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Ausblick Scavenger


von Gene Inger ( für nächste Woche:

...As recently noted, in my 30 years of trading, there's never been quite the exact parallel to what we've seen; though we're proud to have analyzed it as closely as we have, for all these nuances. In the over 40 years that I've been an investor (including my nursery school days, almost), there is one time that approximates an attitude so predominant in recent markets: the "nifty 50" stocks of the late 1960's, that collapsed considerably preceding the Energy Crisis induced inflation after OPEC squeezed the world after the 1973 Yom Kippur War commenced. The arrogance borne of previous success was as palpable in managers of that genre as has so recently been the case. Few survived the ensuing carnage; and those that did often were so shellshocked that to this day they never recovered their enthusiasm for new technology or forward thinking developments...
...Technically . . . we knew this would be a complex Expiration week, and said so last week. That was because of the intervening economic numbers and a Greenspan Capitol Hill testimony. The idea was a market that would bottom at the week's beginning, run-up, pause in-front of the Fed head's remarks, try to rally thereafter, and if successful, great; if not prepare for the assault on a target we've spoken of all year; a gaping unfilled March S&P gap in the 1340's down into the 30's or so. And if (as) that happens, the tinges of panic at least have a chance to take it down all the way into the high 1200's, as may be determined as time marches on...
...We recently noted rallies had been just extremely unsustainable at a time of year liquidity is not readily available without selling one stock to buy another; not a plus. Combined with widened spreads for a couple weeks, it seems like buyers in fact were hard to find, hence prices sometimes went up, but there wasn't any liquidity, contrary to conventional thinking. Inverted Yield Curve and no new money make it hard to save the market, right where it needed an heroic such effort. So, while we wish we didn't have to (because it's off a 3-peaks and a dome; one of the most negative patterns), we moved right back to the short-side and caught the entire Friday decline. The new week will likely feature a failing rebound, and then a really nervous ride to the downside, which will likely continue in the stairstep variety as seen so far this year, which is volatile, but works lower....


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