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Original-Research: OHB SE - from NuWays AG
13.11.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to OHB SE
Company Name: OHB SE
ISIN: DE0005936124
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: EUR 340
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Simon Keller
Q3 review: no change to the bigger picture; chg.
OHB's Q3 showed further margin improvement ahead of the larger programme
ramp-up. Meanwhile, output growth moderated to 6% yoy from 11% in H1. With
IRIS² and Sentinel contracts secured, attention should increasingly turn to
their contribution in 2027 and the next major defence awards. In detail:
Margin progression remains encouraging. Q3 total operating performance
increased 6% yoy to EUR 319m (eCons: EUR 331m). Adj. EBITDA rose 12% yoy to EUR
39.3m (eCons: EUR 39.0m), lifting the margin by 0.7pp to 12.3% (implied eCons:
11.8%). The company benefited from higher Ariane 6 activity, stronger demand
from US launcher customers and defence components. Earlier staffing and
machinery investments are now supporting higher production volumes,
illustrating the potential for operating leverage as activity scales.
Higher one-off costs weigh on reported earnings. Reported Q3 EBITDA amounted
to EUR 31.1m (eCons: EUR 36.7m), after EUR 8.2m of special items. Nine-month
adjustments totalled EUR 32.2m, including EUR 26.8m of transaction costs.
One-off costs should decline noticeably over the coming years as
transformation expenses gradually phase out and the costs related to the
capital increase do not recur (eNuW).
Q4 should benefit from higher project activity and deliveries. Confirmed
guidance of c. EUR 1.4bn in total operating performance and a 10.5-11.0% adj.
EBITDA margin implies Q4 output of c. EUR 454m (+18% yoy) and adj. EBITDA of EUR
47-54m. Planned project progress and subcontractor deliveries, including
supplies deferred from Q3, support our view that guidance is well within
reach.
Secured programmes strengthen visibility beyond 2026. September's order
backlog increased 26% yoy to EUR 3.94bn, equivalent to 2.8x guided FY26
output, including the nearly EUR 1bn IRIS² award. The subsequent EUR 554m
Sentinel-3 Next Generation Topography contract for the first satellite adds
to this base, with an option for a second satellite providing further
potential.
Growth should build through 2027 and 2028. The initial contribution from
IRIS² and prospective defence contracts should build progressively through
2027 as development and production activity ramp up. FY27e output is
expected at EUR 1,803m (+27% yoy, broadly in line with consensus), with adj.
EBITDA of EUR 214m, implying a margin of 11.9%. Output growth is seen to then
accelerate to 34% in FY28e, with the adj. EBITDA margin reaching 12.7%
(eNuW).
2027 remains an important year for defence awards. OHB targets cumulative
order intake of EUR 5.5bn for 2026/27, excluding SATCOMBw 4, with EUR 2.3bn
already secured this year. SATCOMBw 4 remains the largest potential catalyst,
with anticipated OHB order intake of EUR 5-7bn in H1 2027 (eNuW), adding to
the existing order ambition.
Action: We lower FY26e estimates for slightly softer growth and higher
one-off costs, and FY27e for a more gradual programme ramp-up. FY28
operating estimates remain unchanged.
BUY, PT unchanged at EUR 340, based on DCF.
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Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
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