MGIC Investment Corporation Reports First Quarter 2025 Results

Tim Mattke, CEO of MTG and Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation ("MGIC") said, "I am pleased with our first quarter financial results, which reflect the continued strong performance we've achieved over the past few years. With our market leadership, robust capital and strong liquidity, we are in a great position to keep building on our success.

While concerns around macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions have increased, I remain confident in our talented team's ability to navigate and adapt to this evolving landscape. We are focused on executing our business strategies, supporting our customers with high-quality products and innovative solutions and delivering meaningful, long-term value to our stakeholders," concluded Mattke.

FIRST QUARTER 2025 HIGHLIGHTS

• We executed a traditional excess of loss reinsurance transaction effective March 1, 2025, which provides $250.6 million of reinsurance coverage on eligible NIW from 2020.
• We paid a dividend of $0.13 per common share to shareholders.
• We repurchased 9.2 million shares of common stock for $224.3 million.

SECOND QUARTER 2025 HIGHLIGHTS

• Through April 25, 2025 we repurchased an additional 2.8 million shares of our common stock for $65.8 million.
• We declared a dividend of $0.13 per common share to shareholders payable on May 21, 2025, to shareholders of record at the close of business on May 8, 2025.
• MGIC paid a $400 million dividend to our holding company.
• In April 2025, our board of directors approved an additional share repurchase program, authorizing us to purchase up to $750 million of common stock prior to December 31, 2027.

Conference Call and Webcast Details

MGIC Investment Corporation will hold a conference call May 1, 2025, at 10 a.m. ET to allow securities analysts and shareholders the opportunity to hear management discuss the company's quarterly results. Individuals interested in joining by telephone should register for the call at https://register-conf.media-server.com/register/BI8604a28f297d4ac08f6311669d27ed18 to receive the dial-in number and unique PIN to access the call. It is recommended that you join the call at least 10 minutes before the conference call begins. The call is also being webcast and can be accessed at the company's website at http://mtg.mgic.com/ under "Newsroom." A replay of the webcast will be available on the company's website through June 2, 2025.

About MGIC

Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation (MGIC) (www.mgic.com), the principal subsidiary of MGIC Investment Corporation, serves lenders throughout the United States, helping families achieve homeownership sooner by making affordable low-down-payment mortgages a reality through the use of private mortgage insurance. At March 31, 2025, MGIC had $293.8 billion of primary insurance in force covering 1.1 million mortgages.

This press release, which includes certain additional statistical and other information, including non-GAAP financial information and a supplement that contains various portfolio statistics, are all available on the Company's website at https://mtg.mgic.com/ under "Newsroom."

From time to time MGIC Investment Corporation releases important information via postings on its corporate website, and via postings on MGIC's website for information related to underwriting and pricing, and intends to continue to do so in the future. Such postings include corrections of previous disclosures and may be made without any other disclosure. Investors and other interested parties are encouraged to enroll to receive automatic email alerts and Really Simple Syndication (RSS) feeds regarding new postings. Enrollment information for MGIC Investment Corporation alerts can be found at https://mtg.mgic.com/shareholder-services/email-alerts. For information about our underwriting and rates, see https://www.mgic.com/underwriting. 

Safe Harbor Statement

Forward Looking Statements and Risk Factors:

Our actual results could be affected by the risk factors below. These risk factors should be reviewed in connection with this press release and our periodic reports to the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC"). These risk factors may also cause actual results to differ materially from the results contemplated by forward looking statements that we may make. Forward looking statements consist of statements which relate to matters other than historical fact, including matters that inherently refer to future events. Among others, statements that include words such as "believe," "anticipate," "will" or "expect," or words of similar import, are forward looking statements. We are not undertaking any obligation to update any forward looking statements or other statements we may make even though these statements may be affected by events or circumstances occurring after the forward looking statements or other statements were made. No investor should rely on the fact that such statements are current at any time other than the time at which this press release was delivered for dissemination to the public.

While we communicate with security analysts from time to time, it is against our policy to disclose to them any material non-public information or other confidential information. Accordingly, investors should not assume that we agree with any statement or report issued by any analyst irrespective of the content of the statement or report, and such reports are not our responsibility.

Use of Non-GAAP financial measures

We believe that use of the Non-GAAP financial measures of adjusted pre-tax operating income (loss), adjusted net operating income (loss) and adjusted net operating income (loss) per diluted share facilitate the evaluation of the company's core financial performance thereby providing relevant information to investors. These measures are not recognized in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP) and should not be viewed as alternatives to GAAP measures of performance.

Adjusted pre-tax operating income (loss) is defined as GAAP income (loss) before tax, excluding the effects of net realized investment gains (losses), gain and losses on debt extinguishment and infrequent or unusual non-operating items where applicable.

