Hey Leute,
Xing ist für mich eine der größten Chancen, die der markt aktuell bietet.
Hatte Sohu seit 7$ und habe jetzt in Xing getauscht! Sohu hat niemals ein KGV von 100! Liegt bei ca. 30! Ist nich mehr so billig, aber im Gegensatz zu Yahoo usw. immer noch billig!
XING
Kursziele mit KGV 20:
2002: ..15$ bei EPS 0.75$/Aktie
2003: ..30$ bei EPS 1.50$/Aktie
2004: 100$ bei EPS 5.00$/Aktie
Umsatz/Handy=1850RMB(226$) | Gewinn/Handy=350RMB(43$) für XIAXIN
Umsatz/Handy=2000RMB(244$) | Gewinn/Handy=378RMB(46$) für CECT (angenommen ist selbe Rendite)
XIAXING und CECT sind Schwesterfirmen, beide aus CET hervorgegangen
XIAXING macht mehr Handys, CECT teurere Handys
Angeblich ist XING der einzige Weg für Investoren, schwerpunktmäßig in chinesische Handyhersteller zu investieren.
XING information sharing by XING trader
XING has 15 million shares out and had 30 million USD sales and a loss of .20 in 2001. That`s why its stock price was so low. However, XING changed greatly in 2002.
XING had not formally reported 2002 result to SEC yet, so you cannot find it in yahoo, but if you do research from the company links ,you will find According to Chinese government, in 2002 XING became the 36th largest electronic company in China and had 3.1 billion RMB revenue and 190 million RMB profit,also paid 130 million tax to government. That`s roughly 370 Million USD revenue and 22 million USD profit, about $1.50/share. There maybe accounting differences between the numbers reported to china government and to SEC,but there could be no doubt,that xing had 6 to 10 times revenue increase and at least a big profit.
The major reason of this change is due to the acquiring of a cellphone company called CECT in 2002.CECT sold 0.8 million cellphones and had a revenue of 160 million RMB. Since CECT has been going for the high end market and has an average price of 2000 RMB for each phone. It should have a large profit margin and should be the major contributor to XING`s 2002`s profit. CECT sold only 60000 phones in 2000, and XING bought CECT in Apr. 2002 and completed all procedures in 2003, we can see XING`s sales channels and new management style really gave CECT a big boost in 2002. Now XING has a sales target of 3.5 million cell phones in 2003. This is 4 times the quantity of 2002 output. But this target is quiet achievable, because
1. this is a full year under XING, 2. China recently reported domestic brand phones sales tripled from Jan to Apr. this year.
XING also announced at end of Apr. that its self-developed short-message phones, internet phones and wireless phones are very well received in the market, and that it expects the sales of fixed line telephone sets in 2003 to grow by 30% over that of 2002. These new phones should also had a better profit margin since they are more expensive than normal phones.
Considering all these and some other factors like xing`s new expensive cellphones, fierce competition in china`s market and in comparison with CECT`s sister company Xiaxin`s 2002 numbers, I reached the idea that XING`s 2003 profit should at least double that of 2002.
As to xing`s reporting time, historically XING just reports once every year and always reported at end of june or July. And this did not prevent it from its stock price to reach 72 before,although I also hope it should report more frequently.
It is the wrong strategy to look at XING`s 99-01 statements (SEC filings). XING is a very unique company. It is unique because the CEO/President of XING is not good in English so are all XING employees except some export / import trade employees and PR person. Apparently XING is on very low budget for its English website and quarterly reporting practise (budget for auditors and accountants). So you do not have quarterly report to look at, you do not have an updated English website to update at. XING made milestone progress since its IPO in 1999. The all out effort of Mr. Wu to get cellular phone manufacture licenses finally come true this February, 2003 by closing the 65% deal of CECT acquisition. With CECT in its wing,
XING`s valuation is now at least $37 million more (acquisition price) and $19.5 million cash (cash equivalent) of 65% of CECT. The 2002 annual sale for CECT is 1.6 billion RMB. 65% of CECT would be US $125.6 million.
Per share equivalent for all those numbers are: (based on 1.5 million shares outstanding)
65% of CECT book value (from acquisition cost): US $2.47 per share
65% of CECT cash per share: $2.00 per share;
65% of CECT 2002 sale per share: $8.37. The earning was estimated ar 1.50 per share according to Chinese government`s E&TC top 100 report published on 4/24/2003 (XING group ranked
#36).
This much added to XING`s IPO price of $5 per share back in 1999. XING already worth: $9.47 book and cash as of the end of 2002.
This is a very conservative number because XING had grown its fixed line telephone business and sold 6 million sets a year in 2002 and was ranked
#2 fixed line phone manufacturer in China in 2002. (compared to 1999, that is a much greater number.) XING`s fixed line telephone business including all of its subsidiary sales is about the same as what 65% of CECT did in 2002 (according to Mr. Wu`s interview report in May with Southern newspaper (Nan-Fan Bao), it did about 50-50 of overall sales to 65% CECT: another ~1.6 billion RMB. Put them together, they did about $14.74 sale in 2002 (all subsidiaries included). After February 2003, XING officially owns 65% CECT. The overall 2003 sales growth compared to 2002 according to Mr. Wu`s recent words (in Chinese) again is 30% increase. That is $19.16 per share estimated 2003 sale.
Now XING`s price target.
If it is based on past (2002) estimated p/e of 20: $30/share is the target.
If it is based on p/e of 30: $45/share
If it is based on p/e of 40: $60/share.
If it is based on 3X p/s: it is $57.48
If it is based on 2X p/s: it is $38.32
If it is based on 1X p/s: it is $19.16
Hence, XING is very cheap at the current price.
XING is bigger than SINA, SOHU & NTES combined by goodgodgd03
If you compare XING with the total annual sales for the trio Chinese internet business in 2002 and also compare (if we can) the total sales for XING and the Chinese internet trio, XING is much more established. (XING`s annual sale figure fit into US fortune 1000 companies easily).
So today NTES and SOHU are all near $38 and SINA is $26.5, there is no reason XING should be trailing so far behind. (market capitalization is only 1/10 of SOHU or NTES and 1/5 of SINA. A quick adjustment will be seen in this market to give XING a fair valuation. I can see XING goes up to as high as $60 and may be settling at $30-$40 in the forseeable future.
Mehr muß man dazu wohl nicht mehr sagen!
PS. Noch ein TIP! Schaut Euch mal HQNT (804391) an. Kurzfristiger verdoppler......
Gruß
XING
