Q4 prelims out: TB2 drives earnings beat; PT Up

FY group revenue rose 31% yoy (+36% cc) to € 630m, clearly above the “>€ 600m” target, thanks to the successful roll-out of Toniebox 2 (TB2), portfolio expansion into new content categories and interactive games, as well as the ongoing global expansion.

Notably, growth across all region was strong: North America remained the key growth engine, up 31% yoy (+40% cc) to € 276m, while the group’s most mature region (~ 50% market penetration) DACH re-accelerated with +16% yoy to € 214m supported by a TB2-enabled broader addressable market with likely product upgrades (TB1 to TB2). Rest of World again outperformed, surging 64% yoy (+68% cc) to € 141m, highlighting the traction of recent expansions into the UK, France, and ANZ. Q4 was particularly impactful, with € 313m revenue (+31% yoy; +39% cc), accounting for roughly 50% of the full year, underlining the strength of the holiday season, Black Friday/Cyber Monday, and the commercial success of TB2.

Margin expansion despite major product launch and tariff headwinds. The group’s FY adj. EBITDA margin improved 1.1pp yoy to 8.5%, hitting the upper end of the 6.5-8.5% guidance range and beating our 6.9% estimate. This suggests a favourable product mix (higher-margin figurines, accessories and content) and better operating leverage. While DACH already generates >20% margins, the growth engines North America and Rest of World are gradually converging to those margins once the cost intensive expansion is less pronounced and sufficient scale/market penetration is reached.

FCF generation (not part of released prelims) for FY25 should have been rather muted in light of TB2 launch-related inventory build-ups; eNuW: € 1m. Nevertheless, tonies’ balance sheet features € 73m of net cash (YE ‘25e). With dividends not yet possible, the only sensible capital allocation measures are share buybacks, in our view. We would expect further details on the capital allocation topic during the planned CMD in Q2.

FY26 with continued profitable growth. With the successful TB2 transition, tonies’ addressable market has notably expanded; from 3-7 year-olds to 1-9 year-olds. Supported by further international scaling and a deepening ecosystem, we expect a c. 22% sales CAGR through 2028e to ~€ 1.15bn, with adjusted EBITDA margins rising toward ~12% over the same period. FY26 guidance is likely to be provided with the release of the audited FY25 results in April.

The preliminary earnings release fully underpins our strong conviction on the investment case, grounded in rising international market penetration and subsequent margin and FCF improvements. At the same time, valuation remains attractive. We confirm our BUY rating with a slightly increased € 14 PT (old: € 13) based on DCF. -change of analyst-