Adjusted net operating income (loss) is defined as GAAP net income (loss) excluding the after-tax effects of net realized investment gains (losses), gain and losses on debt extinguishment and infrequent or unusual non-operating items where applicable. The amounts of adjustments to components of pre-tax operating income (loss) are tax effected using a federal statutory tax rate of 21%.

Adjusted net operating income (loss) per diluted share is calculated in a manner consistent with the accounting standard regarding earnings per share by dividing (i) adjusted net operating income (loss) by (ii) diluted weighted average common shares outstanding, which reflects share dilution from unvested restricted stock units

Although adjusted pre-tax operating income (loss) and adjusted net operating income (loss) exclude certain items that have occurred in the past and are expected to occur in the future, the excluded items represent items that are: (1) not viewed as part of the operating performance of our primary activities; or (2) impacted by both discretionary and other economic or regulatory factors and are not necessarily indicative of operating trends, or both. These adjustments, along with the reasons for their treatment, are described below. Trends in the profitability of our fundamental operating activities can be more clearly identified without the fluctuations of these adjustments. Other companies may calculate these measures differently. Therefore, their measures may not be comparable to those used by us.

Risk Factors

As used below, "we," "our" and "us" refer to MGIC Investment Corporation's consolidated operations or to MGIC Investment Corporation, as the context requires; and "MGIC" refers to Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation.

Risk Factors Relating to Global Events

Wars and/or other global events may adversely affect the U.S. economy and our business.

Wars and/or other global events may result in increased inflation rates, strained supply chains, and increased volatility in the domestic and global financial markets. Wars and/or other global events have in the past and may continue to impact our business in various ways, including the following which are described in more detail in the remainder of these risk factors:

• The terms under which we are able to obtain quota share reinsurance ("QSR") and/or excess-of-loss ("XOL") reinsurance through the insurance-linked notes ("ILN") market and the traditional reinsurance market may be negatively impacted and terms under which we are able to access those markets in the future may be limited or less attractive.
  
  
• The risk of a cybersecurity incident that affects our company may increase.
  
  
• Wars may negatively impact the domestic economy, which may increase unemployment and inflation, or decrease home prices, in each case leading to an increase in loan delinquencies.
  
  
• The volatility in the financial markets may impact the performance of our investment portfolio and our investment portfolio may include investments in companies or securities that are negatively impacted by wars and/or other global events.

Risk Factors Relating to the Mortgage Insurance Industry and its Regulation

Downturns in the domestic economy or declines in home prices may result in more homeowners defaulting and our losses increasing, with a corresponding decrease in our returns.

Losses result from general economic or personal events that reduce a borrower's ability or willingness to make mortgage payments, such as recession, unemployment, decreases in home prices, health issues, and changes in family status.  Such events are outside of our control, difficult to predict, and generally increase loan delinquencies and claims. Additionally, economic conditions may differ from region to region. Information about the geographic dispersion of our risk in force and delinquency inventory can be found in our Annual Reports on Form 10-K and our Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q.

A decline in home prices may make it more difficult for borrowers to sell or refinance their homes, increasing the chances of default. Additionally, a decline in home prices may result in loan balances exceeding home values, discouraging borrowers from continuing to make payments.  The seasonally-adjusted Purchase-Only U.S. Home Price Index of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (the "FHFA"), which is based on single-family properties whose mortgages have been purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, indicates that home prices increased .1% nationwide in February, 2025 compared to January, 2025. Although the 12 month change in home prices recently reached historically high rates, the rate of growth is moderating: it increased by 4.8% in 2024, after increasing 6.7%, 6.8%, and 17.8% in 2023, 2022, and 2021, respectively. The national average price-to-income ratio exceeds its historical average, in part as a result of recent home price appreciation outpacing increases in income. Affordability issues can put downward pressure on home prices. A decline in home prices may occur even absent a deterioration in economic conditions due to declines in demand for homes, which in turn may result from changes in buyers' perceptions of the potential for future appreciation, restrictions on and the cost of mortgage credit due to more stringent underwriting standards, higher interest rates, changes to the tax deductibility of mortgage interest, decreases in the rate of household formations, or other factors. 

Changes in the business practices of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac ("the GSEs"), federal legislation that changes their charters or a restructuring of the GSEs could reduce our revenues or increase our losses.

The substantial majority of our new insurance written ("NIW") is for loans purchased by the GSEs; therefore, the business practices of the GSEs greatly impact our business. The GSEs possess substantial market power, which enables them to influence our business and the mortgage insurance industry in general. In 2008 the housing market was in severe decline, which damaged the financial condition of the GSEs. FHFA placed the GSEs into conservatorship on September 7, 2008 and the FHFA has the authority to control and direct their operations. Given that the Director of the FHFA serves at the pleasure of the President, the agency's agenda, policies and actions may be influenced by the then-current administration.

