Der USA Bären-Thread

Some technicians say the S&P 500's move below 1040 signals a technical "head and shoulders" pattern, a bearish sign for stocks.

According to Barclays chief global technician Jordan Kotick, the S&P is heading into that pattern, but it's not quite there yet. The signals appeared last week and suggest serious downside vulnerability.

The "head and shoulders" is a distribution pattern that historically leads to lower prices, said Scott Redler, a technical analyst with T3Live.com. The pattern started in mid-October, when the left shoulder rallied from a level of 1040 to a level of 1150 in January. At that point, the uptrend broke and created the 9 percent move lower into the Feb. 5 reversal, leading to a move to 1217.

That uptrend in turn broke May 4, creating the head. From May 4, the market declined back to 1040, which provided a bounce that became the neck line. The market's move to 1131, on June 21, built the top of the right shoulder.

Redler said he believes the pattern was reached by the S&P 500 at the 1040 level Tuesday, which closed at 1041.

"Now we're back at the 1040 level which was the neckline, breached briefly today. The pattern is complete," Redler said. "Once this 1040 is taken out with volume, the measured move of this pattern takes us down to 970, 940 area and these patterns resolve quickly."

London's FTSE is also close to a head and shoulders pattern. Barclay's Kotick says you can't watch just the S&P to get negative view, as last year the market went into a "head fake" head and shoulders pattern from May to July—and the market raced higher afterwards.

But this time global markets are flashing warning signs.

Kotick also says the more worrisome technical moves have been in the global bond markets, where multi-year low rates are sending a negative signal for stocks. He pointed also to movement earlier this month in the swiss/euro cross, which hit record levels.

Hier werden nur die privaten Stellen berücksichtigt. Somit ist ein Einfluss durch die laufende Volkszählung nicht enthalten.

Der Konsens erwartet einen Stellenaufbau von 60.000 Stellen. Im öffentlichen Sektor sollten aufgrund der auslaufenden Volkszählung und der Entlassungswellen auf Staats und County Ebende massiv Stellen abgebaut worden sein.

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US private employers added a paltry 13,000 jobs in June, compared to a revised gain of 57,000 in May, a report by a payrolls processor showed on Thursday.

The May figure was originally reported as a gain of 55,000.

The median of estimates from 30 economists surveyed by Reuters for the ADP Employer Services report, jointly developed with Macroeconomic Advisers, was for a rise of 60,000 private-sector jobs in June.

The ADP figures come ahead of the government's much more comprehensive labor market report on Friday.

That report is expected to show a fall in nonfarm payrolls of 110,000 in June overall, as many temporary workers hired to complete the government's decennial census were laid off.

However, a gain in private payrolls of 112,000 is expected, according to a Reuters poll of analysts. ECI/US Economists often refer to the ADP report to fine-tune their expectations for the payrolls numbers, though it is not always accurate in predicting the outcome.

Stock index futures immediately shed gains and indicated a negative market open. Treasurys also pared losses.

Zwei Berichte am heutigen Tag, Berichte aus zwei unterschiedlichen Welten. In Deutschland erholt sich der Arbeitsmarkt überraschend gut, in den USA kommt der Markt nicht in Schwung.

Nach der gängigen volkswirtschaftlichen Theorie ist dieses kaum möglich. Der US Arbeitsmarkt ist freier und unregulierter als der deutsche und sollte somit schneller wieder Stellen schaffen. Es gibt jedoch viele Sonderfaktoren. Deutschland ist Profiteur der Nachfrage aus Asien, Deutschland erfreut sich am relativ schwachen Euro, noch dazu schrumpft das Arbeitskräfteangebot in Deutschland um ca. 100.000 Personen p.a. durch den demographischen Wandel.

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