kann die Beschäftigung schneller wachsen, als die Menschen denken und 2011 blüht Amerika wieder.
According to Dimon... "employment may grow faster than people think"... LMAO... in WHAT sectors? "Landscaping"?... now that spring is just around the corner... LMAO!!
02/20/2011 08:35:16 PM EST -- USAToday.com
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon sees good times in 2011
Published Date: February 20, 2011 08:32:00 PM EST
Author: Maria Bartiromo, Special for USA TODAY
Jamie Dimon says the story of 2011 will be America blossoming again. Two years after the financial meltdown, the chairman and CEO of one the top U.S. banks, JPMorgan Chase, (JPM) says businesses have plenty of capital and are starting to expand again. Dimon should know, sitting atop more than $2 trillion in assets and overseeing 230,000 employees. Analyzing his more than 5,000 branches, and 90 million credit cards, Dimon says there are still some weak spots for the economy, such as foreclosures in the pipeline and new regulation which he says will make banking more expensive for customers. Dimon explains some of the higher fees coming your way in my interview, which has been edited for clarity and length.
Q: How do you characterize the economy right now?
A: The economy is getting stronger every day, and I would say it's rather broad-based, and hopefully this will continue. That's true globally. It's good for America when the rest of the world grows, because you can sell more to the rest of the world. Large corporations are in very good shape, have plenty of capital and are starting to expand. But we also see the same thing from middle market-sized companies and small businesses. Our small-business lending is up 37% this year. Other banks are also seeing more loan demand in middle markets and small business.
Q: What about foreclosures in the pipeline? How do you see that playing out, and why hasn't the housing market participated in this recovery?
A: The mortgage pain is just a terrible story. Too many mortgages were badly done. I'm not talking about us. But foreclosures haven't quite peaked yet. We're probably halfway or two-thirds through the problem. And so home prices are still going down a little bit, but have for the most part stabilized. I don't know what they're going to do in the next six months and nine months; we kind of plan for them to go down a little bit. The real story in housing will be a recovery in the economy that will drive a recovery in housing, When people are working, when there are more jobs, more households forming and people go back to buying cars, they're going to want their apartments and homes. And that's when you'll start to see a recovery in home prices.
Q: What about the credit quality of consumers?
A: Credit quality in credit cards got a lot better. Unfortunately mortgages, which have gotten better, are still terrible. But in reality, the consumer is spending. Consumer spending is up about 5% from where it was last year, and the consumer is saving about 5%. If you go back several years ago, their spending was about the same, but they were not saving. So that seems to me to be a stronger consumer.
Q: So a change we've seen since the financial upset two years ago is that people are hoarding more cash?
A: I would be careful about the word "hoarding." Companies and individuals have more cash than they normally have, and maybe that was a little bit out of fear and maybe a little bit because they don't know what to do with it. At corporations, we are starting to see them do stock buybacks, mergers and acquisitions, and pay dividends. And individually you are starting to see people spend more. So people have started to use the excess cash.
Q: Can you talk about the impact of some of the regulatory changes we've seen? The Dodd-Frank financial reform act and the Durbin Interchange Amendment. What changes will consumers feel?
A: The Durbin Amendment basically does not allow us to charge for the cost of a debit card. There is a cost of doing business; you've got to cover your costs. Our costs are ATMs, branches, bankers, systems, statements, online, all that kind of stuff. One of the ways you got paid was by charging on debit, and now that's gone. So banks will have to figure out other ways to charge for their product. Fair prices, not gouging, just fair prices to recover their costs, like any other business. And so the consumer will end up paying more. I don't think the consumer's going to benefit at all from this change.
Q: So what will they pay more for?
A: You're going to see minimum balances go up. Remember many years ago, you had monthly fees. You might see monthly fees come back. You're going to see reward programs be cut, like debit reward programs. You may even see some limit the use of debit cards. And we want to do it in a way that's consumer-friendly. But it will be done for general banking. We have decided to look at all options. We want to make sure we treat our customers well, but somehow we're going to have to find other ways to recover our costs.
Q: Do you think we'll see changes to Dodd-Frank?
A: It's the law of the land. There are a lot of questions that haven't been worked out. It's going to just be looked at, reanalyzed. Maybe they'll be a little bit of a modification, tweaking. I don't think we will see a wholesale replacement of Dodd-Frank. There are several things in Dodd-Frank we think are very counterproductive.
Q: Like what?
A: Well, the Durbin Amendment, the spinning out of the derivatives business, we think actually makes the system riskier. But we supported a lot of the regulation. When people say we fought regulation, no, we did not. We supported higher capital liquidity standards; we supported resolution authority; we supported standardized derivatives going to exchanges. What we didn't support was an independent agency we thought should've been part of another agency (in the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau). We have too many regulators in this country. We should have fewer regulators but with real authorities.