Changes in the status, powers, or supervision of the GSEs, whether through legislation or administrative action, that impact private mortgage insurers could have an adverse effect on our business, revenue, results of operations and financial condition. Business practices of the GSEs that affect the mortgage insurance industry include:

• The GSEs' private mortgage insurer eligibility requirements ("PMIERs"), the financial requirements of which are discussed in our risk factor titled "We may not continue to meet the GSEs' private mortgage insurer eligibility requirements and our returns may decrease if we are required to maintain more capital in order to maintain our eligibility."
  
  
• The capital and collateral requirements for participants in the GSEs' alternative forms of credit enhancement discussed in our risk factor titled "The amount of insurance we write could be adversely affected if lenders and investors select alternatives to private mortgage insurance or are unable to obtain capital relief for mortgage insurance."
  
  
• The level of private mortgage insurance coverage, subject to the limitations of the GSEs' charters, when private mortgage insurance is used as the required credit enhancement on low down payment mortgages (the GSEs generally require a level of mortgage insurance coverage that is higher than the level of coverage required by their charters; any change in the required level of coverage will impact our new risk written).
  
  
• The amount of loan level price adjustments and guaranty fees (which result in higher costs to borrowers) that the GSEs assess on loans that require private mortgage insurance. The requirements of the new GSE capital framework may lead the GSEs to increase their guaranty fees. In addition, the FHFA has indicated that it is reviewing the GSEs' pricing in connection with preparing them to exit conservatorship and to ensure that pricing subsidies benefit only affordable housing activities.
  
  
• Whether the GSEs select or influence the mortgage lender's selection of the mortgage insurer providing coverage.
  
  
• The underwriting standards that determine which loans are eligible for purchase by the GSEs, which can affect the quality of the risk insured by the mortgage insurer and the availability of mortgage loans.
  
  
• The terms on which mortgage insurance coverage can be canceled before reaching the cancellation thresholds established by law and the business practices associated with such cancellations. If the GSEs or other mortgage investors change their practices regarding the timing of cancellation of mortgage insurance due to home price appreciation, policy goals, changing risk tolerances or otherwise, we could experience an unexpected reduction in our insurance in force ("IIF"), which would negatively impact our business and financial results. For more information, see the discussion below regarding the GSEs' Equitable Housing Plans and our risk factor titled "The length of time our insurance policies remain in force has a significant impact on our results."
  
  
• The programs established by the GSEs intended to avoid or mitigate loss on insured mortgages and the circumstances in which mortgage servicers must implement such programs.
  
  
• The terms that the GSEs require to be included in mortgage insurance policies for loans that they purchase, including limitations on the rescission rights of mortgage insurers.
  
  
• The extent to which the GSEs intervene in mortgage insurers' claims paying practices, rescission practices or rescission settlement practices with lenders.
  
  
• The maximum loan limits of the GSEs compared to those of the Federal Housing Administration ("FHA") and other investors.
  
  
• The benchmarks established by the FHFA for loans to be purchased by the GSEs, which can affect the loans available to be insured. In December 2021, the FHFA established the benchmark levels for 2022-2024 purchases of low-income home mortgages, very low-income home mortgages and low-income refinance mortgages, each of which exceeded the 2021 benchmarks. The FHFA also established two new sub-goals: one targeting minority communities and the other targeting low-income neighborhoods. In August 2024, FHFA proposed new benchmark levels for 2025-2027 purchases of low-income home mortgages and very low-income home mortgages that were lower than the 2022-2024 levels, but higher than pre-2022 levels. The level for low income refinance mortgages was unchanged from the 2022-2024 level, but was higher than the pre-2022 level.

The prior presidential administration issued multiple directives requiring federal agencies to increase their focus and funding of housing initiatives for minority and low-income borrowers. In March of 2025, the Director of the FHFA  indicated that FHFA is reviewing how to continue to achieve the purposes of the GSEs' statutory missions.  Although it is unclear at this time, it is possible that this review may result in changes to the business practices and policies of the GSEs.  To the extent the business practices and policies of the GSEs regarding mortgage insurance coverage, costs and cancellation change, such changes may negatively impact the mortgage insurance industry and our financial results.

It is uncertain what role the GSEs, FHA and private capital, including private mortgage insurance, will play in the residential housing finance system in the future. The timing and impact on our business of any resulting changes are uncertain. For changes that would require Congressional action to implement it is difficult to estimate when Congressional action would be final and how long any associated phase-in period may last.

We may not continue to meet the GSEs' private mortgage insurer eligibility requirements and our returns may decrease if we are required to maintain more capital in order to maintain our eligibility.

We must comply with a GSE's PMIERs to be eligible to insure loans delivered to or purchased by that GSE. The PMIERs include financial requirements, as well as business, quality control and certain transaction approval requirements. The PMIERs provide that the GSEs may amend any provision of the PMIERs or impose additional requirements with an effective date specified by the GSEs.

