Der USA Bären-Thread

Die Frage beschäftigt mich immer noch sehr, bin aber zu keiner klareren Einschätzung als gestern gekommen. Get the view

Considered view

12 Oct 2009 10:28

Lingering pains

BY EDWARD HADAS  AND  CONSTANTINE COURCOULAS

BES:  It is easier to fall into a hole than to climb out of one. Authorities around the world have been making massive efforts to help countries emerge from the worst recession in decades. Their efforts may be working, but there are few signs of anything like a V-shaped recovery. The Breakingviews.com Economic Spot-check came in last week at 2.4 on a scale of one to five. That was up from the previous week’s 2.3, but still closer to Slow Decline than Stability. 

The pessimism of big corporate bosses pulled the index down. The head of HSBC, a bank that has performed relatively well in the crisis, is talking about a second downturn. Hotel operator Marriott sees pressure on margins continuing into 2010. And at chemical producer DuPont, they’re not expecting to see 2008 profit levels again until 2012. 

A major rebuilding of inventory and takeoff of world trade could be just around the corner, but too much of the good news in the BES remains in the one sector governments and central banks have done the most to help: finance. Banks have been able to raise capital and one big broker just upgraded the whole sector. 

Recession blues (1 on the BES scale) 

1. New York’s income tax revenue has dropped 36% from the same period in 2008, Governor David Paterson said. (October 5) 

2. First- and business-class traffic at British Airways is still below the level of the previous year, even after the anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers. (October 5) 

3. Michael Geoghegan, HSBC’s chief executive, said he was delaying the bank's expansion plans because he feared a second downturn was likely. (October 5) 

4. Condé Nast will close four magazines – Modern Bride, Elegant Bride, Gourmet and Cookie – following a review the publisher undertook to find ways to reduce costs and staff in the face of a slump in advertising. (October 5) 

5. UK manufacturing output dropped sharply in August, leaving manufacturing production at its lowest since 1992. (October 6) 

6. The vacancy rate at US strip malls reached a 17-year high in the third quarter and mall vacancy was the highest in at least 10 years, according to real estate research firm Reis Inc. (October 6) 

7. Latvia denied it was planning to devalue its currency amid a fresh wave of concern over the crisis-hit Baltic economy. (October 7) 

8. Chemicals maker DuPont says it does not expect to match last year's profit levels until at least 2012, according to a filing with US regulators. (October 7) 

9. Italian designer label Versace is pulling out of Japan after nearly 30 years in the country. (October 7) 

10. The gold price hit an all-time high for a third consecutive day – $1058.48 an ounce in intraday trading. (October 8) 

11. Private equity funds raised $4.9bn in the third quarter, the lowest quarterly total since 2003. (October 8) 

12. Marriott International said pricing pressures would continue to erode margins next year. (October 8) 

Slow or slower decline (2 on the BES scale) 

1. The Conference Board, a private US research group, said its Employment Trends Index edged up to 88.5 in September from an upwardly revised 88.2 in August. The index is now down 15.6% from one year ago, the group said. (October 5) 

2. Google chief Eric Schmidt said the worst of the advertising recession was over, and pointed to signs of a recovery in both Europe and the United States. (October 7) 

3. US retailers reported better-than-expected sales figures in September, although the majority of stores reported continuing sales declines. (October 8) 

4. The number of US workers filing new jobless claims hit a nine-month low last week. (October 8) 

Stability (3 on the BES scale) 

1. The number of corporate defaults slowed markedly in the US in September, preliminary data from Standard & Poor's have shown. (October 5) 

2. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index rose to 50.9 in September from 48.5 in August. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. (October 5) 

3. UK supermarket leader Tesco said the UK economy was through its “low point'” (October 6) 

4. Alcoa, the biggest US aluminium producer returned to profitability in the third quarter. (October 8) 

5. Luxury goods producer Bulgari’s chief executive said sales are improving, led by Asia and handbag demand. (October 9) 

Return to normal growth (4 on the BES scale) 

1. Caterpillar, the world's largest maker of earth-moving equipment, said it plans to raise prices on most of its machinery up to 2% next year. (October 5) 

2. The Reserve Bank of Australia became the first in the G20 to raise interest rates since the onset of the financial crisis. (October 5) 

3. John Lewis, the UK department store, recorded a strong start to October, with retail sales rising by 6.3% year-on-year. (October 9) 

4. Germany's manufacturing rebounded with a surprisingly-strong 1.4% monthly increase in industrial orders in August. (October 7) 

Off to the races (5 on the BES scale) 

1. TSMC, the world’s biggest contract semiconductor maker, said third-quarter sales rose by a fifth from the previous three months. (October 9) 

2. The European banking sector was upgraded to “overweight” by Bank of America Merrill Lynch. (October 6)

3. French bank Société Générale launched a E4.8bn rights issue to repay state support and fund takeovers. (October 6)

edward.hadas@breakingviews.com ,constantine.courcoulas@breakingviews.com

Copyright © breakingviews 2009

Hier ein Chart, der zeigt, wie brutal Höhenflüge plötzlich enden können. Es ist der Erdgas-Chart aus # 50551, horizontal gespiegelt.

