arrowhead läuft - zu recht

Holden YMB:
@Pablo,
You wrote:
Not that this is news to anyone but I bought NVCR and watched it go from 95 down to 73 for absolutely no reason. Look at it today. Point is that we’ll move when the big boys are ready but this WILL move and be a takeover target soon.

I have posted extensively on the matter of ARWR becoming a takeover target. It's true...any publicly traded company can become a takeover target. In the case of ARWR it is simply that the company will not be taken over. I am not going to go into great detail here because I have done so many times in the past. It is simply that ARWR's board will not accept a price that another board would be willing to offer. Every day ARWR doses more patients and progresses toward and through the clinic with additional indications, what I call the "Value Gap," widens. Would a BP BOD offer $50Bn today? Not likely. Does ARWR's BOD think that what it has is worth more than $50Bn? Likely.

What would 20 indications in the clinic in 2 years be worth? CELG, which had 10 commercial indications, was acquired by BMY for $75Bn. BMY was able to sell the acquisition to its shareholders by telling them the acquisition would be accretive in the first full year of combined operations. There is no way any BP can say the same of ARWR so there is no way a BOD could justify such an acquisition price. NOT GUNNA HAPPEN!!! I have had this discussion with management relative to the MDCO acquisition. That was $10Bn for one orphan indication about to be commercial and perhaps 2-3 more possibly entering the clinic next year. And MDCO doesn't own the delivery platform. So the upper bound is what has been licensed. ARWR has no upper bound. It can go after hundreds of diseases.