Original-Research: MLP SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

Original-Research: MLP SE - from NuWays AG

13.11.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST

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Classification of NuWays AG to MLP SE

Company Name: MLP SE

ISIN: DE0006569908

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: BUY

Target price: EUR 14

Target price on sight of: 12 months

Last rating change:

Analyst: Simon Keller

Q3 review: momentum confirmed

MLP's Q3 results confirm the earnings uplift behind October's guidance

increase. EBIT reached EUR 26.7m (Q3 25: EUR 18.3m), driven by higher FERI

performance fees, growth in underlying wealth management and higher net

interest income. The confirmed EUR 110-120m FY26 guidance still looks

conservative, with our EBIT forecast unchanged at EUR 123m. In detail:

Q3 group sales increased 15% yoy to EUR 271.9m, sustaining Q2's growth pace

(+15% yoy). The EBIT margin on total revenue widened by 2pp to 9.5%, mainly

reflecting the higher contribution from FERI's performance fees. Higher

variable compensation at FERI and IT expenses contributed to a 15% increase

in administration costs to EUR 121.4m.

* Higher client assets and interest income support the Wealth business

area. Revenue rose 26% yoy to EUR 161.2m. Of this, wealth management

contributed EUR 127.9m (+34% yoy), including c. EUR 21m of performance fees

(Q3 25: EUR 2.8m). Excluding performance fees, wealth management revenue

still grew c. 15% (eNuW), supported by a 9% higher AuM base of EUR 70.1bn.

This larger asset base should also support recurring management fees

into FY27. Higher interest rates are also lifting returns on banking

assets, with net interest income up c. 12% to EUR 16m. With September's

ECB rate increase to 2.5% only partly reflected in Q3, the full-quarter

effect should provide an additional boost to net interest income in Q4.

* Life & Health's recovery remains uneven. Revenues declined 4% yoy to EUR

66.1m in a seasonally less relevant quarter, following 6% growth in Q2,

as old-age provision revenue fell 7% to EUR 48.6m. At the same time,

health insurance grew 5% to EUR 17.5m, supported by demand for higher

standards of healthcare. On the back of a mixed Q3, MLP now expects flat

FY26 revenue in Life & Health, versus slight growth previously, in line

with eNuW (-0.7% yoy).

* Property & Casualty's premium book supports continued growth. Revenue

grew 9% yoy to EUR 42.1m. Managed non-life premiums increased c. 10% yoy

to EUR 870m, broadly maintaining the growth rate seen at June.

The upper end of guidance still leaves room for outperformance. The EUR 120m

upper end of MLP's FY26 EBIT guidance implies Q4 EBIT of c. EUR 33m, down c.

9% yoy versus last year's EUR 36m adjusted for the goodwill impairment in

Deutschland.Immobilien. The implied decline looks cautious given the larger

recurring fee base and higher interest income. Our unchanged EUR 123m FY26

EBIT forecast implies c. EUR 36m in Q4, broadly matching last year's adjusted

level. Additional FERI performance fees remain a potential source of upside.

Pension reform provides an additional growth opportunity from 2027.

Voluntary transfers of existing Riester savings into the Altersvorsorgedepot

should broaden MLP's recurring fee base. Our estimate of c. EUR 6-7m

incremental annual EBIT by 2028 remains unchanged.

Reiterate BUY with an unchanged EUR 14 PT, based on Residual Income.

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