The financial requirements of the PMIERs require a mortgage insurer's "Available Assets" (generally only the most liquid assets of an insurer) to equal or exceed its "Minimum Required Assets" (which are generally based on an insurer's book of risk in force and calculated from tables of factors with several risk dimensions, reduced for credit given for risk ceded under reinsurance agreements).

Based on our interpretation of the PMIERs, as of March 31, 2025, MGIC's Available Assets totaled $5.9 billion, or $2.6 billion in excess of its Minimum Required Assets. MGIC is in compliance with the PMIERs and eligible to insure loans purchased by the GSEs. In August 2024, the GSEs issued updates to the calculation of Available Assets. The updates will be implemented through a 24-month phased-in approach, with a fully effective date of September 30, 2026.  If these changes were effective as of March 31, 2025, without a graduated implementation period, MGIC's Available Assets of $5.9 billion would decrease by approximately 1% or $50 million, and MGIC's PMIERs excess would be $2.5 billion.

Our Minimum Required Assets reflect a credit for risk ceded under our QSR and XOL reinsurance transactions, which are discussed in our risk factor titled "Our underwriting practices and the mix of business we write affects our Minimum Required Assets under the PMIERs, our premium yields and the likelihood of losses occurring." The calculated credit for XOL reinsurance transactions under PMIERs is generally based on the PMIERs requirement of the covered loans and the attachment and detachment points of the coverage, all of which fluctuate over time. PMIERs credit is generally not given for the reinsured risk above the PMIERs requirement. The GSEs have discretion to further limit reinsurance credit under the PMIERs. Refer to "Consolidated Results of Operations – Reinsurance Transactions" in Part I, Item 2 of our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for information about the calculated PMIERs credit for our XOL transactions. There is a risk we will not receive our current level of credit in future periods for ceded risk. In addition, we may not receive the same level of credit under future reinsurance transactions that we receive under existing transactions. If MGIC is not allowed certain levels of credit under the PMIERs, under certain circumstances, MGIC may terminate the reinsurance transactions without penalty.

The PMIERs generally require us to hold significantly more Minimum Required Assets for delinquent loans than for performing loans and the Minimum Required Assets required to be held increases as the number of payments missed on a delinquent loan increases. If the number of loan delinquencies increases for reasons discussed in these risk factors, or otherwise, it may cause our Minimum Required Assets to exceed our Available Assets. We are unable to predict the ultimate number of loans that will become delinquent. If we are required to hold more capital relative to our insured loans it could adversely affect our business and results of operations, or prohibit or delay us from taking actions that would be advantageous to our investors.

If our Available Assets fall below our Minimum Required Assets, we would not be in compliance with the PMIERs. The PMIERs provide a list of remediation actions for a mortgage insurer's non-compliance, with additional actions possible in the GSEs' discretion. At the extreme, the GSEs may suspend or terminate our eligibility to insure loans purchased by them. Such suspension or termination would significantly reduce the volume of our NIW, the substantial majority of which is for loans delivered to or purchased by the GSEs.

Additionally, the PMIERs impose transactional approval conditions that may restrict or delay us from taking certain actions. In the event that one or both of the GSEs does not approve an intended course of action, there may be a material adverse effect on our business and results of operations. 

Should capital be needed by MGIC in the future, capital contributions from our holding company may not be available due to competing demands on holding company resources.

Because loss reserve estimates are subject to uncertainties, paid claims may be substantially different than our loss reserves.

When we establish case reserves, we estimate our ultimate loss on delinquent loans by estimating the number of such loans that will result in a claim payment (the "claim rate"), and further estimating the amount of the claim payment (the "claim severity"). Changes to our claim rate and claim severity estimates could have a material impact on our future results, even in a stable economic environment. Our estimates incorporate anticipated cures, loss mitigation activity, rescissions and curtailments. The establishment of loss reserves is subject to inherent uncertainty and requires significant judgment by management. Our actual claim payments may differ substantially from our loss reserve estimates. Our estimates could be affected by several factors, including a change in regional or national economic conditions as discussed in these risk factors and a change in the length of time loans are delinquent before claims are received. Generally, the longer a loan is delinquent before a claim is received, the greater the severity. Foreclosure moratoriums and forbearance programs increase the average time it takes to receive claims.  Generally, losses follow a seasonal trend in which the first half of the year has stronger credit performance than the second half, with higher cure rates and lower new delinquency notice activity. The state of the economy, local housing markets, pandemics, natural disasters, and various other factors, may result in delinquencies not following the typical pattern.

We are subject to comprehensive regulation and other requirements, which we may fail to satisfy.