The government has the right to change laws and rules and regulations. There were serious problems that happened, and serious things needed to be changed. We completely agree with all that. But the devil's in the details sometimes, and the details are what we're still trying to figure out. We have to ask ourselves: Can we service our clients in the same way, or are their costs going to go up? I would say it was done so quickly and there's so much that was done, and it wasn't done with deep knowledge of what was being done. You have a 2,000-page bill and we're still trying to figure out what some of the things mean.
Q: Are there policies that should be changed to encourage companies to hire more workers?
A: It may be true that some people aren't hiring because of regulation, but for most people, it's really that they need to see a better order book to hire. And you don't need to change regulation to have a growing economy. Clearly, if there's too much regulation, that would be bad. For us, we hired 8,000 people in the U.S. last year. We have to deal with a tremendous amount of regulation, but it's not going to stop us from opening a branch somewhere.
Q: Is the corporate story one of the best parts of the economic recovery?
A: Those large corporations have a lot of money and are borrowing. High-yield bonds had a very good year last year. The rates are almost at historical lows. The markets are wide open. Financial conditions are easing. Even middle market loans. This is mostly private companies, not small business, a little bit bigger. We've seen the last couple quarters going up. They've been coming down for years. It's a good sign, and I gather that a lot of other banks saw the same thing.
Q: You're seeing companies increasingly derive more and more revenue from areas like China, India and Brazil because that's where the growth is. Is it fair to say that's basically going to be the story of 2011, the way it was of 2010?
A: No. I hope the story of 2011 is that America gets its mojo back. You've got to remember that America has the best universities; it's got some of the best businesses. It's got an unbelievable work ethic, rule of law. The story of 2011 will be America blossoming again.
Q: How?
A: Business, growth, jobs, technology. It's broad-based. There's not going to be one thing. We're applying technology every day in a hundred different ways. For example, you go to an iPhone app and you can deposit checks by iPhone now, by taking a picture of both sides.
Q: Is this a multiyear recovery? Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said it's going to take several years before employment levels get back or stabilize.
A: People may be surprised. Employment may grow faster than people think.
Q: Are there other red flags that you're watching closely in terms of recovery, other than housing and foreclosures?
A: One of the biggest red flags that's always there is geopolitics. It's there even when you're not thinking about it, because it can always surprise you. Obviously you're seeing that a little bit with Egypt. But that's always there, and it can always be in a way you don't expect it.
We watch trade closely and trade policy, and there's still a lot of fiscal monetary stimulation out there. Maybe rates can go up faster than people expect and be a negative.
Q: So what is your view of the Fed's QE2 program?
A: I can't think of why it wouldn't be helpful. While it does create a little uncertainty, I can't see why it would reduce growth. And we need growth. And I know there are future fears about inflation, but with high unemployment and low capacity utilization, that shouldn't be our No. 1 fear. What we need is growth and jobs. So it's helping. Ben Bernanke has done an outstanding job, and I have a lot of faith he'll continue to do that, including, remove some of the QE when the time is right.
02/20/2011 08:35:16 PM EST -- USAToday.com
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon sees good times in 2011
Published Date: February 20, 2011 08:32:00 PM EST
Author: Maria Bartiromo, Special for USA TODAY
Jamie Dimon says the story of 2011 will be America blossoming again. Two years after the financial meltdown, the chairman and CEO of one the top U.S. banks, JPMorgan Chase, (JPM) says businesses have plenty of capital and are starting to expand again. Dimon should know, sitting atop more than $2 trillion in assets and overseeing 230,000 employees. Analyzing his more than 5,000 branches, and 90 million credit cards, Dimon says there are still some weak spots for the economy, such as foreclosures in the pipeline and new regulation which he says will make banking more expensive for customers. Dimon explains some of the higher fees coming your way in my interview, which has been edited for clarity and length.
Q: How do you characterize the economy right now?
A: The economy is getting stronger every day, and I would say it's rather broad-based, and hopefully this will continue. That's true globally. It's good for America when the rest of the world grows, because you can sell more to the rest of the world. Large corporations are in very good shape, have plenty of capital and are starting to expand. But we also see the same thing from middle market-sized companies and small businesses. Our small-business lending is up 37% this year. Other banks are also seeing more loan demand in middle markets and small business.
Q: What about foreclosures in the pipeline? How do you see that playing out, and why hasn't the housing market participated in this recovery?
A: The mortgage pain is just a terrible story. Too many mortgages were badly done. I'm not talking about us. But foreclosures haven't quite peaked yet. We're probably halfway or two-thirds through the problem. And so home prices are still going down a little bit, but have for the most part stabilized. I don't know what they're going to do in the next six months and nine months; we kind of plan for them to go down a little bit. The real story in housing will be a recovery in the economy that will drive a recovery in housing, When people are working, when there are more jobs, more households forming and people go back to buying cars, they're going to want their apartments and homes. And that's when you'll start to see a recovery in home prices.
