Silicon Valley Bank Releases 25th Annual State of the US Wine Industry Report

NAPA, Calif., Jan. 15, 2026

• Total volume of ~329 million cases (down from 335.9 million in 2024)
• Total value of ~$74.3 billion (down from $75.5 billion in 2024).

The wine industry is moving through a multi-year demand correction, largely driven by value wines at the under $12 price point. Industry sales in 2025 declined 2.0% (by cases) and 1.6% (by dollars), yet both represent improvements compared to 2024. The industry ended the year with both profit margin compression and higher levels of inventory.

The premium industry will likely experience its first sales growth rate decline in since 2020. In the first half of 2025, financial results collected in SVB's Peer Group Analysis Database show premium winery revenues were down 1.2% in both case and dollars sales. The premium segment demonstrated balanced to slightly heavy inventories.

"We expect the decline in total market demand to improve in 2026, with the market bottoming in 2027 through 2028 before returning to modest growth rates," said Rob McMillan, First Citizens Bank's Silicon Valley Bank Wine Division founder and author of the report. "This is not a cycle you can wait out. The wineries still demonstrating growth are not betting on a return to normal – they are fundamentally altering how they engage with the consumer, manage inventory, and are redefining their brand's value proposition."

The 2026 SVB wine report examines the latest consumption, pricing and sales data as well as the most promising wine industry marketing strategies. It also provides an in-depth analysis of the key trends and data impacting the US wine industry:

• The rate of the demand decline for the wine industry is predicted to improve in 2026, bounce along a bottom through 2027-2028, then shift back to modest growth.
• Excess inventory of high-quality, bulk wine is creating compelling consumer value in private labels, where wine demand is growing in double digits.
• Oversupply remains a structural headwind with elevated inventories spanning the entire supply chain. That will improve only when demand improves at retail.
• Tasting room visits declined at smaller hospitality-focused wineries as did average check sizes at most small, direct-to-consumer-focused wineries.

Silicon Valley Bank will host a live webinar to discuss the annual report and state of the wine industry on January 15^th at 9:00 a.m. PST. The panel will include Rob McMillan of Silicon Valley Bank, a division of First Citizen Bank, Janie Brooks Heuck, Managing Director of Brooks Wine, Kristin Marchesi, Managing Director of Metis Mergers & Acquisitions, and Matthew Owings, VP and General Manager of Rombauer Vineyards. Register for the live webinar here. A replay of the discussion will be available after the event.

Read the full 2026 State of the Wine Industry report here. 

Silicon Valley Bank's Wine Division
Founded in 1994, SVB's Wine Division specializes in commercial banking for premium wineries and vineyards and the industries that support them. With the largest team of commercial bankers dedicated to the wine industry of any bank nationwide, SVB's Wine Division has offices in Napa, Sonoma and Oregon serving clients in the fine-wine producing regions of California, Oregon and Washington.

About Silicon Valley Bank
Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), a division of First Citizens Bank, is the bank of some of the world's most innovative companies and investors. SVB provides commercial banking to companies in the technology, life science and healthcare, private equity and venture capital industries. SVB operates in centers of innovation throughout the United States, serving the unique needs of its dynamic clients with deep sector expertise, insights and connections. Learn more at svb.com.

About First Citizens Bank
First Citizens Bank helps personal, business, commercial and wealth clients build financial strength that lasts. Headquartered in Raleigh, N.C., First Citizens has built a unique legacy of strength, stability and long-term thinking that has spanned generations. First Citizens offers an array of general banking services with branches and offices nationwide; commercial banking expertise delivering best-in-class lending, leasing and other financial services coast to coast; innovation banking serving businesses at every stage; and a nationwide direct bank. Parent company First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (NASDAQ: FCNCA) is a top 20 U.S. financial institution with more than $200 billion in assets and a member of the Fortune 500™. Discover more at firstcitizens.com.

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SOURCE Silicon Valley Bank