We are subject to comprehensive regulation, including by state insurance departments. Many regulations are designed for the protection of our insured policyholders and consumers, rather than for the benefit of investors. Mortgage insurers, including MGIC, have in the past been involved in litigation and regulatory actions related to alleged violations of the anti-referral fee provisions of the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act ("RESPA"), and the notice provisions of the Fair Credit Reporting Act ("FCRA"). While these proceedings in the aggregate did not result in material liability for MGIC, there can be no assurance that the outcome of future proceedings, if any, under these laws or others would not have a material adverse effect on us.

We provide contract underwriting services, including on loans for which we are not providing mortgage insurance.  These services are subject to contractual obligations and federal and state regulation. Our failure to meet the standards set forth in the applicable contracts or regulations would subject us to potential litigation or regulatory action. To the extent that we are construed to make independent credit decisions in connection with our contract underwriting activities, we also could be subject to increased regulatory requirements under the Equal Credit Opportunity Act ("ECOA"), FCRA, and other laws. Under relevant laws, examination may also be made of whether a mortgage insurer's underwriting decisions have a disparate impact on persons belonging to a protected class in violation of the law.

Although their scope varies, state insurance laws generally grant broad supervisory powers to agencies or officials to examine insurance companies and enforce rules or exercise discretion affecting almost every significant aspect of the insurance business, including payment for the referral of insurance business, premium rates and discrimination in pricing, and minimum capital requirements. The increased use by the private mortgage insurance industry of risk-based pricing systems that establish premium rates based on more attributes than previously considered, and of algorithms, artificial intelligence and data and analytics, has led to additional regulatory scrutiny of premium rates and of other matters such as discrimination in pricing and underwriting, data privacy and access to insurance. For more information about state capital requirements, see our risk factor titled "State capital requirements may prevent us from continuing to write new insurance on an uninterrupted basis." For information about regulation of data privacy, see our risk factor titled "We could be materially adversely affected by a cybersecurity breach or failure of information security controls." For more details about the various ways in which our subsidiaries are regulated, see "Business - Regulation" in Item 1 of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024.

While we have established policies and procedures to comply with applicable laws and regulations, many such laws and regulations are complex and it is not possible to predict the eventual scope, duration or outcome of any reviews or investigations nor is it possible to predict their effect on us or the mortgage insurance industry.

Pandemics, hurricanes and other disasters may adversely impact our results of operations and financial condition.

Pandemics and other disasters, such as hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, wildfires and floods, or other events related to climate change, could trigger an economic downturn in the affected areas, or in areas with similar risks, which could result in a decrease in home prices, an increased claim rate and increased claim severity in those areas. Due to the increased frequency and severity of natural disasters, some homeowners' insurers are increasing premium rates or withdrawing from certain states or areas that they deem to be high risk.  Even though we do not generally insure losses related to property damage, the inability of a borrower to obtain hazard and/or flood insurance, or the increased cost of such insurance, could lead to a decrease in home prices in the affected areas and an increase in delinquencies and our incurred losses.

The PMIERs require us to maintain significantly more "Minimum Required Assets" for delinquent loans than for performing loans.  See our risk factor titled "We may not continue to meet the GSEs' private mortgage insurer eligibility requirements and our returns may decrease if we are required to maintain more capital in order to maintain our eligibility."

Pandemics and other disasters could also lead to increased reinsurance rates or reduced availability of reinsurance. This may cause us to retain more risk than we otherwise would and could negatively affect our compliance with the financial requirements of State Capital Requirements and the PMIERs. Similarly, pandemics and other disasters may impact the value of and cause volatility in our investment portfolio, which could also negatively affect our compliance with the financial requirements of PMIERs.

FHFA is working to incorporate climate risk considerations into its policy development and processes. The FHFA has instructed the GSEs to designate climate change as a priority concern and actively consider its effects in their decision making. FHFA has established internal working groups and a steering committee in order to ensure that the GSEs are accounting for the risks associated with climate change and natural disasters. In May 2024, FHFA published an advisory bulletin highlighting the need for the GSEs to establish, as appropriate, risk management practices that identify, assess, control, monitor and report climate-related risks, and the need to have appropriate risk management policies, standards, procedures, controls and reporting systems in place. It is possible that efforts to manage these risks by the FHFA, GSEs (including through GSE guideline or mortgage insurance policy changes) or others could materially impact the volume and characteristics of our NIW (including its policy terms), home prices in certain areas and defaults by borrowers in certain areas.

Reinsurance may be unavailable at current levels and prices, and/or the GSEs may reduce the amount of capital credit we receive for our reinsurance transactions.

