Der USA Bären-Thread

im Juli ist ausweislich des Charts des SP Industrials Index ebenso Realität wie die Anstiege im Januar, März bis Mai und - Juni (upps!)  

www.safehaven.com/article-11131.htm

Ford has been restructuring its North American operations  to account for what executives see as a permanent shift in  demand toward passenger cars and away from the larger trucks  and SUVs that had provided most of its profits in the past.

The automaker, which posted an $8.7 billion loss in the  second quarter, plans to shift some truck plants to car  production and is introducing several new car models in North  America including a subcompact Fiesta car.

U.S. sales at Ford's Volvo luxury brand fell 48.8 percent  in August. Ford announced on Tuesday that Stephen Odell would  become president and chief executive of Volvo on October 1,  succeeding Fredrik Arp, who is leaving Ford.

Ford cut its North American production plan by 50,000  vehicles for the second half of the year to 890,000 vehicles.  That would include 420,000 vehicles in the third quarter and  470,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter.

The production cut reflects lower sales to car rental  companies, the shifting of production of the Ford Expedition  and the Lincoln Navigator to Kentucky and a cut in the  company's U.S. industry sales forecast, Ford said.

Ford shares were up 8 cents at $4.59 Wednesday afternoon on  the New York Stock Exchange.

(Reporting by David Bailey; Editing by Brian Moss)

 

Soon after my article was published, hard evidence of a vast change in short positioning began to emerge. The first discovery was made by tireless silver market researcher, Ted Butler. The data he found led to yet more work, and, soon, similar activities were revealed in the gold market.  All this begs the question. Why would a handful of banks suddenly have the infinite wisdom to take incredibly large short positions, immediately before the unexpected rise in the value of the U.S. dollar, and the collapse of precious metals prices? Remember, these are probably the same players who got us, and themselves, into the credit crisis.

We don’t yet know all the details, but the information uncovered so far, is already of great importance to holders of physical gold, shares in streetTracks Gold (GLD), iShares Silver Trust (SLV), and/or the various gold and silver mining companies, such as Newmont Mining (NEM), Goldcorp (GG), etc. According to Rob Kirby, a precious metals market analyst, the most recent CFTC positions report shows that:…as of July 1, 2008, two U.S. banks were short 6,199 contracts of COMEX silver (30,995,000 ounces). As of August 5, 2008, two U.S. banks were short 33,805 contracts of COMEX silver (169,025,000 ounces), an increase of more than five-fold. This is the largest such position by U.S. banks I can find in the data, ever. Between July 14 and August 15th, the price of COMEX silver declined from a peak high of $19.55 (basis September) to a low of $12.22 for a decline of 38%.3 U.S. banks held a short position of 7,787 contracts (778,700 ounces) in July, and 3 U.S. banks held a short position of 86,398 contracts (8,639,800 ounces) in August, an eleven-fold increase and coinciding with a gold price decline of more than $150 per ounce. As was the case with silver, this is the largest short position ever by US banks in the data listed on the CFTC’s site.
The 3 banks in question are only the tip of the iceberg. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission [CFTC] does not group secondary controlled entities, like hedge funds and private equity groups, in the “bank” category, even though the funds may be wholly controlled by the banks. Beyond that, the visible portion of the futures market, though it has the most effect on the spot price, is not the biggest portion. A vastly greater unregulated inter-institutional market exists, and this market takes place inside so-called “dark pools”. The total short position taken by the alleged perpetrators, and the losses sustained by their potential victims, who include other institutions, is probably vastly greater than the researchers now realize.

Before we continue, it is important to understand what it means to take a “short” position in the futures market.........James Conrad
seekingalpha.com/article/...ulation-lawyers-prepare-for-battle
Disclosure: Author owns physical gold, holds a long position in GLD & SLV.

ist ein Börsenflüsterer "ohne Gewähr", den man gewähren lässt, da ja was dran sein könnte an sein Gewahrnehmungen.

ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/09/03/15575/...ont-like-frannie/
Or the US housing market full stop.

There has been plenty of discussion over the pullback in international markets from Fannie and Freddie debt.

