AMARIN CORP. PLC REG.SHS(SP.ADRS NEW)/1 LS-,50 (WK

möglicherweise "News pending"

pendelt sich gerade wieder ein zwischen 4,65 und 4,70

kleiner Spaß

oder die Instis haben festgestellt das die Bude trotz Urteil locker einen Kurs von 8$ verdient hat

www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/01/is-amarin-stock-a-buy.aspx

Is Amarin's stock cheap?

After yesterday's bloodbath, Amarin's market cap now stands at $1.44 billion. Amarin is therefore trading at just a little over two times its last stated cash position. Under normal circumstances, commercial-stage biopharmas trade at no less than three times cash on hand. So, from this point of view, Amarin's stock is definitely in bargain territory.

What's next?
The big unknown -- and arguably the main reason Amarin's stock plunged yesterday -- is Vascepa's commercial opportunity in 2021 and beyond. The bad news is that these patent decisions are rarely overturned on appeal -- a point echoed by multiple analysts yesterday in the wake of this unexpected ruling. So generics in the all-important U.S. market are probably going to come into play by the summer of 2021.

There is a silver lining, however. This patent ruling doesn't impact the drug's international IP, and there is no generic litigation pending outside the United States. So once Amarin gains widespread approval for Vascepa outside of the U.S., the drug should still be able to generate a decent amount of sales overall. What's more, Vascepa won't lose all of its U.S. market share to generics.

What this all boils down to that Vascepa is likely going to end up as a fringe blockbuster ($1 billion in annual sales) after this devastating blow to its IP in the United States. Stated bluntly, Vascepa's megablockbuster aspirations are probably out the window, and so too are Amarin's prospects as a buyout candidate. That's the new reality, barring a miracle on the legal front.

The good news is that Amarin's shares are undeniably undervalued on the heels of this emotionally charged downturn. In short, this biopharma should eventually rebound to the $8 range (about three times peak sales), which is roughly double from where it closed Tuesday. Driving this point home, Amarin's shares are now trading as if Vascepa won't perform well internationally and it will eventually lose around 90% of its U.S. market share. Neither of those dire outcomes is likely for a long list of reasons.  

siehe Link

seekingalpha.com/news/...arin-jumps-18-on-possible-patent-win

Gibt nun bald noch viel mehr Anwälte, die geschädigte Anleger vertreten wollen. Ich rechne heute oder morgen mit den ersten eingehenden lawsuits....

sind phänomenal - 75 Mio ingesamt - davon 25 Mio die letzten 15 Minuten  

finance.yahoo.com/news/...or-notice-schall-law-161500037.html

Damit die Geschädigten dem guten Geld noch mehr schlechtes für den Anwalt hinterherwerfen....

thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=3064922

für den weiteren Verlauf. Mal schauen ob es gelingt

dass in den letzten 2 Minuten noch einige Shorties schnell covern wollen.....

Unter anderen Umständen wäre ich auch dabei gewesen. Doch das war eine Glanzleistung!

4,50 geblieben . Denke die läuft die Tage weiter hoch  

ob die Corona-Panik wieder voll durchschlägt. Davon würde auch AMRN beeindruckt werden und der Druck aus dem Kessel der Shorties genommen und Fonds müssten raus, wenn Anleger ihre Kohle dort abziehen..

AIrlines und Cruiseships heute schon wieder voll am Abschmieren. CCL sogar bereits wieder in der Nähe der Tiefstkurse....

centurylink.cwebcast.com/ses/...1-3637-4d41-96f5-bf0fc7bf0379

District Court decisions he's witnessed and there is a 50% chance of overturning it in AMRN's favor (much higher than traditional appeals). Our expert believes Judge Du made a "clearly erroneous" methodology of assessment on determining obviousness. Many of the Federal Appeal Circuit judges are big "sticklers" for correct procedure and because AMRN already was supposed to have a good chance when looking at obviousness regardless (hence why we thought good chance of winning originally), this should give AMRN a decent shot for an appeal. Our PT moves to $6 to now include even a modest chance of appeal win in 2021 plus modest US and conservative EU sales.