We have in place QSR and XOL reinsurance transactions providing various amounts of coverage on our risk in force as of March 31, 2025. Refer to Part 1, Note 4 – "Reinsurance" and Part 1, Item 2 "Consolidated Results of Operations – Reinsurance Transactions" of our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q, for more information about coverage under our reinsurance transactions. The reinsurance transactions reduce the tail-risk associated with stress scenarios. As a result, they reduce the risk-based capital that we are required to hold to support the risk and they allow us to earn higher returns on risk-based capital for our business than we would without them. However, market conditions impact the availability and cost of reinsurance. Reinsurance may not always be available to us, or available only on terms or at costs that we consider unacceptable. If we are not able to obtain reinsurance we will be required to hold additional capital to support our risk in force.

Reinsurance transactions subject us to counterparty risk, including the financial capability of the reinsurers to make payments for losses ceded to them under the reinsurance agreements. As reinsurance does not relieve us of our obligation to pay claims to our policyholders, our inability to recover losses from a reinsurer could have a material impact on our results of operations and financial condition. 

The GSEs may change the credit they allow under the PMIERs for risk ceded under our reinsurance transactions. At present, the GSE capital framework provides more capital credit for transactions with higher rated counterparties, as well as those who are diversified. If the GSEs were to reduce the credit that we receive for reinsurance under the PMIERs, it could result in decreased returns absent an increase in our premium rates. An increase in our premium rates to adjust for a decrease in reinsurance credit may lead to a decrease in our NIW and net income. 

Because we establish loss reserves only upon a loan delinquency rather than based on estimates of our ultimate losses on risk in force, losses may have a disproportionate adverse effect on our earnings in certain periods.

In accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States, we establish case reserves for insurance losses and loss adjustment expenses only when delinquency notices are received for insured loans that are two or more payments past due and for loans we estimate are delinquent but for which delinquency notices have not yet been received (which we include in "IBNR"). Losses that may occur from loans that are not delinquent are not reflected in our financial statements, except when a "premium deficiency" is recorded. A premium deficiency would be recorded if the present value of expected future losses and expenses exceeds the present value of expected future premiums, anticipated investment income, and already established loss reserves on the applicable loans. As a result, future losses incurred on loans that are not currently delinquent may have a material impact on future results as delinquencies emerge. As of March 31, 2025, we had established case reserves and reported losses incurred for 25,438 loans in our delinquency inventory and our IBNR reserve totaled $29 million. The number of loans in our delinquency inventory may increase from that level as a result of economic conditions relating to current global events or other factors and our losses incurred may increase.

State capital requirements may prevent us from continuing to write new insurance on an uninterrupted basis.

The insurance laws of 16 jurisdictions, including Wisconsin, MGIC's domiciliary state, require a mortgage insurer to maintain a minimum amount of statutory capital relative to its risk in force (or a similar measure) in order for the mortgage insurer to continue to write new business. We refer to these requirements as the "State Capital Requirements." While they vary among jurisdictions, the most common State Capital Requirements allow for a maximum risk-to-capital ratio of 25 to 1. A risk-to-capital ratio will increase if (i) the percentage decrease in capital exceeds the percentage decrease in insured risk, or (ii) the percentage increase in capital is less than the percentage increase in insured risk. Wisconsin does not regulate capital by using a risk-to-capital measure but instead requires a minimum policyholder position ("MPP"). MGIC's "policyholder position" includes its net worth, or surplus, and its contingency reserve.

At March 31, 2025, MGIC's risk-to-capital ratio was 9.8 to 1, below the maximum allowed by the jurisdictions with State Capital Requirements, and its policyholder position was $3.8 billion above the required MPP of $2.2 billion. Our risk-to-capital ratio and MPP reflect credit for the risk ceded under our reinsurance agreements with unaffiliated reinsurers. If MGIC is not allowed an agreed level of credit under the State Capital Requirements, MGIC may terminate the reinsurance transactions, without penalty.

In 2023, the NAIC adopted a revised Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Model Act. The updated Model Act includes requirements relating to, among other things: (i) capital and minimum capital requirements, and contingency reserves; (ii)  restrictions on mortgage insurers' investments in notes secured by mortgages; (iii) prudent underwriting standards and formal underwriting guidelines; (iv) the establishment of formal, internal "Mortgage Guaranty Quality Control Programs" with respect to in-force business; and (v) reinsurance and prohibitions on captive reinsurance arrangements. It is uncertain when the revised Model Act will be adopted in any jurisdiction. The provisions of the Model Act, if adopted in their final form, are not expected to have a material adverse effect on our business. It is unknown whether any changes will be made by state legislatures prior to adoption, and the effect changes, if any, will have on the mortgage guaranty insurance market generally, or on our business. Wisconsin, where MGIC is domiciled, has begun the process to replace current mortgage insurance regulations with the Model Act, though it is expected that some changes will be made before formal adoption. 

