Opportunity: Starlink-like project for the Bundeswehr, chg.

The strategic rationale is straightforward: this is a two-domain programme to our understanding. It is not “just satellites”, but the combination of (i) space hardware and constellation build-out and (ii) ground-based system integration (secure connectivity across soldiers, vehicles and naval assets). Consequently, pairing a Germany-headquartered satellite prime with Germany’s largest listed defence integrator looks like a rational blueprint with credible win chances, in our view. While Airbus is the incumbent for the predecessor system, its set-up is pan-European with a meaningful footprint outside Germany, which could be a relative disadvantage in a sovereignty-driven programme.

Importantly, this potential project should not be viewed as a one-off development project. Beyond build-out, the constellation requires continuous operations, upgrades and regular satellite replenishment. In fact, for SpaceX’s Starlink, satellite lifetimes are cited at c. 5 years, implying a structural replacement cycle once deployed.

As an end-to-end integrator and in cooperation with Rheinmetall, OHB could capture a meaningfully higher share of Germany’s new space defence investments than our prior c. 20% assumption. A Rheinmetall analogy is instructive: as the system integrator in ground defence, it has captured almost 50% of Germany’s € 100bn special fund (eNuW). There is a credible path for OHB to play a similar integrator role in military space, supporting higher cumulative order intake assumptions for 2026-30e (eNuW: now c.€ 27bn in total) and faster growth from 2027e onwards.

At the same time, OHB’s valuation still appears compelling versus listed space peers, with OHB trading at 3x sales 2026e vs. c.7x for other listed space pure-plays.

News flow should remain supportive, with big-ticket orders likely, Rocket Factory Augsburg (at-equity at OHB) targeting a maiden launch in 2026, and increasing global investor attention on “space”. Profits should keep up with news: we forecast a 30% EPS CAGR into 2030e.

BUY, new PT € 260 (old: € 202), based on DCF.