Q: What about the credit quality of consumers?
A: Credit quality in credit cards got a lot better. Unfortunately mortgages, which have gotten better, are still terrible. But in reality, the consumer is spending. Consumer spending is up about 5% from where it was last year, and the consumer is saving about 5%. If you go back several years ago, their spending was about the same, but they were not saving. So that seems to me to be a stronger consumer.
Q: So a change we've seen since the financial upset two years ago is that people are hoarding more cash?
A: I would be careful about the word "hoarding." Companies and individuals have more cash than they normally have, and maybe that was a little bit out of fear and maybe a little bit because they don't know what to do with it. At corporations, we are starting to see them do stock buybacks, mergers and acquisitions, and pay dividends. And individually you are starting to see people spend more. So people have started to use the excess cash.
Q: Can you talk about the impact of some of the regulatory changes we've seen? The Dodd-Frank financial reform act and the Durbin Interchange Amendment. What changes will consumers feel?
A: The Durbin Amendment basically does not allow us to charge for the cost of a debit card. There is a cost of doing business; you've got to cover your costs. Our costs are ATMs, branches, bankers, systems, statements, online, all that kind of stuff. One of the ways you got paid was by charging on debit, and now that's gone. So banks will have to figure out other ways to charge for their product. Fair prices, not gouging, just fair prices to recover their costs, like any other business. And so the consumer will end up paying more. I don't think the consumer's going to benefit at all from this change.
Q: So what will they pay more for?
A: You're going to see minimum balances go up. Remember many years ago, you had monthly fees. You might see monthly fees come back. You're going to see reward programs be cut, like debit reward programs. You may even see some limit the use of debit cards. And we want to do it in a way that's consumer-friendly. But it will be done for general banking. We have decided to look at all options. We want to make sure we treat our customers well, but somehow we're going to have to find other ways to recover our costs.
Q: Do you think we'll see changes to Dodd-Frank?
A: It's the law of the land. There are a lot of questions that haven't been worked out. It's going to just be looked at, reanalyzed. Maybe they'll be a little bit of a modification, tweaking. I don't think we will see a wholesale replacement of Dodd-Frank. There are several things in Dodd-Frank we think are very counterproductive.
Q: Like what?
A: Well, the Durbin Amendment, the spinning out of the derivatives business, we think actually makes the system riskier. But we supported a lot of the regulation. When people say we fought regulation, no, we did not. We supported higher capital liquidity standards; we supported resolution authority; we supported standardized derivatives going to exchanges. What we didn't support was an independent agency we thought should've been part of another agency (in the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau). We have too many regulators in this country. We should have fewer regulators but with real authorities.
The government has the right to change laws and rules and regulations. There were serious problems that happened, and serious things needed to be changed. We completely agree with all that. But the devil's in the details sometimes, and the details are what we're still trying to figure out. We have to ask ourselves: Can we service our clients in the same way, or are their costs going to go up? I would say it was done so quickly and there's so much that was done, and it wasn't done with deep knowledge of what was being done. You have a 2,000-page bill and we're still trying to figure out what some of the things mean.
Q: Are there policies that should be changed to encourage companies to hire more workers?
A: It may be true that some people aren't hiring because of regulation, but for most people, it's really that they need to see a better order book to hire. And you don't need to change regulation to have a growing economy. Clearly, if there's too much regulation, that would be bad. For us, we hired 8,000 people in the U.S. last year. We have to deal with a tremendous amount of regulation, but it's not going to stop us from opening a branch somewhere.
Q: Is the corporate story one of the best parts of the economic recovery?
A: Those large corporations have a lot of money and are borrowing. High-yield bonds had a very good year last year. The rates are almost at historical lows. The markets are wide open. Financial conditions are easing. Even middle market loans. This is mostly private companies, not small business, a little bit bigger. We've seen the last couple quarters going up. They've been coming down for years. It's a good sign, and I gather that a lot of other banks saw the same thing.
Q: You're seeing companies increasingly derive more and more revenue from areas like China, India and Brazil because that's where the growth is. Is it fair to say that's basically going to be the story of 2011, the way it was of 2010?
A: No. I hope the story of 2011 is that America gets its mojo back. You've got to remember that America has the best universities; it's got some of the best businesses. It's got an unbelievable work ethic, rule of law. The story of 2011 will be America blossoming again.
Q: How?
A: Business, growth, jobs, technology. It's broad-based. There's not going to be one thing. We're applying technology every day in a hundred different ways. For example, you go to an iPhone app and you can deposit checks by iPhone now, by taking a picture of both sides.
