wird es in den darauffolgenden Zeiten eher zu politischen Blockaden und Patt-Situationen zwischen den jeweiligen Parteien kommen und das ist recht angenehm für die Wall Street-Goons und ihrem "Business as usual". Axel Weber ist ja aktuell auch definitiv für seine Position abgewatscht worden, so dass die "Masters of the Pumpenschwengel" vorerst weiterhin das Zepter in der Hand halten. Be prepared!

www.spiegel.de/netzwelt/netzpolitik/0,1518,724319,00.html

Auch ich habe widersprochen und damit Arbeitsplätze geschaffen.

Wir sind Deutschland! Eine Initiative zur Schaffung von Arbeitsplätzen bei amerikanischen Konzernen. ;-))

Die Preisschere liegt inzwischen bei einem Faktor von 21,58.

Normal ist ein Faktor von 7.

Die Schere ist damit - getrieben durch Preisblähungen beim Öl bzw. EUR/USD - von 20,5 in der letzten Woche...

http://www.ariva.de/...A_Baeren_Thread_t283343?page=2791#jumppos69800

... noch weiter gestiegen.

---

Es wird böse enden:

mit Defizit   (also nochmal im richtigen Thread)
www.businessinsider.com/...yees-pension-system-deficit-2010-10

I want to focus on the Federal Employees Retirement System (“FERS”). This is a retirement program for federal workers. The program is similar to Social Security in a number of ways.

-FERS collects money from government workers and their employer.

-The program pays benefits to eligible workers and their families.

-FERS has a trust fund. Currently there is $775b of Special Issue Treasury securities in the fund. This is equivalent to 6% of our total debt and is therefore a very big deal. FERS holds as much of our paper as do the Chinese and the Federal Reserve.

-FERS is running a cash flow deficit. This is a new phenomenon. FERS is converting itself into a defined contribution plan that will address some of the problems. However the cash drain experienced in 2010 will not be reversed in the foreseeable future. It will increase...........Cash out at FERS was $70b. Cash in was only $4.0b. The difference of ~$66b is the real measure of what is happening at FERS. They are sucking down cash. A substantial portion of the deficit is funded with debt creation.

static.businessinsider.com/image/...4bd7c8275a200000/chart.jpg

auch kein unkonventionelles Schiefergas, "normalerweise" gibt es ja auch keine weltweite Erdgasschwemme, die den Erdgaspreis in den liberalisierten Märkten USA und England abstürzen läßt (wir hier in Deutschland beziehen natürlich vorwiegend ölpreisgebundenes russisches Erdgas, da sagen wir unseren Politikern Danke!).

Erdgasartikel aus spiegel:
"Die brachiale Suche nach Gas im Gestein
Tonschiefer-Formationen auf allen Kontinenten enthalten offenbar gigantische Mengen an Erdgas. Die Aussicht auf Förderung dieser bisher unberücksichtigten Reserve elektrisiert Energiepolitiker und Unternehmen weltweit. Doch die neue Option ist nicht ohne Risiken......"
www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/technik/0,1518,723318,00.html

Da es in Zeiten der Globalisierung keinen Sinn mehr macht, Probleme lokal anzugehen, ist es folgerichtig, dass sich Krugman über die Sparmaßnahmen in der EU sorgt. Sie werden in den PIIGS-Staaten mit ziemlicher Sicherheit zu einer deflationären Entwicklung führen. Auch die neuen Sparmaßnahmen in England dürften Krugman nicht passen.

Krugman will aber keine generelle Blähung, wie sie der Fed vorschwebt, sondern er übt sich mMn in Schadensminimierung. Dazu gehört auch, dass Europa, soweit nötig, den globalen deflationären Tendenzen entgegenzuwirken versucht. Die Kehrseite dieser Medaille ist freilich genau jene fiskalpolitische "Disziplinlosigkeit", die Weber gerade an Trichet und Co. so vehement gerügt hat.

