weil sich die "Labor Force" erhöhte. 75.000 Leute von den über 1,1 Mio., die die Jobsuche bislang als hoffnungslos aufgegeben hatten, meldeten sich wieder arbeitslos. Dementsprechend erhöhte sich auch die "offizielle" AL-Quote von 9,5 % im Juli auf jetzt 9,6 %.
Die für August mit netto -54.000 gemeldeten neu geschaffenen Stellen (identisch mit Juli) reichen bei weitem nicht aus, um die rund 150.000 Amis in Lohn und Brot zu bringen, die jeden Monat per saldo neu in den Arbeitsmarkt strömen. Die AL-Quote dürfte daher weiter steigen. Selbst wenn 200.000 Stellen MEHR als jetzt geschaffen würde, würde die AL-Quote lediglich KONSTANT bleiben.
Gene Balas
Non-farm Post Mortem
9/3/2010 9:00 AM EDT
Nonfarm payroll employment changed little (-54,000) in August, and the unemployment rate was about unchanged at 9.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Government employment fell, as 114,000 temporary workers hired for the decennial census completed their work. Private-sector payroll employment continued to trend up modestly (+67,000). State and local governments shed 10,000 workers. Combined, the private sector and state and local government payrolls grew by 57,000 positions and federal government payrolls grew by 3,000 outside of the Census. I note that to absorb just the new entrants to the labor force, payrolls need to grow by 100,000 to 150,000 per month. Manufacturing payrolls decreased by 27,000, versus a survey forecast of a 10,000 increase, after gaining 34,000 the previous month.
Considering the people who have given up on their job search for the time being and people who are working part time but would like a full time job, the broad U-6 unemployment rate rose from 16.5% to 16.7%. In the household survey, we see that there were 290,000 more people were employed, while 261,000 more people were unemployed, as the labor force grew by 550,000 people. (This survey is based on a smaller number of respondents than the establishment survey.) This suggests more people are gaining confidence in the jobs market - or perhaps were prompted by necessity as jobless benefits expire - to search for a job. In that regard, the number of "discouraged workers," who would like a job but aren't looking and are thus not counted as officially unemployed, fell by 75,000 to 1,110,000 in August.
There was also good news on revisions to prior months: The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised from -221,000 to -175,000, and the change for July was revised from -131,000 to -54,000.
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