Russia; China; Japan; no-one wants to buy ‘Frannie’ paper. Central banks have all been letting the stuff they’ve got mature without rolling it. Today’s WSJ picks up on another theme from the Chinese angle; how the Chinese government is also putting pressure on domestic banks further down the foodchain to ditch their GSE holdings.

That’s worrying because it’s evidence that behind what’s touted as merely a passive decision from central banks not to roll their holdings, there lies an active impetus towards reducing them. And it’s disturbing because it doesn’t seem to be a risk-reward driven decision either: the FNM, FRE bonds carry an explicit US government guarantee and right now they pay handsomely. There couldn’t, in other words, be a better time to buy these bonds.

As the WSJ article’s graphic might indicate, there are actually two issues here:
The light green part of the column relates to holdings of actual Frannie-issued paper - the corporate bonds the GSE’s issue as part of their funding mix. Too few buyers for that is an acute problem because it raises the cost of business for FNM and FRE and it makes them more likely to fail.

The dark green part of the columns though, is perhaps of greater impact to the US economy at large. Foreign buyers - in this case the bank of China - seem to be shying away from the actual mortgage-backed securities the GSE’s offer themselves, they’re turning away from the US mortgage market full stop.

The long term implication of that goes way beyond the significance of the GSE’s and the question over whether they survive or not.

Die USA zapfen wegen Versorgungsengpässen nach dem Hurrikan "Gustav" ihre strategischen Ölreserven an. Wie das Energieministerium in Washington mitteilte, sollen 250.000 Fass freigegeben werden. "Das Öl wird wegen der Sperrung des Calcasieu-Kanals in Louisiana und wegen der durch den Hurrikan 'Gustav' verursachten Lieferengpässe gebraucht", erklärte das Ministerium.

Wirtschaft in EU geschrumpft

Das EU-Statistikamt Eurostat hat am Mittwoch bestätigt, dass die Wirtschaft des Euroraumes wie auch der gesamten EU im zweiten Quartal 2008 geschrumpft ist. In der Eurozone lag das Minus im Vergleich zum ersten Quartal 2008 wie berichtet bei 0,2 Prozent, in allen 27 Ländern der EU im Durchschnitt bei 0,1 Prozent. In Österreich ist die Wirtschaft im zweiten Quartal gegen den Trend um 0,4 Prozent gewachsen.

Im Jahresabstand wuchs die Wirtschaft der Eurozone im zweiten Quartal um 1,4 Prozent und in der EU um 1,6 Prozent. Besonders stark gingen im zweiten Quartal im Vergleich zu den ersten drei Monaten 2008 mit 1,2 Prozent die Investitionen der Unternehmen zurück, auch der private Konsum war schwächer. (mimo, Reuters, AFP, DER STANDARD, Print-Ausgabe, 4.9.2008)

Die General Motors Corp. (GM) (Profil), der größte Automobilkonzern in den USA, wird ihre Mitarbeiter-Rabattaktion für Kunden bei vielen Modellen bis Ende September fortführen


man muss es nicht verstehen :)

Der Semiconductor Index SOX (US-Halbleiter-Aktien-Index) gilt als "Rückgrat" des Nasdaq-100 (NDX). Er testet sein Jahrestief nun zum dritten Mal. Ich fürchte, die Unterstützung wird bei diesem Anlauf brechen und den SOX auf neue Jahrestiefs befördern. Damit stehen auch für den NDX die Zeichen auf Sturm: Der NDX kann ohne Halbleiter ebensowenig steigen wie der SPX ohne die Banken.

.

wir sind jetzt am gelben Punkt. Der Ausbruch (vermutete und tatsächliche) nach oben war nicht überzeugend.

auf Grund der guten Meldung jetzt 7% Plus

So verringerte sich der Absatz um 20,3 Prozent auf 307.285 Einheiten. Im Vorjahreszeitraum waren noch 385.529 Fahrzeuge abgesetzt worden.

DETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors Corp and Ford Motor Co posted double-digit declines in U.S. vehicle sales on Wednesday as uncertain economic conditions undercut a renewed incentives push by Detroit automakers and deepened an industry slowdown.

GM's August sales tumbled 20.4 percent while Ford's sales fell 26.6 percent, forcing the automakers to announce steep second-half production cuts, likely putting a drag on their financial results.

