Banken & Finanzen in unserer Weltzone

Goldman Sachs: Why the global housing market has further to slide
www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/...-further-to-slide.html

Der nächste Dominostein: Stehen Gewerbeimmobilien vor einem größeren Crash als zur Finanzkrise 2008? Mehr als ein Jahrzehnt nach dem Zusammenbruch des US-Hypothekenmarktes prognostizieren Analysten erneut eine finanzielle Katastrophe auf dem gewerblichen Immobilienmarkt. Wird es schlimmer als 2008?
https://www.ariva.de/news/...hen-gewerbeimmobilien-vor-einem-10622770

Federal agency asks BlackRock to help sell collapsed bank securities

BlackRock's advisory unit has been tasked by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. with selling the approximately $114 billion in holdings related to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.

www.pionline.com/money-management/...ollapsed-bank-securities

'Degenerate Gambling' in Zero-Day Options Thrills Retail Traders. Speculative options are exploding, opening more everyday investors to a side of trading some compare to gambling.
Zero-day options and the shadow of the apocalypse
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...zero-day-options#xj4y7vzkg
www.risk.net/investing/7956447/...he-shadow-of-the-apocalypse
Gamma Mama! Could 0DTE Options Be The Cause Of The Next Market Meltdown
www.forbes.com/sites/vineerbhansali/2023/...-market-meltdown/

The job of a financial regulator can often feel like fixing a leaky boat: just when you’ve plugged one hole, the water starts gushing in from somewhere else. US banks are using held-to-maturity bonds to underpin liquidity adequacy, grating against accounting guidance. What happens if they’re forced to sell?
www.risk.net/our-take/7956463/...f-us-banks-liquidity-buffers
US banks vulnerable to losses if held-to-maturity (HTM) securities need to be sold: Overall mark-to-market value $300bn lower than amortised cost across 30 banks. Global systemically important banks, or G-Sibs, were the most vulnerable, bearing $236 billion of the total and recording a devaluation of 13%.
www.risk.net/risk-quantum/7956331/...curities-need-to-be-sold

Fed’s Balance Sheet Plunges by $101 Billion in Two Weeks, as QT Continues and Bank Liquidity Support Begins to Unwind
wolfstreet.com/2023/04/06/...uidity-support-begins-to-unwind/

Commercial real estate is headed for a crisis worse than 2008, Morgan Stanley analysts say: With small- and medium-size banks accounting for 80% of commercial real estate lending, the situation might soon get worse, says experts. Commercial property prices could fall as much as 40% “rivaling the decline during the 2008 financial crisis,” forecast Morgan Stanley analysts.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/...estate-headed-crisis-215416495.html
Horror-Studie der Citigroup löst Panik aus. Immo-Aktien könnten demnach um weitere 50% fallen. Es drohe eine Instabilität der Branche.
https://www.ariva.de/news/...via-co-citistudie-lst-panik-aus-10607960
Commercial real estate could be where the next economic shock comes from. Here's what Elon Musk, Bill Ackman, and 5 others have predicted.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/...erest-rates-2023-3
Anxities Increasing Over Commercial Real Estate Issues. Will commercial real estate cause more bank failures?
https://www.redlandsdailyfacts.com/2023/04/08/...-more-bank-failures/
U.S. commercial real estate investment volume fell by 63%. Small banks have larger real estate exposure
https://www.cbre.com/insights/briefs/...e-larger-real-estate-exposure

Die US-Immobiliennachfrage leidet massiv unter Zinsanstiegen. Turbulenzen im Bankensektor erhöhen nun den Druck - eine gefährliche Mischung für den gesamten Finanzmarkt.
www.boersen-zeitung.de/banken-finanzen/...rtikel-usimmobilien

A $1.5 Trillion Wall of Debt is Looming for US Commercial Properties
   Morgan Stanley sees refinancing risks front and center
   Office, retail property valuations could fall as much as 40%
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...r-us-commercial-properties

The credit crunch has started
apolloacademy.com/the-credit-crunch-has-started/
www.marketwatch.com/story/...cession-economist-warns-3e9582e9
markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/...erest-rates-2023-4
Credit Crunch Arrives: Bank Lending Crashes By Most On Record In Last Two Weeks Of March
www.zerohedge.com/markets/...most-record-last-two-weeks-march
Stocks Are Out, Cash Is In as a Credit Crunch Draws Near
www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/...t-crunch-recession-risk

Echoes Of New Century's Collapse Amid Sudden Firesale Of Real Estate Loans As One Bank Sees 40% Downside - "This is what the beginning of a firesale looks like." - Margin Call
www.zerohedge.com/markets/...al-estate-loans-one-bank-sees-40

Be first, be smarter or cheat
pbs.twimg.com/media/...4kXwAIb-Vg?format=jpg&name=900x900

"Ich fürchte, wir steuern auf ein weiteres Zugunglück zu"

If the threat of a banking crisis forces central banks to back off rate hikes and resume Quantitative Easing, it may provide more structural tailwinds again for global commodity prices as the dust settles, as we saw from the policy response to the Covid demand shock in 2020.
timera-energy.com/banking-crisis-threat-to-energy-markets/

Demolish office buildings because demand isn't coming back, hedge fund manager says
markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/...ion-housing-2023-4

Markets are growing nervous over the prospect of a US default as debt ceiling deadline looms
markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/...age-deadline-2023-4

Rental Market Tracker: U.S. Rents Post First Annual Decline in Three Years
https://www.redfin.com/news/wp-content/uploads/...l-yy-rent-chart.png
https://www.redfin.com/news/redfin-rental-report-march-2023/

Commercial Real Estate Is The "Boa Constrictor" That Will Crush The Economy And "Force The Fed To Restart QE"
www.zerohedge.com/markets/...-and-force-fed-panic-and-restart

>https://www.ariva.de/forum/...er-weltzone-517296?page=124#jumppos3116
>https://www.ariva.de/forum/...er-weltzone-517296?page=125#jumppos3126

Comments of the Antitrust Division on the Commission’s four proposed SEC rules
https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-29-22/s72922-20164065-334011.pdf

Payment for Order Flow: BaFin untersucht Qualität der Ausführung von Wertpapieraufträgen an deutschen Handelsplätzen
https://www.bafin.de/SharedDocs/...eldung_2022_05_16_PFOF_Studie.html

Retail investors are sitting on big losses in their stock portfolios even as the market rallies in 2023
t.co/s6xk7VXQxZ

Inflationsbericht zwingt Fed, sich weiterhin auf Inflation zu konzentrieren:  Kerninflation steigt im März von 5,5 auf 5,6%. Die Kerngüterpreise haben sich im März wieder etwas verstärkt, während die Preise für Wohnimmobilien leicht zurückgingen. Besorgniserregender ist, dass Dienstleistungen (ohne Wohnimmobilien) die hartnäckigste Inflationskomponente blieben.
www.bondguide.de/experten/...-auf-inflation-zu-konzentrieren/

OECD Housing Prices
data.oecd.org/price/housing-prices.htm
Goldman Sachs Housing Market Forecast
www.noradarealestate.com/blog/...chs-housing-market-forecast/

"It's Going To Be Ugly": Commercial Real Estate Predictions Turn Dire
www.zerohedge.com/economics/...l-estate-predictions-turn-dire

What Would Happen if the Fed Caves to 4%-5% Core PCE Inflation, Gives up on 2%, as some Folks are Clamoring For? The economy would muddle through, but in the markets, all heck would break loose.
wolfstreet.com/2023/04/16/...as-some-folks-are-clamoring-for/