Wenn man aktuell durch diverse und einschlägig bekannte Seiten im Netz blättert, so fällt einem doch wiederholt auf, dass vielerorts vorsichtigere Töne angeschlagen werden, nicht nur was die künftige Entwicklung der Aktienmärkte betrifft. Es ist daher nicht verwunderlich, dass nach den teilweise enormen Anstiegen in diesem Jahr - Anstiege, welche auch in anderen Asset-Klassen parallel vollzogen wurden - dazu geraten wird, einen Großteil der Chips vom Tisch zu nehmen und verstärkt ins Cash zu gehen. Comments in dieser Hinsicht stammen nicht nur von kritischen Beobachtern wie hier stellvertretend CyclePros Steve Williams, welcher trefflich ausführt:
"But once Wall Street decides it is time to exit, retail investors will be left holding expensive stocks. Wall Street profits have to come from somewhere, and foreign investors and domestic retail investors are the sheep about to be fleeced."
sondern auch hier u.a. von Robert Lenzner, dem National Editor des Forbes Magazins
Don't Be A Sucker, Take Your Gains
Odds are the huge rebound since March has run its course. And even though it yields nothing, it's time to raise cash.
Nothing is screamingly cheap.
The easy money has been made in both equities and fixed income. From the low point in March, it seems you can't pick an asset class that hasn't gained something in the area of 60%. That was some fear discount back in March.
During this universal recovery, as in most post-recessionary periods, lower-quality high-yield bonds have outperformed quality issues, and lots of smart guys who had the guts and money to buy them at the depths are cashing out--convinced that risks of continued exposure outweigh possible rewards of staying long.
"It's past the time to lighten up, no reason to chase risk assets from currently lofty valuations," says Paul McCulley, managing director at Pimco. "To the contrary, the time has come to begin paring exposure to risk assets, and if their prices continue to rise, paring at an accelerated pace."
Money market funds, according to latest numbers, are down half a trillion on the year. Stock mutual funds have drawn a measly $5 billion, while taxable bond funds have drawn almost $250 billion, and municipal bond funds $60 billion.
The big winners since the stock market bottomed in March have been emerging-markets stocks, up a stunning 99% on the iShares MSCI EAFE Index ( eem - news - people ). Corporate junk bonds are up 50% as measured by the iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ( HYG - news - people ) ETF, while the iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond ( LQD - news - people ) fund is up a comparatively modest 21%.
The truth is that few investors have taken the risk of equities. Most have taken a more conservative route, though the payoff has been commensurate with stocks. Even some municipal bond funds are up double-digits in the past year.
The reason is that the Fed has resolved to maintain "exceptionally low levels of the Federal funds rate for an extended period." The yield spread is steepest in a very great time, allowing traders to borrow dollars at zero cost to hold securities yielding anywhere from 3.4% on 10-year Treasuries to 6% to 8% on riskier corporate paper.
So, what to do? Guardian Life's Sorell is putting money to work at 5% in residential mortgage-backed bonds with three- to four-year maturities--a risk worth taking. He's also ventured more bravely into 10-year BB corporate bonds yielding 8%--good if you feel comfortable taking the risk. That's kosher for life insurance companies that can afford to hold to maturity.
In the bigger picture, though, there's a major disconnect between stocks and Treasuries. Stocks are predicting a V-shaped recovery, while bonds are forecasting a more subdued U-shaped recovery--maybe even the dreaded W brand of a double-dip recession. I'm going to give greater weight to the clues I'm getting from the bond market, for I learned a valuable lesson in 2007 to scrutinize the credit markets as a hint of what's in store for equity markets.
Yes, there is euphoria baked into the prices of gold and oil, and money is pouring into Asian markets threatening another possible bubble. Behind all the combustible elements that could trigger inflation are still sizable deflationary forces, like the potential disasters lurking in commercial U.S. real estate. Stock market bulls do not see the bearish signals being sent by the vulnerable part of the credit markets. Is there a trillion-dollar meltdown coming in commercial real estate, or has it already been discounted?
We are back to levels seen in 2007 and early 2008 in some credit markets, as represented by the action in the residential mortgage-backed bond index, ABX, a prime indicator of the credit quality of subprime real estate loans. The ABX Triple A index is only 31 cents on the dollar, having fallen 50% since May, contrary to the euphoria in equity and bond markets.
Even more worrisome is the Armageddon reading for the commercial real estate index, CMBX. The cost of protecting non-investment-grade mortgages on commercial projects has skyrocketed to 3250 basis points, more than three times greater than the cost of insuring commercial real estate loans back in June. It translates into an annual $3.2 million premium for insuring $10 million in real estate.
There's also the peril of prolonged U.S. budget deficits. We're talking about the long-term financial deterioration of the United States. Look at the Fed's total net borrowing and lending in credit markets. The numbers of the domestic nonfinancial sector are down by over a trillion dollars; the private sector is deleveraging.
Meanwhile, the public sector--state, local and national governments--are adding debt. What does it mean if the U.S. loses its triple-A credit rating next year? Or if its $12 trillion in outstanding government securities become rated "junk bonds."
Consider that the present value of Uncle Sam's liabilities, including Social Security and Medicare, is four times the value of the nation's economy. The cost of servicing that debt could be $2.5 trillion, according to William Cline of the Peterson Institute. That $2.5 trillion is equal to the nation's entire cost of health care today.
Opines Richard Clarida, Pimco global strategic adviser, "The relative attractiveness of U.S. assets has [declined] and will likely continue to decline, and global investors may seek to rebalance away from their 60% increase in their net exposure to U.S. assets that occurred in 2008. This is negative for the dollar, and also likely negative for the relative performance of U.S. equities."
So, if you trust the fellows who manage one of the largest accumulations in the world of other people's money, you should bloody well not be greedy. Take your large profits that seemed hard to imagine a year ago.
The markets may have more run in them due to all the cash on the sidelines and the bullish sentiments evident on blogs and cable television.
But the bottom line is that it's getting very hard to find obviously undervalued shares, or other assets for that matter. Don't obsess right now about getting zero income; it's better than double-digit losses.
www.forbes.com/2009/11/20/...vesting-ideas-life-insurance.html
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Bubbles are normal and non-bubble times are depressions!
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