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for Guinea's mines? Tue Nov 16, 2010 5:13pm GMT
DAKAR Nov 16 (Reuters) - Reforming Guinea's mining industry will be high on the to-do list for president-elect Alpha Conde, who will need revenues from the resource sector to develop the impoverished West African state.
Guinea is the world's largest exporter of the aluminium ore bauxite -- with about a third of the world's known reserves -- and also holds vast iron ore riches that have attracted billions of dollars in planned investments from companies such as Vale and Rio Tinto.
Guinea's election commission this week named veteran opposition leader Conde the winner of the Nov. 7 election with 52.5 percent of the vote.
Here are some questions and answers about what a Conde presidency means for Guinea's mining sector:
WHAT DOES THE ELECTION MEAN FOR INVESTMENT?
If Guinea completes the transition to civilian rule and relative stability following years of chaos, it will open the door to new foreign investment aimed at speeding development of its mineral resources.
But competition for Guinea's huge iron ore deposits will also pave the way for the government to rewrite the mining code and review contracts to improve the state's share of revenues, which could be good for Guinea but potentially tough on miners.
"I would expect him to pit big mining interests from rival countries like France, China, the United States and Russia against each other," said Lydie Boka, an analyst at Strategico.
Conde, like his defeated rival Cellou Dalein Diallo, has said he will review a slew of contracts signed during junta rule by firms such as Brazil's Vale, Australia's Rio Tinto and Aluminum Corp of China to ensure they are fair to the state.
Analysts are mixed on whether Conde will be tougher in the review than Diallo would have been.
On the one hand, Conde is keen to boost the state take from miners, many of whom anticipated a Diallo win. But on the other, he is perceived as closer to Energy Minister Mahmoud Thiam, whose signature is on many of the deals.
Analysts said small resource companies are more at risk from the review than the larger ones, whose contribution to state revenue is higher.
HOW WILL CONDE'S GOVT RESOLVE THE SIMANDOU DISPUTE?
There are a few major disputes in Guinea's mining sector that Conde's government will need to resolve. Perhaps the biggest involves Rio's Simandou iron ore concession, billed as the world's largest undeveloped deposit.
In the final days of President Lansana Conte's rule in 2008, Guinea said Rio was too slow to develop Simandou, stripped off two of its four Simandou blocks and gave them to BSGR, which is controlled by Israeli billionaire diamond trader Beny Steinmetz.
In April 2010, BSGR signed a deal with Vale, the world's biggest miner, to explore the blocks, lending its project some heft, even though Rio claimed it still has rights to them.
Energy Minister Thiam said earlier this year that Rio has until February 2011 to formally give up the two blocks or risk losing the rest of its Simandou concession.
Industry insiders have said Conde has appeared closer than Diallo to Thiam's line on this dispute, meaning that pressure will remain on Rio to surrender the blocks if it wants to develop any part of Simandou.
WHAT ABOUT FRIGUIA?
The other major dispute is over RUSAL's Friguia alumina refinery, which a Guinean court last year ruled was purchased by the Russian company unlawfully. Guinea has also said RUSAL owes $860 million in back taxes.
The Friguia refinery is backed by French investors, and Conde is personally close to former French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner -- circumstances some analysts suggest could lead Conde to be less harsh on RUSAL than Diallo might have been.
However Chris Melville of Menas Associates said Thiam's influence could come to the fore here too.
"There is a consensus ... among both the candidates and within the transitional government to accept the approach that has been taken by Energy Minister Mahmoud Thiam, and it would be politically difficult for Conde to break with that," he said.
AND THE MINING CODE?
Analysts have said Guinea's mining code has not been updated since the 1990s, leaving the country ill-equipped to negotiate appropriately with foreign mining companies seeking to exploit its resources.
It is possible that Guinea's review of contracts will have to wait until the mining code is updated.
While Conde is likely to try to update the mining framework, there are some fears that his inexperience in government -- he has been an opposition politician since the late 1950s -- could lead to a protracted period of policy confusion.
"The more immediate problem is the lack of policy direction, of not knowing what the policy framework is," said Sebastian Spio-Garbrah of DaMina Advisors.
(Editing by Jane Baird)
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