Solid Q3; Conrad ramp-up sets stage for strong year-end

On the revenue side, total hotel sales increased by 2% yoy to € 45.2m. While Logis revenue was slightly down by 1% due to timing effects as well as the mentioned tough comparable base, F&B once again outperformed with +11% yoy to € 8.8m, reflecting the continued success of MHP’s high-margin culinary concepts. The opening of the 283-room Conrad Hamburg in early September marks a strategic milestone, adding more than 10% capacity at group level and strengthening MHP’s footprint in the luxury segment. Early trading feedback appears promising and, together with the ongoing ramp-up of the Koenigshof in Munich, should drive operating leverage into the seasonally stronger H2.

On this basis, management confirmed the FY25 guidance of € 180m sales and € 15m EBITDA, which we view as well within reach. Based on the strong H1 and stable Q3 metrics, the implied H2 growth and margin profile (c. 11% sales growth and low-to-mid-teens EBITDA margin) appear realistic. Beyond operational momentum, MHP remains well positioned for portfolio expansion. Following the € 4.5m capital increase in July and access to additional credit lines, the company holds a “war chest” of more than € 10m. With peers in the economy and mid-scale segment still facing pressure, attractive takeover opportunities in prime locations persist. As our model does not include any portfolio additions beyond the Stuttgart project (opening 2028), any additional new opening would provide upside to our estimates. In addition, the company may further roll out its high-margin lifestyle brand MOOONS.

Overall, Q3 confirms the structural strength of MHP’s business model: high occupancy, sustained pricing power even against tough comps, growing F&B, and a new luxury flagship coming online ahead of a strong seasonal phase. We therefore reiterate our BUY rating with an unchanged PT of € 3.00 based on DCF.