While MGIC currently meets the State Capital Requirements of Wisconsin and all other jurisdictions, it could be prevented from writing new business in the future in all jurisdictions if it fails to meet the State Capital Requirements of Wisconsin, or it could be prevented from writing new business in a particular jurisdiction if it fails to meet the State Capital Requirements of that jurisdiction, and in each case if MGIC does not obtain a waiver of such requirements. It is possible that regulatory action by one or more jurisdictions, including those that do not have specific State Capital Requirements, may prevent MGIC from continuing to write new insurance in such jurisdictions. If we are unable to write business in a particular jurisdiction, lenders may be unwilling to procure insurance from us anywhere. In addition, a lender's assessment of the future ability of our insurance operations to meet the State Capital Requirements or the PMIERs may affect its willingness to procure insurance from us. In this regard, see our risk factor titled "Competition or changes in our relationships with our customers could reduce our revenues, reduce our premium yields and/or increase our losses." A possible future failure by MGIC to meet the State Capital Requirements or the PMIERs will not necessarily mean that MGIC lacks sufficient resources to pay claims on its insurance liabilities. You should read the rest of these risk factors for information about matters that could negatively affect MGIC's compliance with State Capital Requirements and its claims paying resources.

If the volume of low down payment home mortgage originations declines, the amount of insurance that we write could decline.

The factors that may affect the volume of low down payment mortgage originations include the health of the U.S. economy; conditions in regional and local economies and the level of consumer confidence; the health and stability of the financial services industry; restrictions on mortgage credit due to more stringent underwriting standards, liquidity issues or risk-retention and/or capital requirements affecting lenders; the level of home mortgage interest rates; housing affordability; new and existing housing availability; the rate of household formation, which is influenced, in part, by population and immigration trends; homeownership rates; the rate of home price appreciation, which in times of heavy refinancing can affect whether refinanced loans have LTV ratios that require private mortgage insurance; tax policy; and government housing policy encouraging equitable housing and loans to first-time homebuyers. A decline in the volume of low down payment home mortgage originations could decrease demand for mortgage insurance and limit our NIW. For other factors that could decrease the demand for mortgage insurance, see our risk factor titled "The amount of insurance we write could be adversely affected if lenders and investors select alternatives to private mortgage insurance or are unable to obtain capital relief for mortgage insurance."

The amount of insurance we write could be adversely affected if lenders and investors select alternatives to private mortgage insurance or are unable to obtain capital relief for mortgage insurance.

Alternatives to private mortgage insurance include:

• investors using risk mitigation and credit risk transfer techniques other than private mortgage insurance, or accepting credit risk without credit enhancement,
  
  
• lenders and other investors holding mortgages in portfolio and self-insuring,
  
  
• lenders using FHA, U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs ("VA") and other government mortgage insurance programs, and
  
  
• lenders originating mortgages using piggyback structures to avoid private mortgage insurance, such as a first mortgage with an 80% loan-to-value ("LTV") ratio and a second mortgage with a 10%, 15% or 20% LTV ratio rather than a first mortgage with a 90%, 95% or 100% LTV ratio that has private mortgage insurance.

The GSEs' charters generally require credit enhancement for a low down payment mortgage loan (a loan in an amount that exceeds 80% of a home's value) in order for such loan to be eligible for purchase by the GSEs. Private mortgage insurance generally has been purchased by lenders in primary mortgage market transactions to satisfy this credit enhancement requirement. In 2018, the GSEs initiated secondary mortgage market programs with loan level mortgage default coverage provided by various (re)insurers that are not mortgage insurers governed by PMIERs, and that are not selected by the lenders. These programs, which currently account for a small percentage of the low down payment market, compete with traditional private mortgage insurance and, due to differences in policy terms, they may offer premium rates that are below prevalent single premium lender-paid mortgage insurance ("LPMI") rates. We participate in these programs from time to time. See our risk factor titled "Changes in the business practices of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac ("the GSEs"), federal legislation that changes their charters or a restructuring of the GSEs could reduce our revenues or increase our losses" for a discussion of various business practices of the GSEs that may be changed, including through expansion or modification of these programs.

The GSEs (and other investors) have also used other forms of credit enhancement that did not involve traditional private mortgage insurance, such as engaging in credit-linked note transactions executed in the capital markets, or using other forms of debt issuances or securitizations that transfer credit risk directly to other investors, including competitors and an affiliate of MGIC; using other risk mitigation techniques in conjunction with reduced levels of private mortgage insurance coverage; or accepting credit risk without credit enhancement.

Government-supported mortgage insurance programs are not subject to the same capital requirements, risk tolerance or business objectives as private mortgage insurance companies and generally have greater financial flexibility in setting their pricing, guidelines and capacity, which could put us at a competitive disadvantage. If the FHA or other government-supported mortgage insurance programs increase their share of the mortgage insurance market, our business could be affected. Factors that influence market share include relative rates and fees, underwriting guidelines and loan limits of the FHA, VA, private mortgage insurers and the GSEs; changes to the GSEs' business practices; lenders' perceptions of legal risks under FHA versus GSE programs; flexibility for the FHA to establish new products as a result of federal legislation and programs; returns expected to be obtained by lenders for Ginnie Mae securitization of FHA-insured loans compared to those obtained from selling loans to the GSEs for securitization; and differences in policy terms, such as the ability of a borrower to cancel insurance coverage under certain circumstances.