Signaling more weakness in the months ahead, the No. 2 U.S.-based automaker said it expected the second half of 2008 to be more challenging than the first half.

Toyota's sales fell 9.4 percent while Nissan Motor Co Ltd surprised investors with a 13.6 percent increase in August sales.

The sales trends in August reflected the continued shift toward smaller, more economical passenger cars and away from large pickup trucks and sport utility vehicles.

U.S. demand for vehicles this year is expected to drop to near-decade lows, hurt by high gasoline prices, a housing market slump and tighter credit.

Ford now estimates 2008 U.S. auto industry sales to come in at the low end of its previous range of 14 million to 14.5 million units.

"We expect the second half of 2008 will be more challenging than the first half, as weak economic conditions and the consumer credit crunch continues," said Jim Farley, Ford group vice president of marketing.  Continued...
www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN0347396720080903

einfach ford.

In a speech today, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said the U.S. credit crunch has blunted the impact of the Fed's rate cuts, signaling he opposes raising borrowing costs. By contrast, the Fed said yesterday that directors of three other district banks asked to raise the charge on loans to commercial banks at the Aug. 5 policy meeting.

The previous Beige Book, released July 23, reported ``elevated or increasing'' price pressures amid slower economic growth. Five districts indicated ``a weakening or softening'' in their economies, and consumer spending was ``sluggish or slowing'' in every region.

At the last meeting, Fed policy makers agreed that their next change in rates would be an increase, with some officials concerned about inflation favoring an increase earlier than traders expect, according to minutes of their meeting.

Job Market

Today's report said labor markets were ``unchanged or somewhat softer'' across most of the country, compared with the last Beige Book. Several districts said the energy industry had worker shortages, the Fed reported.

About 463,000 Americans have lost jobs since January as the worst housing recession in a quarter century has curtailed spending and bank lending. Economists expect annualized rates of growth of 1 percent in the third quarter and 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg Survey in early August.

Manufacturing ``declined'' in most regions, and demand slowed for home mortgages and consumer loans, the Fed said today.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke in an Aug. 22 speech that inflation should ease later this year and in 2009, while warning that policy makers will act if price increases don't slow over the ``medium term.'' He said financial turmoil has ``not yet subsided'' and is contributing to weaker economic growth and higher unemployment.

Consumer Prices

The consumer price index rose 5.6 percent for the 12 months ending in July. The Fed's preferred benchmark, the personal consumption expenditures price index, minus food and energy, has been at 2 percent or higher since April 2004.

``All districts reported continuing upward price pressure from elevated input costs, although several noted recent retreats in some commodity and energy prices,'' the Fed said today.

The Beige Book's regional anecdotes are gathered through hundreds of telephone calls, news clippings and personal contact by the staff of the 12 Fed banks, whose districts cover all 50 U.S. states. The anecdotes are designed to supplement quantitative forecasts of the Board of Governors staff.

PS: AL #27213 - schöner Spruch :))

Das Chartbild des DJ US Industrial Metals Index mit EW-Zählung spricht - wie auch die Charts des DJ US Coal Index ($DJUSCL), des Heavy Construction Index ($DJUSHV) oder des Commercial Vehicles Index ($DJUSHR) - Bände. Dies ist kein Spotpreis- oder Futuresindex, sondern ein Produzentenindex.

Joy Global, Inc. engages in the manufacture and servicing of mining equipment for the extraction of coal, and other minerals and ores. The company operates in two segments, Underground Mining Machinery and Surface Mining Equipment. The Underground Mining Machinery segment manufactures underground mining equipment for the extraction of coal and other bedded minerals, as well as operates service locations near mining regions worldwide. Its product line includes continuous miners; longwall shearers; powered roof supports; armored face conveyors; shuttle cars; flexible conveyor trains; complete longwall mining systems, consisting of powered roof supports, an armored face conveyor, and a longwall shearer; feeder breakers; continuous haulage systems; battery haulers; and roof bolters. The Surface Mining Equipment segment produces electric mining shovels, rotary blasthole drills, and walking draglines for open-pit mining operations. These products are used in mining copper, coal, iron ore, oil sands, silver, gold, diamonds, phosphate, and other minerals and ores. This segment also provides a range of parts and services to mines; offers electric motor rebuilds, and other products and services to the non mining industrial segment; and sells used electric mining shovels in other markets. In addition, it designs, manufactures, installs, and services conveyor systems for bulk material handling in mining and other industrial applications.

