Aixtron purpose of this thread

28.3. Berenberg Roadshow Frankfurt
29.3 Berenberg Roadshow London
30.3 Deutsche Bank Roadshow Paris

Gruß
baggo-mh

Wolfspeed (WOLF): For Wolfspeed, Malik said that while he's still "positive" on the growth of the silicon carbide market and its move into electric vehicles, there is concern that other vehicle makers may follow Tesla's (TSLA) decision to offer low-cost models and use insulated gate bipolar transistor or hybrid-insulated gate bipolar transistor technologies.

During its recent investor day, Tesla (TSLA) said that it had discovered a way to use less silicon carbide in its vehicles.

Could we have your expert opinion on the highlighted part please? Thank you.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/...ing_alpha&utm_term=31045170.1313 

Regards
baggo-mh

It is only rational that over the long term all EV companies want to reduce the SiC contents to cut costs so the concern is legitimate.

This article on how Tesla might use the Hybrid Si HGBT + SiC approach mentioned by the CITI analyst:

www.digitimes.com.tw/col/article.asp?id=10175

Hi all,

Q1 results are due in 2 weeks or so, so I wanted to discuss my current expectations and hear your thoughts:
Q1 has historically been a weaker Q for Aixtron but I think this is due for a change now and we will see very very strong growth rates in sales and Ebit in particular. This is purely a mathematical result from Aixtrons current guidance.
So I expect sales of around € 129m, +45% yoy and Ebit maybe around +100% yoy given the higher revenue base and low comparables. Orders will likely also see 10-20% growth yoy, at least.

Guidance will most likely be maintained unchanged given how early we are in the year but I look for comments on SIC and Gan and Micro Led, although the latter again carries a lot of uncertainty with regards to volume scale up.
I think/hope that the discussed growth rates should give the stock another push higher with most analyst targets around 35-40€, at least the 35 I regard as very realistic and provides relatively „safe“ +15-20% upside for the stock.

Keen to hear your thoughts and expectations.

Regards!
Fel  

Very impressive what AUO is showcasing:
https://taiwan.postsen.com/business/44363/The-first-year-of-Micro-LED-mass-productionAUO-debuts-the-world%E2%80%99s-first-commercialized-Micro-LED-smart-watch.html

However the Apple Ultrawatch is rumored to have a much bigger 2,1 inch display. 

And here the link to Touch Taiwan 2023.

https://www.touchtaiwan.com/en/newsDetail.asp?serno=4270

Gruß
baggo-mh

I am waiting for CWL to share his thoughts, but am myself very optimistic to see a jump in the share price as the expectations of many analyst will be too low.

Agree that a guidance raise will not happen so early into the new fiscal.

My price target for the AGM is € 35.

Best regards
baggo-mh

In post #1368, I wrote that Q3/22 rev missed by 55m due to export licenses.

Aixtron gave 475m rev guidance based on exchange rate of 1.2 in 2022.  Using the actual exchange rates in 2022 and the $ based sales equals 40 of the sales, the 2022 sales should have been about 510m, versus actual sales of 463m.  So Aixtron really missed the sales guidance  by about 50m in 2022 due to the export license issue.

This 50m rev. missed should be realized in 2023.  The question is how fast.  Aixtron has promised that there is no systematic export license issue in its last two C.C's.  If so, we should see the recovery of this lost rev. in Q1/23.  That is why I gave the estimate of 171m in post #1470.  If Aixtron ONLY gets  ~60% of the recovery in Q1/23, then the sales should be ~150m (post #1444).  Without it, the sales should be ~120m, just my estimates.

Only Aixtron knows the progress of the recovery from export license.  Aixtron did say in its CC that the 2023 rev. guidance includes the recovery of this "lost" 2022 rev.

Analysten erwarten für das traditionell schwächere Q1 im Schnitt Umsätze in Höhe von 98 Millionen Euro und ein EBIT von 17,1 Millionen Euro. Daraus würde eine Marge von rund 17,4 Prozent resultieren. In den kommenden Quartalen werden jeweils deutlich höhere Umsätze und operative Gewinne erzielt. Das Schlussquartal ist in der Regel das stärkste.

https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/aktien/...in-sicht--20330666.html 
I have no idea where Michael Schröder (he covers teh stock for some time and has it in the real money depot)  gets these analysts estimate from. Certainly not from Jeffries who have a PT of 40.

If the 100 million is the real anaylst median revenue target, then even 120 million will be fantastic news. Not to mention 129 or even 150.

Greetings
 baggo-mh

Aixtron's 2022 budget rate is 1.2 ($/Eur).  Aixtron said in the C.C. that its $ based sales is about 35% of the total sales.  We can convert Aixtron's quarterly sales using the 1.2 budget rate to take out the exchange rate fluctuation effect.  Aixtron publishes its actual $/Eur rates in its quarterly reports.  

Using those data, at the constant currency rate (1.2) Aixtron's quarterly sales should be

Q1=86.8M, Q2=98.9M, Q3=83.9M, Q4=172.5M.  

Therefore the 2022 sales under the budget rate of 1.2 would have been 442.2M.  The reported sales of 463M is 21M higher due to the benefit of the stronger $.