The FHA's share of the low down payment residential mortgages that were subject to FHA, VA, USDA or primary private mortgage insurance was 33.5% in 2024, 33.2% in 2023, and 26.7% in 2022. Since 2012, the FHA's market share has been as low as 23.4% (2020) and as high as 42.1% (in 2012). In February, 2023 the FHA announced a 30-basis point decrease in its mortgage insurance premium rates. This rate reduction has negatively impacted our NIW. The extent of the future impact of this rate reduction, or that of any other future government-supported mortgage insurance program premium changes, on our NIW is uncertain. 

The VA's share of the low down payment residential mortgages that were subject to FHA, VA, USDA or primary private mortgage insurance was 24.5% in 2024, 21.5% in 2023, and 24.5% in 2022. Since 2012, the VA's market share has been as high as 30.9% (in 2020). The VA's 2023 market share was the lowest since 2013 (22.8%). The VA program offers 100% LTV ratio loans for qualifying borrowers.

In July 2023, the Federal Reserve Board, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency proposed a revised regulatory capital rule that would impose higher capital standards on large U.S. banks. Under the proposed regulation's new expanded risk-based approach, affected banks would no longer receive risk-based capital relief for mortgage insurance on loans held in their portfolios. If adopted as proposed, the regulation is expected to have a negative effect on our NIW; however, at this time it is difficult to predict the extent of the impact. In September 2024, it was announced that regulators may revise the proposed rule, including by lowering the proposed-risk weighting for loans secured by residential real estate. It is unknown at this time what, if any, effect this would have on our NIW. More recently, in November 2024, it was announced that the proposed rule will be placed on hold. It is possible that in the future the current Presidential Administration will revise or withdraw the proposed rule.

The length of time our insurance policies remain in force has a significant impact on our results.

The premium from a single premium policy is collected upfront and generally earned over the estimated life of the policy. In contrast, premiums from monthly and annual premium policies are received each month or year, as applicable, and earned each month over the life of the policy. In each year, most of our premiums earned are from insurance that has been written in prior years. As a result, the length of time insurance remains in force, which is generally measured by annual persistency (the percentage of our insurance remaining in force from one year prior), is a significant determinant of our revenues. A higher than expected persistency rate may decrease the profitability from single premium policies because they will remain in force longer and may increase the incidence of claims that was estimated when the policies were written. A low persistency rate on monthly and annual premium policies will reduce future premiums but may also reduce the incidence of claims, while a high persistency on those policies will increase future premiums but may increase the incidence of claims.

Our annual persistency rate was 84.7% at March 31, 2025, 84.8% at December 31, 2024, and 86.1% at December 31, 2023. Since 2018, our annual persistency rate ranged from a high of 86.3% at September 30, 2023, to a low of 60.7% at March 31, 2021. Our persistency rate is primarily affected by the level of current mortgage interest rates compared to the mortgage coupon rates on our insurance in force, which affects the vulnerability of the IIF to refinancing; and the current amount of equity that borrowers have in the homes underlying our insurance in force. The amount of equity affects persistency in the following ways:

• Borrowers with significant equity may be able to refinance their loans without requiring mortgage insurance.
  
  
• The Homeowners Protection Act ("HOPA") requires servicers to cancel mortgage insurance when a borrower's LTV ratio meets or is scheduled to meet certain levels, generally based on the original value of the home and subject to various conditions and exclusions.
  
  
• The GSEs' mortgage insurance cancellation guidelines apply more broadly than HOPA and also consider a home's current value. For more information about the GSEs' guidelines and business practices, and how they may change, see our risk factor titled "Changes in the business practices of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac ("the GSEs"), federal legislation that changes their charters or a restructuring of the GSEs could reduce our revenues or increase our losses."

We are susceptible to disruptions in the servicing of mortgage loans that we insure and we rely on third-party reporting for information regarding the mortgage loans we insure.

We depend on reliable, consistent third-party servicing of the loans that we insure. An increase in delinquent loans may result in liquidity issues for servicers. When a mortgage loan that is collateral for a mortgage-backed security ("MBS") becomes delinquent, the servicer is usually required to continue to pay principal and interest to the MBS investors, generally for four months, even though the servicer is not receiving payments from borrowers. This may cause liquidity issues, especially for non-bank servicers (who service approximately 56% of the loans underlying our IIF as of March 31, 2025) because they do not have the same sources of liquidity that bank servicers have.