Könnte also eine Kapitalerhöhung zur Beschleunigung des Wachstums bevorstehen. Möglicherweise gab es deshalb die Kursturbulenzen nächste Woche.
Feedback management meeting: Plans for acceleration; BUY.
Presentation at Equity Forum. cyan AG’s presentation at the Equity Forum in Frankfurt last week highlighted a company that is clearly on track and well positioned for continued growth. CEO Markus Cserna presented a confident update, showing that cyan’s business model is now sustainably profitable, with positive EBITDA and cash flow, while maintaining strong momentum through expanding partnerships.
Expanding footprint across telecom partners: The company’s recurring revenue base remains robust, driven by long-term cooperation with major telecom operators, namely Orange and Deutsche Telekom. Recent launches in Moldova and Réunion/Mayotte (both Orange Group) demonstrate the ongoing rollout of cyan’s cybersecurity platform within the Orange Group. Each new market introduction follows a structured ramp-up process, with subscriber numbers increasing steadily over subsequent quarters, supporting visibility and predictability of growth.
Growth scenarios: Cserna outlined a clear path of continued organic growth and profitability, while also introducing the idea of accelerating this trajectory through targeted investments. CEO Markus Cserna described a solid base-case scenario in which the company grows sustainably from its existing resources, supported by recurring revenues and positive cash flow. In addition, management is evaluating an expansion scenario that could be financed through a capital increase, aimed at scaling faster, as a strategic growth lever. Additional capital would enable cyan to expand its product reach (notably with cyan Guard for SMEs), strengthen go-to-market capabilities, and accelerate rollouts with telecom partners.
Upside from Acceleration scenario: An acceleration phase would mark a strategic shift from stabilization to scaling. In financial terms, it could lift the company’s revenue trajectory above our current projected base case from 2026 onwards, driven by faster international rollouts and an earlier contribution from cyan Guard. Near term, higher investment in sales and market development would keep EBITDA margins flat in 2025-2026, but this would lay the groundwork for stronger operating leverage from 2027 onwards. Such a step would not alter cyan’s financial stability, as the company would remain EBITDA- and cash-flow-positive, but it would act as a multiplier, pulling forward the growth curve. Over the medium term, the result would be a larger recurring revenue base, higher free-cash-flow generation and a business mix featuring an accelerated ramp-up of the SME segment.
Conclusion: The presentation and our meeting with the management confirmed cyan’s strong operational momentum and strategic focus. The company continues to deliver on its core Telco business while laying the groundwork for future expansion through cyan Guard. The potential acceleration scenario offers meaningful upside as a strategic lever, yet our current forecasts and valuation remain based on the base-case assumption of organic growth and self-funded execution. With recurring revenues, improving profitability and high visibility from defined rollouts, cyan remains well positioned for sustainable value creation. We maintain our base-case estimates and confirm our PT at EUR 4.00. BUY.
research-hub.de/companies/cyan-ag
