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Quelle: heraldsun.com.au
URANIUM STOCKS TAKE A DIVE
January 10, 2008 03:33pm
THE uranium bubble appears to have burst, with Australia's uranium stocks now 55 per cent weaker on average than all-time highs hit in April-May last year.
The strongest-performing Australian uranium companies during this period are all operating in the African nation of Namibia, home to the huge, partially Rio Tinto-owned Rossing mine.
This was the upshot of research by Perth's oldest brokerage house DJ Carmichael, which focused on 26 key uranium stocks including Rio subsidiary Energy Resources of Australia Ltd, Paladin Resources NL, Summit Resources Ltd, Deep Yellow Ltd, Alliance Resources Ltd, Bannerman Resources Ltd and A-Cap Resources Ltd.
DJ Carmichael head of research Paul Adams said the broker remained bullish on uranium stocks, but the wheat had certainly been separated from the chaff.
"The heat has come out of the uranium market in Australia in general - particularly so in Western Australia - and investor interest really now has to be focused on the quality companies that have good quality projects in uranium-friendly jurisdictions," Mr Adams said.
He said West Australian Metals Ltd, Extract Resources Ltd and Bannerman were the Australian uranium sector's top three performers, all exploring in Namibia.
"Bannerman are 17 per cent off their all time high ... which was reached in December," he said.
"Those companies that have done the best certainly have projects with the potential for large resources.
"These are bulk tonnage, significantly sized operations - many millions of tonnes - at a low grade but the economies of scale means these projects do very well."
This week, New York-headquartered broking house Wall Street Access said in a report that uranium shares had generally trailed oil shares' performance worldwide in 2007, singling out Bannerman as being a rare exception.
Bannerman was the best performing company on the Australian stock exchange in 2006/07 and aside from a share price dip in late August last year, its stellar run continues.
Mr Adams said DJ Carmichael also favoured Botswana-focused uranium companies such as A-Cap Resources Ltd and Impact Resources Ltd.
"Australian investors tend to shy away from Africa but that is certainly not true for Namibia and Botswana ... which are extremely stable, pro-mining countries," he said.
"In fact, in a recent sovereign risk survey, Botswana rated better than Australia.
"I note that Zambia has enacted legislation to develop their own uranium industry."
He said the US was also favourable for uranium mining, with firms active here including Uranium King Ltd, which is currently mid-merger with Monaro Mining NL, Black Range Minerals Ltd and Wildhorse Energy Ltd.
Wall Street Access said the sharp price downturn in uranium stocks mid-2007 "caused investors to reassess the fundamental (good) and speculative (bad) forces that had driven spot prices from $US7 per pound in 2000 to $US135 in 2007".
"After the white hot price gains of most uranium shares in 2006, investors came to the belated realisation that most of these companies are speculative ventures which lack the ingredients needed for success in uranium mining: quality resources, access to capital and executive depth," the broker said in its report this week.
"The majority of listed uranium shares are little more than stock promotion schemes ... and will always be so."
Uranium is currently trading at about $US90 ($A102.16) per pound and Mr Adams said the commodity would trade north of $US100 per pound this year.
"I don't see a fundamental change in the rise in demand," he said.
"In fact, with the problems that hit the Canadian mines (which supply about 25 per cent of the world's uranium) last year, we see continued problems in supplying uranium, which will be supportive for the uranium price throughout 2008.
"Short-term, it looks to be stabilising around $US95-96 per pound.
"Price movements lately have been affected by some dumping of uranium by the US government on to the market and on the other side of the coin, some fund buying and selling."
Mr Adams said there was a window of opportunity that uranium explorers were scrambling to get inside: those that looked set to get mines up and running by 2012/13 could lock in strong prices on long term contracts.
"The window of opportunity closes about 2013 when we'll see supply from (BHP Billiton Ltd's) Olympic Dam (expansion) starting to hit the market.
"Problems with Canadian uranium mines will start to be rectified by then and we'll see some increase in the supply of uranium that will affect the price."
He said Australia's initial public offer market would remain reasonably active for most sectors this year, but not so much for uranium companies.
Uranium-focused listings on the Australian stock exchange in December included Krucible Metals Ltd, Monax Mining Ltd spin-off Marmota Energy Ltd, Rum Jungle Uranium Ltd, Top End Uranium Ltd and West Wits Mining Ltd.
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