Wer meint, dass wäre Quatsch: Genau so stellt sich die G/V-Lage für die vielen Hedgefonds dar, die aktuell short auf Gas (gepaart mit long in Öl) sind. Obwohl die Fundamentals beim Gas nach wie vor negativ sind (steigende Vorräte, neue Feldfunde), sehen wir einen höllischen Short-Squeeze (Gas-Futures stiegen heute um 19 %).

Da die Akteure stark gehebelt mit Futures unterwegs sind, gibt es kein Halten mehr, wenn die Sache erst mal in Bewegung kommt (man denke nur an die Pleite des HF Amaranth, der seinerzeit zu viele Longs in Gas hatte),  Der hohe Hebel lässt keine Zeit, etwaige technische Korrekturen abzuwarten. So folgt einer Extrembewegung scheinbar "sinnlos" eine Gleiche in die Gegenrichtung. Im Rohstoffmarkt sahen wir einen solchen Erdrutsch in der 2 JH 2008, als Öl von 147 auf 35 Dollar abschmierte (siehe Öl-Chart im nächsten Posting).

Aktuell sind die Hedgefonds übrigens alle long in Aktien, Bonds, Gold usw., um ihre "Jahresperformance aufzubessern". Das könnte genauso enden wie beim Gas-Short, muss aber nicht.

Verbesserung am US Arbeitsmarkt. Außerdem stellt er fest: Obam macht alles richtig, den Anstieg der Arbeitslosigkeit auf dieses Niveau haben die Republikaner zu verantworten.
Ich stelle fest: Larry Summers ist dick geworden.

Permanent

Summers Sees 'Smedia.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/Sections/...OPLE/S/summers_lawrence.jpg" style="max-width:560px" />ubstantial Change' in Jobs Trend

U.S. President Barack Obama's top economic adviser said Monday the United States is on the path toward economic recovery, conditions in financial markets are steadier and there have been initial signs of stabilization in the housing market.

"Thanks largely to the Recovery Act, alongside an aggressive financial stabilization plan and a program to keep responsible homeowners in their homes, we have walked a substantial distance back from the economic abyss and are on the path toward economic recovery," Larry Summers said in a letter to be sent to Republican House Leader John Boehner that amounted to a defense of the Democratic Obama administration's policies on the economy.

Obama is facing rising clamor to take new steps to lift the economy and jump-start job growth, as U.S. unemployment edges toward 10 percent and the country faces soaring budget deficits.

The bleak jobs picture could put some of Obama's Democratic allies at risk in next year's congressional elections, unless voters are convinced they are doing all they can to help the economy.

"Most importantly, we have seen a substantial change in the trend of job loss," Summers said in the letter, which the White House said was written in response to a letter from Boehner to Obama, which it did not release.

The U.S. economy lost jobs at a monthly average rate of 256,000 in the third quarter of 2009, which Summers termed "unacceptably high." But he noted it was nearly a third of the pace of job losses of two quarters ago.

One dilemma for Obama is that Republicans, seizing on the rise in the unemployment rate to 9.8 percent, argue that the $787 billion stimulus package passed earlier this year was ineffective. Republicans are pushing for additional tax cuts as the solution to the country's economic woes.

Touting Obama Plan, Blaming Republicans

Summers said private forecasters have estimated that the stimulus program added 3 percentage points to second quarter annualized GDP growth, and that they have forecast a return to positive growth for the economy in the third quarter.

They also said the unemployment rate would be two percentage points lower by the end of 2010 than it would have been without the stimulus plan, Summers wrote.

He noted the improvement in U.S. stock market performance since early this year and said, "Conditions in our financial markets have stabilized, and the risk of financial collapse has receded." And he noted recent indicators showing that the housing market, which was central to the financial market collapse, has also shown signs of stabilization.

Hitting back at Republicans who are trying to lay blame on Obama for the U.S. budget deficit, Summers said Obama inherited a deficit well in excess of $1 trillion when he took office, and said the policies of Obama's Republican predecessor, former President George W. Bush, led to the shortfall.

"The bipartisan commitment to fiscal discipline that existed during the 1990s evaporated during the 2000s. Every major policy enacted during this period violated the principle of paying for new proposals," Summers wrote.

Unpaid for tax cuts in 2001 and 2003 have added more than $2 trillion to the U.S. national debt, Summers said; the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were not paid for and Congress in 2003 passed a Medicare Prescription Drug bill that was offset by neither spending cuts nor tax increases.

As he pushes for healthcare reform, his top domestic policy priority, Obama has insisted that his reform plans will not add to the deficit.

FTD

Druckmaschinen

Heideldruck versetzt Anleger in Panik

Der Weltmarktführer für Druckmaschinen ist in Schieflage geraten. Die Lösung der Probleme sollte die Fusion mit dem größten Konkurrenten bringen. Doch Manroland ist eine Ehe zu heikel - und bläst das Geschäft ab. Eine entscheidende Rolle könnte dabei die Allianz gespielt haben. Heideldruck-Aktien fallen um 25 Prozent.

www.ftd.de/unternehmen/industrie/...ger-in-panik/50022272.html