Remember that Aixtron gave the mid point sales guidance of 475M.  So Aixtron missed its sales guidance by 33M using its own budget rate.  If it was all due to the export licenses, this 33M "lost" revenue should show up in 2023.

However, I believe the "lost" revenue should be even higher than 33M.  That is because Aixtron upgraded its 2022 order guidance without upgrading its sales guidance in 2022.  The sales guidance of 475m (midpoint) was given in Q1/22.  So it is quite possible that the sales guidance could have been upgraded had it not been because of the export licensing issue that showed up in Q3/22.  I estimate the "lost" revenue could be up to 50M.

We will find out on 4/27.  I hope that the management clarify how much of the 2023 sales would come from the lost revenue of 2022 and how does it distribute through 2023.

Ich werde wieder reinhören und berichten mit meinen Remarks.

Heute Abend kommen die Zahlen von Wolfspeed einem Aixtron SiC Kunden. Ich bin schon sehr gespannt und wäre nicht überrascht wenn man den Konsens erneut übertrifft:
- Wolfspeed (NYSE:WOLF) is scheduled to announce Q3 earnings results on Wednesday, April 26th, after market close.
- The consensus EPS Estimate is -$0.15 (-25.0% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $220.08M (+17.1% Y/Y).
- Over the last 2 years, WOLF has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 75% of the time.

Heute kam dann noch folgende Meldung. Bosch will US-Chiphersteller TSI Semiconductors übernehmen
https://www.zeit.de/news/2023-04/26/bosch-will-us-chipherste…

Man beabsichtigt die Produktion von Si auf SiC umzustellen. Wo dann wohl die Reaktoren herkommen???
Ich kenne da einen zuverlässigen deutschen Lieferanten.

Gruß
 baggo-mh

...ist nachbörslich gefallen. Von 52 auf 48 € Zahlen sind noch nicht raus

Auf der Seite von Wolfspeed sind die Zahlen raus.

Now that Aixtron's customers have experienced delays due to the export license.  I wonder that creates an incentive for them to put in orders sooner than later.

Common sense also says that if possible Aixtron could apply for export licenses much earlier than what it did in the past to counter  the anticipated delay.

Hi all,

A typical Aixtron day, stock -7% after being week for some days now (in line with the sector).
Q1 orders solid at 140m, +7% yoy, implies orders have to pick up (yoy) to reach the guided range which has been confirmed today.

Sales and EBIT have been significantly below (!) my expectations, the company says that Export licences remain a drag. This is a bit of a concern for me given it is the 3rd Q in a row. Is this a structural concern linked to the Us sanctions towards China rather than a real lack of manpower in German authorities? This topic will of course be addressed on the call at 3 pm.

Nevertheless I regard the share price at 25-26€ as a buying opportunity with it responding as Q2 sales and orders pick up and we realise that the overall industry will turn in H2.

Looking forward to your comments!

Regards,
Fel  

Remember that no risk, no reward in stock market.  Most sellers today were probably from fear and did not listen to the CC.  I believe the risk part is largely clarified in the CC.  I bought more.

Dr. Felix Grawert addressed most of my questions on "lost" revenue.  He correctly stated that it is "delayed" revenue, not "lost" revenue I have stated here.  I think he said 20-30m delayed revenue from 2022, and 70m delayed revenue in Q1/23.  It is not clear to me whether the 70m Q1/23 delayed revenue includes the 20-30m delayed revue of 2022 or it is additional.  It would be 70-100m delayed revenue till Q1/23, roughly in line with my estimates.

He also confirmed that Aixtron and customers are putting in export license applications way earlier than in the past  to mitigate the longer processing time.

Herr Joachim Link vom Aixtron-Vorstand hat heute Aktien im Wert von 40946,85 € gekauft. Wenn das nicht ein gutes Zeichen ist. Ich selber werde also nicht verkaufen. Ich möchte die  Dividende haben.

@fel216: It is the 2nd time export licenses were mentioned. BAFA staff also needs to approve Leopard and NVA tanks shipping from NATO member States to the Ukraine, amunition & heating systems from Germany.

@CWL1: See comments on my post above what could be required to apply for an export license and prevent money laundring on the other hand. 

The way I understood the call is that 70 Million is the total pushed out from Q1. That would include any orders pushed out from Q4/22 into Q1/22.

Gruß
 baggo-mh  

Vielen Dank für die Zusammenfassung des Aixtron CC

Gruß
bestfuture

Danke.
Ich bedanke mich bei CWL1 und Fel216 für deren Einsatz zur Eruierung des Marktpotentials.

Gruß
baggo-mh

Hat heute zu 24,80 - 4.000 Stück gekauft.

Gruß
 baggo-mh

The trailing 4 Q's orders to revenue ratio as of Q1/23 is 1.32.  This picture tells a lot about the strong sale growth ahead.  The q3/22, q4/22 and Q1/23 sales are abnormalities from export license.  The drops of sales will recover in the next two quarters based on the comments by Felix in the CC.  We would see a significant uptrend of trailing 4Q's sales catching up with the strong current order trend.

Export licenses big topic on 27.10.2022, 28.2.2023 and 27.4.2023.

Call Transcript

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4598034-aixtron-se-aixxf-q1…

Wer es nachlesen oder sich einarbeiten möchte.

Gruß
 baggo-mh