Der Unterschied ist mMn, dass sich Europa - wo der Karren mangels Housing-Krise weniger tief im Dreck steckt - diese Sparmaßnahmen in den PIIGS gerade noch leisten kann (nicht zuletzt dank der relativen Stärke Deutschlands). In USA hingegen ist wegen der struktuellen Schwächen weiteres Defizit-Spending ein Muss. Es führt allerdings nicht aus der Krise heraus (wie Bernanke weismachen will), sondern verhindert lediglich den Absturz in eine zweite Große Depression.

Sollte es nach den Wahlen zu einem Gridlock kommen (sehr wahrscheinlich) und bleiben weitere Stimuluspakete aus, weil die Reps und Tea-Party-Leute diese blockieren, sieht es für die Zukunft Amerikas düster aus. Auch in dem Punkt stimme ich Krugman zu.

As the Dollar Gains, Stocks Roll Over

By Rev Shark
Street.com Contributor
10/21/2010 11:57 AM EDT

The momentum has sputtered out, and the action has turned ugly. All you have to do is take a look at the dollar to understand why. As the dollar has strengthened, the market has rolled over.

Breadth is about flat, with strength in retailers and some of the big-cap technology names leading the action. The aggressive buying of Amazon.com (AMZN, Chart in # 186, A.L.) in front of its report tonight reminds me of the action in Apple (AAPL) in front of its report. Expectations are extremely high, and it won't take much to disappoint.

I took some stops on long positions and started a short of iShares Silver Trust (SLV). Silver looks like it is developing a short-term top, which is really just the inverse of a bottom in the dollar. Nonetheless, I like the looks of a silver short technically.

At the time of publication, DePorre was short SLV.

aus dem US-Staatshaushalt bis 2013.

Das ist mehr als die Hälfte dessen, was der AIG-Bailout in 2008 gekostet hat.

Manche bezeichnen den laufenden "Stealth"-Bailout von Fannie und Freddie, die als Staats-Zombies eine praktisch unbegrenzte Abbuchungsermächtigung bei Uncle Sam haben, als QE 1.5

www.marketwatch.com/story/...-363-billion-regulator-2010-10-21

- Coal production decreased by 8.5 percent or 99.1 million short tons to a level of 1,072.8 million short tons
- U.S. coal consumption decreased by 10.7 percent or 120.1 million short tons to a level of 1,000.4 million short tons
- U.S. coal exports decreased by 27.5 percent or 22.4 million short tons to a level of 59.1 million short tons
- Total coal stocks increased by 16.4 percent or 33.7 million short tons to end the year at a record level of 238.8 million short tons"

Quelle: U.S. Coal Supply and Demand - 2009 Review der U.S. Energy Information Administration ( www.eia.gov )

Hierzu noch der Chart der durchschnittlichen monatlichen Spotpreise für Kohle diverser Provenienzen:

Diese Rally schafft doch nun wirklich dahingehend "Vertrauen", dass diese vermaledeite Krise doch bitteschön nun mal endlich abgehakt ist. Und es läuft ja wirklich alles so super, die Earnings kommen bei der Wall Street gut an, Sheila Bair lehnt sich weit aus dem Fenster und verkündet vollmundig, dass "foreclosuregate was a "paperwork" problem that we can get through", Well Fargo tönen, dass " they are confident everything is in order" und nicht zu unterschlagen das ganze bullishe Medien-Getrommel, welches diese Rally begleitet. Beispielhaft hierzu mal den Perma-Bullen James Altucher, welcher nun endlich wieder die "passenden Börsen-Bühnenbretter" unter seinen Schuhen vorfindet.

Aktuell im Yahoo Tech-Ticker:

James Altucher Says the Prophets of Doom Are All Wrong

Seine Kernaussagen kurz zusammengefasst:

1. Stocks 'always go up' and are a 'good buy' at any price.

2. Despite every indication to the contrary, the American capitalist / growth economic model is destined for infinite prosperity under any circumstance.

3. Doom-and-gloomers are a bunch of 'negative Nancies' that, more than anything, have an 'attitude problem'.

LOL.

finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/...mp;pos=9&asset=&ccode