http://www.ariva.de/board/233083
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Financial Obligations Trouble Obligations being at a 26-year high is more worrisome than the savings rate |
Source: Department of Commerce |
Household Debt New spending habits need to be considered |
Source: Department of Commerce |
Liabilities Need Balance Household assets put the debt in perspective |
Source: Department of Commerce |
Cody Willard Blog
Which Way the Gangs Are Leaning
By Cody Willard
7/11/2006 9:40 AM EDT
As we enter the second quarter's earnings season, tensions in the market are escalating. I often highlight the fallacies of pigeonholing. Whether it's of people, market caps or sectors, pigeonholing blinds us to opportunities and is a lazy way to make sense of complex systems. That said, not all pigeonholing is wrong; we can usefully define groups based on their decisions. Permabears, bears, bulls, permabulls, daytraders and momentum chasers are made and not born, we market participants are prime for some pigeonholing. It helps us get into the heads of market participants, which is indeed important. So anyway, here's how I'd break down the market participants:
The permabears are finally growling and shorting this market. "The end of the bull market is already upon us," they say.
The bears, the non-perma kind who are willing to be flexible -- you didn't think all bears are stuck in the "day of doom is coming so don't be long anything!" line of thinking, did you? -- have scaled out of anything but their most coveted longs and are actively shorting this market, especially tech stocks.
The bulls are scared, and have been selling technology hard because "stocks don't lie." Because tech is bumbling along at new lows, the bulls are convincing themselves that The Wall Street Journal and other mainstream media outlets are right that we should avoid "risky" assets and focus on "safety." How cyclicals like energy and other commodity companies get included in that group is beyond me, but I digress.
The permabulls are fully invested, having deployed all their cash in the first leg down at some point in May. Now they can only buy more by selling another position. Many are indeed scaling out of tech and into "safer" areas.
Daytraders are frustrated by the market's recent randomness, which has indeed seemed more random than just the normal randomness associated with any near-term market. Frustrated is the operative word there.
Momentum chasers have been crushed this year and they are flailing. But they remain convinced that this downturn is only a temporary setback for their stocks and that the fundamentals out there are strong and poised to continue booming.
It's a tough setup from which to decipher much in the way of meaningful market conclusions. I tend to think the bears are pressing things right now and that the bulls are overly fearful, which is why I've put on my small Nasdaq 100 Unit Trust (QQQQ) trade. But as the small relative size of the position belies, I have little faith in that analysis, in large part because the crosscurrents and positioning from my stereotyped market participants isn't exactly screaming "a capitulation is in and the bears are leaning the wrong way at the wrong time."
The upshot: It's been a tough, tough market to trade successfully for the last two months, and that's still how I see it. So I remain of the mindset that it's better to tread lightly if at all than to make big bets and go for the gusto at this juncture.
At the time of publication, the firm in which Willard is a partner was net long QQQQ, although positions can change at any time and without notice.
Cody Willard is the manager of a hedge fund
...kommt, wenn die 50-Tage-Linie die 200-Tage-Linie nach unten durchkreuzt. Beim Nasdaq ist das schon geschehen.
Technical AnalysisTechnical Analysis
A Damaging Mindset Reinforced
By Alan Farley
7/17/2006 11:31 AM EDT
It's hard to find nice things to say about the market after last week's selloff added to the substantial technical damage done in the first quarter. Ominously, the major indices closed at their lows for the second week in a row. This isn't what you want to see if you're hoping that a sharp recovery is just around the corner.
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Wertung | Antworten | Thema | Verfasser | letzter Verfasser | letzter Beitrag | |
57 | 19.115 | BP Group | B.Helios | Xodus | 12.04.24 15:36 | |
43 | BP im Wandel | Tom1313 | Tom1313 | 02.08.22 08:44 | ||
80 | 3.606 | von nun an gings bergauf | 123p | 123p | 05.12.21 09:12 | |
5 | 170 | BP on the long run 850517 | Blackadder | Blackadder | 25.04.21 13:27 | |
2 | 143 | Ist BP unterbewertet? | Salim R. | HSO50 | 25.04.21 03:50 |