Schaut euch nun mal die Charts zu folgenden Kürzeln an:
JPM - HBAN - JNS - JPM - MTG - RK - SOV - WB - WM - XL - ZION
CTX - DHI - KIM - LEN
und natürlich den im Anhang, der zum größten domestic Commercial Real Estate Unternehmen gehört.
what happened? Aus dem ganzen Optimismus der letzte Woche folgt eine massive Eintrübung der Aussichten!
Der Ölpreisanstieg über die letzten 7 Tage (+30%) lässt alle wieder ängstlich auf die Konjunkturaussichten blicken. Und die haben sich trotz des Rettungspakets der US-Regierung für die Finanzbranche nicht wirklich gebessert. Zumal die daraus resultierenden finanziellen Belastungen den fiskalpolitischen Spielraum des amerikanischen Staates deutlich einschränken werden. Im Übrigen, ich weiß gar nicht, wie das ganze Ding funktionieren soll? Meiner Kenntnis nach, ist die Genehmigung durch das Kongress noch ausstehend: Programm ist noch nicht scharfgestellt.
In den nächsten Tagen werden einige neue Daten zum US-Immobilienmarkt (Di. OFHEO-Index, Mi. Verkaufszahlen bestehender Häuser) veröffentlicht. Möglich, dass die für eine erneute Entspannung sorgen werden, absehbar ist aber auch ein anhaltender Abwärtstrend am Häusermarkt.
In Deutschland ist der Blick vor allem auf das ifo-Geschäftsklima am Mittwoch gerichtet, weiterer Rückgang kann erwartet werden. Als nächstes erwarte ich eine deutliche Absenkung der Gewinnprognosen für das Jahr 2008, sowie Senkung der Gewinnprognosen in 2009.
Kurzfristig kann noch ein bisschen Strohfeuer, insbesondere nach dem heutigen Rückgang erwartet werden. Mittelfristig, also vom November - Januar 2009 könnten wir ein richtiges Fiasko erleben. Dann, einschließlich der KGV-Index-Anpassungen.
Wie ich schon letzte Woche sagte: Ich freue mich nicht über die Gewinne aus den Long-Positionen letzter Woche, ich freue mich vielmehr auf die immer wieder aussichtsreichere Short-Potenziale. Geil wäre es, wenn der Dow Richtung 12.000 laufen könnte. Dann würde ich komplett alles auflösen und einfach nur noch SHORT GEHEN!
Retail Group Sees Weakest Holiday Sales in 6 YearsRETAIL, HOLIDAY SALES, SHOPPING, STORES, NATIONAL RETAILS FEDERATIONBy APThe Associated Press| 23 Sep 2008 | 01:38 AM ET
Holiday sales are expected to grow at the slowest pace in six years as shoppers worry about jobs, the housing and stock markets and high gas and food prices, according to a forecast from the National Retail Federation being released Tuesday.
The outlook from the retail trade group joins other weak holiday predictions issued so far that will likely lead to aggressive discounting and pre-Thanksgiving sales blitzes as stores try to pry dollars from frugal shoppers.
Merchants have also scaled back holiday inventories and seasonal sales staff from a year ago. The challenges are compounded by a holiday season that has five fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas Day than in 2007, which could make consumers delay their buying.
"You don't have a good picture," said Rosalind Wells, the NRF's chief economist. Last week's financial turbulence, from Lehman Brothers filing for bankruptcy protection to a proposed $700 billion government bailout of the financial system, "only increases the uncertainty and anxiety," she said. Wells said she doesn't expect an economic turnaround until the second half of next year.
The Washington-based trade association predicted that total holiday sales will rise a modest 2.2 percent for the November and December period from a year ago, to $470.4 billion. That would be below the ten-year average of 4.4 percent holiday sales growth and a bit below the 2.4 percent gain last year. It would also be the slowest pace since 1.3 percent in 2002.
Total retail sales figures from the NRF exclude business from auto dealers, gas stations, and restaurants. The estimate also excludes online sales and reflects last week's financial turmoil, Wells said.
Two other forecasts, from Deloitte Research and TNS Retail Forward, that were made before the recent market turbulence had predicted the weakest holiday growth since 1991 -- though they use different metrics.
Deloitte Research expects total holiday sales -- excluding motor vehicles and gasoline, but including online sales -- to rise 2.5 percent to 3 percent in the November through January period, less than last year's 3.4 percent gain. A rise of 2.5 percent to 2.8 percent in that period would be the smallest gain since 1991, Deloitte noted.
TNS Retail Forward, a global market information group, sees retail sales rising 1.5 percent in the October through December period, the weakest performance since 1991. The figure includes online sales but excludes sales from gas, supermarkets, restaurants, drug chains and autos.
The downbeat forecasts come as many retailers have already suffered from a weak fall shopping season. While autumn selling isn't a predictor of holiday sales, it's seen as a barometer of consumers' willingness to spend. And right now, shoppers don't seem to feel generous. While they have been squeezed by high gas and food prices, they are also contending with a weak job market and tighter credit. Last week's financial turbulence could further rattle people's confidence, which was near historic lows in August, according to the Conference Board. The group is expected to release its latest reading on Sept. 30.
