Aixtron purpose of this thread

in one location and the installation is difficult and expensive,
he says. Government investment could help companies clear that
hurdle, create much-needed jobs, and give the economy a further
boost as the EV sector expands.
“It will make smaller, more niche projects more investable
because more EVs driving around mean a bigger customer base,”
Allen says, adding: “We want stimulus, not a long-term crutch
for the industry.”
The key is to get drivers past the so-called anxiety range,
or the fear of running out of battery life and winding up
stranded on the road. Until recently, however, that wasn’t a
challenge anyone particularly wanted to take on, says Javier
Guerra, a managing partner at private equity firm Satif Group
and an early investor in California plug-in venture ChargePoint.
Carmakers had no incentive to build chargers other brands could
profit from (Tesla Inc.’s chargers, for instance, only fit its
own cars and are mainly designed for home use), while utilities,
oil companies, and institutional investors considered the sector
to be too young, too risky, or both.
“When I started to look at [EV charging] back in 2016, very
few people saw the point, and there was little money to be
made,” Guerra says. Since then, the cost of EV batteries has
declined by 43%, according to BNEF, making EVs much more
accessible for the average car-buyer. That, together with
stricter emissions regulations in Europe and China, has
convinced large investors that EVs are poised for a
breakthrough.
Oil companies and utilities especially are well positioned
to dominate the EV charging market. Oil suppliers already
operate strategically located fueling stations for internal
combustion vehicles, and utilities control electricity
production and distribution networks.
“I don’t think there are clear winners yet,” says
Aleksandra O’Donovan, head of electric vehicles at BloombergNEF.
“Oil majors invest in EV charging either because they can or
must as it is mandated, and they can afford to hedge on the
future.”
Based on its estimates for EV adoption over the next 20
years, BNEF projects that 12 million public EV charging points
will be needed globally by 2040, up from fewer than 1 million
today. That will require a worldwide investment of about $111
billion.
Oil majors and utilities have rushed into the sector,
starting with Royal Dutch Shell Plc, which bought charging
network NewMotion in 2017; the company now owns or operates
142,000 chargers across Europe, and entered the U.S. market last
year with the purchase of infrastructure and software provider
Greenlots. Rival BP Plc, meanwhile, acquired Chargemaster and
its 7,000 stations for $170 million in 2018.
Utilities see the electrification of transport as a
potential savior. Global electricity consumption is expected to
slow as industries and appliances become more energy efficient,
but EVs could help prop up residential demand.
“As an electric vehicle user you don’t need to go to a
petrol station anymore—you leave your house fully charged. It’s
a completely different concept,” says Luis Buil, global head of
smart mobility at Spain’s Iberdrola SA. “We’re already in the
grid and we can guarantee that the power you charge your car
with is 100% renewable.”
Iberdrola announced in March that it would accelerate plans
to spend 150 million euros ($170 million) on its own fast
charging network. And French utility EDF, which already owned
over 100,000 charging points across Europe through its
subsidiary Izivia, acquired a majority stake in Pod Point in
February, which has more than 69,000 charge points in the U.K.
and Norway.
The holy grail charger for automakers, oil companies, and
utilities doesn’t require a grid connection at all. Shell and
Tesla, among others, are working towards building a mini-power
station with solar panels that can generate and store enough
energy to provide a consistent source of charge. If, or when,
available commercially, it would make electric vehicles and
charging infrastructure fully green.

Probably the most exciting topic for the rest of the year and something where we should expect newsflow over the coming weeks (at least on 23 July we should get some kind of update from the management). Appreciate any feedback from the board on my thoughts below:

Scenario 1
- No order from Samsung
- Timing of news? End of 3Q19, at latest by year-end?
- Aixtron confirms the end of the whole project and tries to find an interested party for the developed IP
- Aixtron guides to significantly reduced R&D cost, e.g. a positive 20 million Euro EBIT impact would lift 2021 EBIT consensus estimates by roughly 40%
- Not sure whether such news could be accompanied by a share buyback program (-> limited by Aixtron AG solo accounts?)

My take: initial share price hit (-10%?) to be expected as OLED potential will be priced out of the stock (of course one might argue that this is hardly priced in). However, I would see this reaction as rather short-lived given the market has finally clarity and due to the significant positive running P&L effect. Wouldn’t be surprised to see the share price to recover from the inital hit over a couple of trading days. Obvioulsy one of the key triggers for the shares would be gone and the other main growth drivers for Aixtron come into effect in 2021 only….i.e. continuation of the flat line share performance for a couple of months might be the result.

Scenario 2
- Samsung indeed places the order
- Timing of news? End of 3Q19 or earlier?
- 2020 order entry increases by some 30m (?), revenues benefit by same amount but only in 2021
- Market does not only price in the order entry/revenues in 2020/21, but also to a certain degree the potential for >100 million revenues on a mid-term basis.

My take: I would expect (hope for?) quite a significant share price reaction, e.g. in the +10-20% magnitude.

My gut feeling for the probability for the above scenarios: maybe 60% for scenario 2 and 40% for scenario 1.

My questions to you:
- Do I miss a scenario, is the above nonsense?
- Where do you differ in the assumptions?
- Which probability would you attach to the above scenarios?

Any feedback is highly appreciated! Natürlich auch gerne in deutsch.