FY25 confirmed, Ammunity growth runway in focus

The year-end order backlog warrants brief context. While the figure may look modest at first glance, relative to some defence primes, lean firm backlogs are not unusual for suppliers of Astor's type, in our view. The clearest evidence is the 2024 starting point: the backlog due in 2025 stood at only SEK 135m, c. 39% of the SEK 345m in sales ultimately generated that year by the businesses already owned at the time (eNuW). Against that reference, the year-end 2025 backlog due in 2026 of SEK 409m, equivalent to c. 63% of our FY26e sales estimate of SEK 650m, reads as a step-up in visibility.

The management transition is a near-term overhang. Following the CFO change announced in January, Astor disclosed in April that CEO Mattias Hjorth will step down, with board member Martin Elovsson set to take over at the AGM on 13 May. The incoming CEO brings internal familiarity and an execution-focused background, which should support operational continuity. That said, any leadership transition carries execution risk, and we expect it to weigh on sentiment until the new team has established credibility with investors. For a group where the growth model is built on acquisitions, management continuity matters across capital allocation, integration discipline and external communication alike.

At the same time, the operational picture remains compelling. Astor is well-positioned across structurally growing defence end-markets, with demand tailwinds that show no signs of fading. The most interesting near-term growth vector is Ammunity, Latvia's only manufacturer of military small-calibre ammunition and the largest private ammunition producer in the Baltics, consolidated from Nov 25. Weeks after closing, Astor committed SEK 92m in capacity investment targeting additional production lines, with the potential to increase annual output up to sixfold over time and a first contribution to sales and profitability from this expansion is expected from H2 26.

The investment case for Ammunity rests on a highly favourable demand environment. Our analysis of Baltic defence procurement puts the annual addressable market for small-calibre ammunition only across Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania already at c. € 60m today. Against that backdrop, Ammunity's current revenue run-rate of c. € 13m (eNuW) already represents a meaningful share of a market that is itself expanding rapidly. As Latvia's sole domestic military-grade small-calibre producer, Ammunity carries a structural competitive advantage that few European peers can replicate. Sales expansion might also benefit from growth in Ukraine and the Nordic market.

Reiterate BUY, unchanged PT of SEK 51, based on a blend of DCF and peer group valuation.