Dieser NDX- und SPX-Wert hat in den letzten drei Handelstagen fast 30 % und seit dem Mai-Top rund 40 % verloren. Bezeichnend!

da sind wahrscheinlich jede Menge empfehlungs- und momentumgetriebene Kleinanleger drin, die im Zweifel gar nicht genau wissen, was "Joy" herstellt. Vielleicht Servicegesellschaft für die knappe Freizeit der Minenarbeiter?  ;o)
Schnell raus damit, genauso wie gerade die Goldproduzenten- und Minenbetreiber rausgehauen werden

waren heute die Financial, Retail und Real Estate Werte die "tragenden Säulen" im SPX. Im Counterpart stehen Werte wie Corning (der weltgrößte Produzent von Glas und Keramik, u.a. von Fassadenverkleidungen für Bürogebäude und andere "Repräsentativ-Gebäude" weltweit, wie etwa den Burj Tower in Dubai), MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR), Forest Labs (FRX - eines der größten Pharma- und Healthcare-Unternehmen) und Mastercard (MA). U.a. diese Unternehmen gehörten noch bis vor kurzem zu den tragenden Säulen der US Wirtschaft - und brechen nun regelrecht ein.

Trotz des Reversal am Dienstag und der Trendfortsetzung heute sollte man sich nicht täuschen was den aktuellen Downtrend bei den großen Indices anbelang und nun die Trendwende als sicher ansehen.Denn unterm Strich ist das Minus auf SK-Basis gestern und heute doch eher mager was teilweise auch der relativen Stärke im Bankensektor geschuldet ist und solange diese Stärke anhält wird das nichts mit nachhaltig Down.mM
Bisher hat sich der BKX im Downtrend immer schwer getan nachhaltig über die 100GD zu springen aber falls doch winken oben Ziele bei 75-80 (ca.10%Plus also) und ob der Gesamtmarkt dann fällt ist eher unwahrscheinlich.
Also Augen auf gilt auch für die Bärchen im Börsenwald.

auch wenn der Trend eindeutig stgnierend oder abwärts gerichtet ist.
man sehe sich Zeiss an oder Demag,Singulus,auch Pfleiderer und Hochtief will hoch und gar der Vietnam-basket
Ich bin noch Sideline,aber irgendwann werde ich im Hinblick auf die Steuersituation auch wieder zugreifen

Barclays 'needs £7.5bn' to shore up finances
4 September 2008, 8:08am

Banking giant Barclays may need to raise another £7.5bn to shore up its tattered balance sheet, research warns.

www.thisismoney.co.uk/...n_article_id=451566&in_page_id=3&ct=5

School districts in Pennsylvania were also unaware of the fees they were charged on derivative deals, according to a February article by Bloomberg Markets, and the advisers they hired never told them.

The derivatives were typically paired with debt, such as auction-rate securities, whose interest rates fluctuate weekly or monthly. Under the swap, the borrower would pay a fixed rate and received a rate that varied, which was supposed to match the floating rate on its bonds.

Strategy Backfires

The strategy worked as long as top-rated insurers agreed to guarantee the bonds against default and banks acted as buyers of last resort for investors who wanted to sell when rates were reset....
JPMorgan is now leading the negotiations to prevent the county from filing the biggest municipal bankruptcy since Orange County, California's in 1994. It is among the banks that are holding Jefferson County bonds under an agreement to act as buyers of last resort, and may suffer losses in the event of default.

Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Merrill Lynch & Co.'s talks to sell a ``significant'' amount of bad loans to Korea Asset Management Corp. are faltering because of a dispute over price, the Korean firm's chief executive officer said.

``We have yet to reach an agreement because of differences in assessing the value of assets,'' Lee Chol Hwi said yesterday in an interview in Seoul. ``We have been seeking to buy a significant amount, but a deal may be difficult at this rate.''