Stores are closely monitoring what's happening on Wall Street as lawmakers rush to put their imprint on the Bush administration's massive plan to save financial markets. Any more upheaval could lead to stores' retooling their plans, including hiring. Holiday hiring is already likely to fall significantly short of last year's total, which was the lowest since 2003, according to job placement consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
Given the anemic environment, Wells expects discounters to keep faring well as shoppers focus on price. Joshua Thomas, a spokesman for Target , which has been hurt in this weak economy because of its emphasis on nonessentials such as trendy jeans and housewares, said the chain is focusing on gifts under $25 in its holiday marketing.
Chris Byrne, a New York-based toy consultant, said that toy sales could suffer too as parents may cut back. "Consumers are nervous about what they are going to spend. They may buy fewer toys," he said.
Byrne believes, though, that there will be isolated hits. He cited Elmo Live, made by Mattel's Fisher-Price unit, which will be in stores Oct. 14, as well as anything related to "Star Wars" and Bakugam, action figure warriors from Spin Master Ltd. that he said have been very popular.
Mall-based apparel stores will likely keep struggling, as shoppers cut back on discretionary spending or shift their buying to stores such as T.J. Maxx , which offers major brands at discounts.
Analysts are closely monitoring luxury stores, whose sales have slowed in recent months. Goldman Sachs analyst Adrianna Shapira noted in a report last week that New York City luxury flaghips are unlikely to remain bright spots amid Wall Street's turmoil.
"The slowdown will undoubtedly ripple beyond NYC to impact others tied to high-end spending such as Coach, Nordstrom and Ralph Lauren," Shapira wrote.
FRANKFURT (AWP International) - Die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) hat angesichts der anhaltenden Spannungen an den Finanzmärkten eine zusätzliche Liquiditätsspritze in Höhe von 40 Milliarden US-Dollar angekündigt. In Zusammenarbeit mit der US-Notenbank sei ein Schnelltender über einen Tag geplant, teilte die EZB am Dienstag in Frankfurt mit. Gebote werden bis 9.45 Uhr angenommen. Die Zuteilung soll um 11:45 Uhr erfolgen. Der marginale Zinssatz werde dem gleichzeitigen Dollar-Tender der US-Notenbank entsprechen./js/he
Ich bin eigentlich noch im Bärenfell. Wenn Jim Cramer aber zum Ausstieg bläst, dann sollte man schon kurz innehalten und über den Einstieg nachdenken. ..........................
Ich wünsche euch einen erfolgreichen Tag.
Cramer: Sell, Sell, SellBy Tom BrennanWeb Editorcnbc.com| 22 Sep 2008 | 06:57 PM ET
This market’s a triple sell, Cramer said during Monday’s Mad Money.
You might remember him saying exactly that on Friday. He urged viewers to trim 20% of their portfolio both to preserve capital and to raise cash. Investors always want at least some money on the sidelines so they can buy stocks when the time is right.
But that time is not now. Cramer’s seen an environment like this before. It came immediately after the crash of 1987. The rally that followed was overshadowed by fears of systemic risk in the system. Sound familiar? We rallied big late last week after a crushing few days of trading, and then today we’re back down again. Washington’s moves to correct the system – whether they be Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson’s bailout plan or the SEC’s ban on short selling – haven’t yet removed the fear.
Think about it: Goldman Sachs , the firm that got subprime right, has been teetering on the edge of collapse. That doesn’t exactly instill confidence in the market. The way Cramer sees it, Paulson’s plan, the short-selling rules and the conversion of Goldman into a deposit bank may have removed the possibility of this once-great investment house’s collapse, but “it would be insane to feel good about anything financial,” Cramer said. “And by the way, all stocks, at the end of the day, are financial in a world where Goldman came that close to the brink.”
It’s hard to be bullish when oil spikes over $16 in a day, too.
Then there’s the SEC and its temporary ban in short selling. Cramer’s not a fan of the move, but at least it prevented the collapse of the Western financial world, he said. But stocks are too high because of these rules, so more corrections could be coming. And it’s not like Wall Street hasn’t already found a way around the rules, namely through put strategies and futures selling. Look at the declines the banks took today: Wells Fargo down 11%, US Bancorp down 8%, Bank of America down 9%. What happens when the rules are withdrawn?
Investors should play it as cautious as possible. That’s Cramer’s advice. Raise cash, buy gold. Even if Paulson’s plan goes through, there’s still earnings risk to worry about. It doesn’t make sense to get in ahead of a potential earnings miss.
Oddly enough, Cramer noted, the best investment you have right now could be your home. Both sides of the aisle are trying to solve the problem, which means a solution will come. Money will be available, tax credits created, fewer houses built and there will be fewer foreclosures. Finally, it appears this sector’s going to see some stability.
Cramer’s bottom line for this market: “If you’re already on the sidelines, stay there. If you’re not, keep on selling until you get that cash up to a respectable level and then go buy some gold.”
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