Looking into FY26: High deal activity expected

Assuming an average valuation uplift of at least 15-20% versus NAV (eNuW), DBAG should be able to generate meaningful income from investment activity. Moreover, the divestment of mature assets and the resulting capital returns would, in our view, create a solid foundation for the launch of a new fund, both in terms of track record and investor confidence.

Raising additional funds. Looking ahead, we believe DBAG could consider raising DBAG IX as a successor to DBAG VIII. The exact timing is likely to depend on the group’s divestment momentum, as a number of existing investors may be inclined to roll over committed capital into a new vintage. A successful fundraise would not only increase DBAG’s financial firepower for future investments but should also provide a structural uplift to fund services earnings. In this context, we estimate an incremental contribution to fund services EBITA of around € 2-3m p.a. reflecting a 15-20% increase (eNuW).

Further, we also see the possibility for a second continuation fund. Mind you, the group’s current continuation fund (single-asset fund to hold an asset beyond the original fund life, while giving LPs a liquidity option), which was launched in 2024 with a volume of € 130m is fully invested, holding the portfolio company Solvares.

Continued high shareholder returns.DBAG also appears well positioned to maintain its shareholder-friendly capital allocation policy. We expect the company to continue paying a base dividend (eNuW: € 1.00 per share, a yield of c. 4%). In addition, DBAG is currently executing a € 20m share buyback program. With roughly six weeks remaining, we estimate that some € 6m could still be outstanding at the end. Given the shares’ persistent and still significant discount to NAV, we would view the launch of a subsequent buyback program as sensible from a capital allocation perspective.

We confirm our BUY rating with an unchanged € 39 PT based on SOTP (DCF for Fund Services + discount to our NAV per share estimate at year-end).