The Judge may have made a "major procedural error" as she shifted the burden of proof on AMRN when looking at Secondary considerations for obviousness. Primary considerations refer to 'prior art' like old patents and scientific literature, whereas Secondary considerations are more objective measures (e.g. unexpected benefit, long felt need, commercial success, skepticism, praise). Our expert believes Judge Du should have placed the burden of proof entirely on the generics (defendants) when assessing primary and secondary considerations. He said there are many examples of this and the Supreme Court has clearly recommended that method to District courts. He provided a couple of famous cases in which the Judges had applied the wrong burden-shifting framework, which the Federal appellate court later viewed to be not permissible.

Our patent expert thinks AMRN has a good chance of winning appeal due to a
combination of: (1) This was Judge Du's first patent bench trial and there appears to be a major procedural error, (2) the Federal Circuit of Appeals favors the patent holder (e.g. AMRN) 64% of the time (although only reverses invalidity/validity cases 18% of the time), (3) there are 12 active judges on the Federal Circuit and at least half are pro-procedural or pro-patentee, (4) obviousness issue will likely be reassessed and may come to the original held view the patent is novel. However, the expert noted it does partially depend on which 3 judges are assigned to the panel.

Timelines: AMRN will appeal and file an injunction to prevent generics from launching at-risk within weeks. He sees an 80% chance AMRN secures an injunction by early May, although a final appeal decision is a year out in April/May 2021. He is doubtful generics will launch at-risk until the appeal decision, but our discussions with generic companies suggest they would like to launch. Hikma appears confident with its manufacturing and has been stockpiling raw material.



Investment Thesis / Where We Differ

   We maintain HOLD and believe the stock will be range-bound until there is more clarity on an appeal and scenarios where generics may not immediately hit.

   For value folks, we see long-term value due to appeal decision later, no Gx immediate launch, manufacturing challenges, - and AMRN isn't really burning cash anymore, but the Street will not likely care in the near/medium term.

   While generics should be expected to come, the stock mostly reflects this now. We do think generics will face challenges in reality - which creates upside value for longer-term non-consensus investors, but the Street won't likely care for now.

   In the meantime, AMRN will (1) seek an injunction (2+ wks for ruling) and appeal the case (average 9+ months for decision), (2) continue to execute on commercial sales this year (will likely cut DTC and some expenses) in US, and (3) continue to interrogate EU where it is up for approval YE:20 and does not currently face any patent issues and should have 10 years exclusivity due to CVOT label, not the initial US trig label.


Scenarios
Base Case

   Our base case of $6/share is based on a DCF analysis that considers a 15-20% chance AMRN wins its appeal in 2021.
   In this scenario, we assume US and EU Vascepa sales both extend out to at least 2030.
   We consider peak sales of $3-4B on a 4x multiple (probability adjusted).

Upside Scenario

   Our upside scenario of $10/share considers a higher 30% chance AMRN wins its appeal in 2021.
   In this scenario, we consider peak sales of $3-4B on a 4x multiple (probability adjusted).

Downside Scenario

   Our downside scenario of $2/share assumes AMRN loses its appeal, implying generic entry as early as 2021.
   In this scenario, we assume USA sales into YE:20/early 2021 and no revenues thereafter. We do not consider EU sales as well.
   However, we do consider net cash of ~1/share.


Catalysts

   2020: Quarterly results and sales growth of Vascepa
   Mid:20: File an appeal and seek injunction ruling
   Q4:20: EU approval of Vascepa
   Mid:21: Potential appeal decision on the HIkma/Reddy's cases

$5,33.
Richterin: indische Wurzeln....?
Kläger: indische Firma.....
Zufälle gibt`s....