Failure to strike a deal may indicate Merrill, the third- largest U.S. securities firm, and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. might have to cut prices for assets they're trying to sell as mortgage-related losses widen. Lee, 55, said state-run Korea Asset can afford to be patient because the U.S. financial crisis will probably push prices lower.......
www.bloomberg.com/apps/...d=20601103&sid=a0QemFmcMrdA&refer=us

Hab'ich gestern im Radio gehört und heute gelesen. Goodyear beschäftigt 3 300 Mitarbeiter in Luxemburg. Intressant scheint mir aber die Meldung deswegen, weil wir es hier nicht mit einem lokalen Phänomen zu tun haben. Luxemburg ist nämlich für goodyear das grösste und bedeutendste Forschungszentrum für Europa und Asien.

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Goodyear verringert Reifenproduktion (...)                          (...)                        
           

(...) Der Reifenhersteller Goodyear wird die Produktion von Lastwagen-Reifen  in Colmar -Berg [Casaubon: das ist in Luxemburg] bis zum Ende des Jahres deutlich verringern. Aufgrund des stark rückläufigen  Lastwagen-Reifenmarkts in Europa entstanden niedrigere Verkaufszahlen als erwartet  und die allgemeinen Lagerbestände an Lastwagenreifen stiegen kontinuierlich an, heißt  es in einer Pressemitteilung des Unternehmens.

Um die entstandenen Überkapazitäten des gesamten Markts auszugleichen, verringere  Goodyear europaweit die Lastwagenreifen-Produktion. Alle Produktionszentren für Lastwagenreifen, (...) würden individuellen Maßnahmen ergreifen,  heißt es weiter. In Colmar-Berg wird Goodyear Luxemburg die Produktion ab dem 7.  September auf sechs Tage pro Woche begrenzen und die Betriebspause zu Weihnachten  auf insgesamt zehn Tage ausweiten.

Betroffen sei nur die Lastwagenreifen-Produktion, alle weiteren Aktivitäten, wie  die Produktion von Erdbewegungsreifen, sollen regulär weiterlaufen.

(...)

Die Mitarbeiter seien angehalten, ihren Resturlaub  an den produktionsfreien Tagen in Anspruch zu nehmen bevor Kurzarbeit in Kraft treten  könne, schreibt das Unternehmen.   (...)

           

(Quelle: www.wort.lu)

 

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1. Nun könnte man natürlich auch argumentieren, dass Goodyear sich lediglich schlecht am Markt positioniert habe, andere Firmen keine Rückgänge zu verzeichnen hätten. (Das weiss ich nicht und weiss auch nicht, wie ich es überprüfen könnte)

 

 

2. Mir scheint es aber eher so zu sein, dass wir es tatsächlich mit einer grösseren Krise in diesem Sektor zu tun haben.

Und daraus schliese ich, dass halt weniger Bedarf an LKW-Reifen besteht. Bei LKW-Reifen handelt es sich aber nicht um einen Luxusartikel, sondern um ganz gewöhnliches Verschleissmaterial.

Daraus kann ich nur schlussfolgern (wenn 1. NICHT zutrifft), dass weniger transportiert wird. (Eventuell findet sich hier ein wawidu ;-) an Bord, der das mit einem Chart irgendwo belegen könnte? Wäre sehr nett)

Was wir nun daraus wieder schlussfolgern können ist ja ganz klar: alles bestens im "meilleur des mondes possibles"

 

 

The decline in Florida home values also presents a large risk to the rating of Regions Financial Corp. (RF, Fortune 500) Last week it acquired $974 million in deposits from Integrity Bank, which failed and was taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.S&P affirmed its current rating of A+ for Regions, but cautioned that the bank doesn't have much of a cushion against further losses.

Integrity Bank was the 10th regional bank to fail this year, and there has been growing concern for the health of the regional banking system, as well as the funding available to the FDIC to insure customers' savings.

The rating agency also warned of potential downgrades at Citizens Republic Bancorp Inc. (CRBC), Comerica Inc. (CMA), Synovus Financial Corp. (SNV), Wilmington Trust Corp. (WL), Zions Bancorp. (ZION), and Colonial BancGroup Inc.
money.cnn.com/2008/09/03/news/companies/bank_ratings/index.htm