Q: Is this a multiyear recovery? Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said it's going to take several years before employment levels get back or stabilize.
A: People may be surprised. Employment may grow faster than people think.
Q: Are there other red flags that you're watching closely in terms of recovery, other than housing and foreclosures?
A: One of the biggest red flags that's always there is geopolitics. It's there even when you're not thinking about it, because it can always surprise you. Obviously you're seeing that a little bit with Egypt. But that's always there, and it can always be in a way you don't expect it.
We watch trade closely and trade policy, and there's still a lot of fiscal monetary stimulation out there. Maybe rates can go up faster than people expect and be a negative.
Q: So what is your view of the Fed's QE2 program?
A: I can't think of why it wouldn't be helpful. While it does create a little uncertainty, I can't see why it would reduce growth. And we need growth. And I know there are future fears about inflation, but with high unemployment and low capacity utilization, that shouldn't be our No. 1 fear. What we need is growth and jobs. So it's helping. Ben Bernanke has done an outstanding job, and I have a lot of faith he'll continue to do that, including, remove some of the QE when the time is right.
02/20/2011 08:35:16 PM EST -- USAToday.com
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon sees good times in 2011
Published Date: February 20, 2011 08:32:00 PM EST
Author: Maria Bartiromo, Special for USA TODAY
Jamie Dimon says the story of 2011 will be America blossoming again. Two years after the financial meltdown, the chairman and CEO of one the top U.S. banks, JPMorgan Chase, (JPM) says businesses have plenty of capital and are starting to expand again. Dimon should know, sitting atop more than $2 trillion in assets and overseeing 230,000 employees. Analyzing his more than 5,000 branches, and 90 million credit cards, Dimon says there are still some weak spots for the economy, such as foreclosures in the pipeline and new regulation which he says will make banking more expensive for customers. Dimon explains some of the higher fees coming your way in my interview, which has been edited for clarity and length.
Q: How do you characterize the economy right now?
A: The economy is getting stronger every day, and I would say it's rather broad-based, and hopefully this will continue. That's true globally. It's good for America when the rest of the world grows, because you can sell more to the rest of the world. Large corporations are in very good shape, have plenty of capital and are starting to expand. But we also see the same thing from middle market-sized companies and small businesses. Our small-business lending is up 37% this year. Other banks are also seeing more loan demand in middle markets and small business.
Q: What about foreclosures in the pipeline? How do you see that playing out, and why hasn't the housing market participated in this recovery?
A: The mortgage pain is just a terrible story. Too many mortgages were badly done. I'm not talking about us. But foreclosures haven't quite peaked yet. We're probably halfway or two-thirds through the problem. And so home prices are still going down a little bit, but have for the most part stabilized. I don't know what they're going to do in the next six months and nine months; we kind of plan for them to go down a little bit. The real story in housing will be a recovery in the economy that will drive a recovery in housing, When people are working, when there are more jobs, more households forming and people go back to buying cars, they're going to want their apartments and homes. And that's when you'll start to see a recovery in home prices.
Q: What about the credit quality of consumers?
A: Credit quality in credit cards got a lot better. Unfortunately mortgages, which have gotten better, are still terrible. But in reality, the consumer is spending. Consumer spending is up about 5% from where it was last year, and the consumer is saving about 5%. If you go back several years ago, their spending was about the same, but they were not saving. So that seems to me to be a stronger consumer.
Q: So a change we've seen since the financial upset two years ago is that people are hoarding more cash?
A: I would be careful about the word "hoarding." Companies and individuals have more cash than they normally have, and maybe that was a little bit out of fear and maybe a little bit because they don't know what to do with it. At corporations, we are starting to see them do stock buybacks, mergers and acquisitions, and pay dividends. And individually you are starting to see people spend more. So people have started to use the excess cash.
Q: Can you talk about the impact of some of the regulatory changes we've seen? The Dodd-Frank financial reform act and the Durbin Interchange Amendment. What changes will consumers feel?
A: The Durbin Amendment basically does not allow us to charge for the cost of a debit card. There is a cost of doing business; you've got to cover your costs. Our costs are ATMs, branches, bankers, systems, statements, online, all that kind of stuff. One of the ways you got paid was by charging on debit, and now that's gone. So banks will have to figure out other ways to charge for their product. Fair prices, not gouging, just fair prices to recover their costs, like any other business. And so the consumer will end up paying more. I don't think the consumer's going to benefit at all from this change.
Q: So what will they pay more for?
A: You're going to see minimum balances go up. Remember many years ago, you had monthly fees. You might see monthly fees come back. You're going to see reward programs be cut, like debit reward programs. You may even see some limit the use of debit cards. And we want to do it in a way that's consumer-friendly. But it will be done for general banking. We have decided to look at all options. We want to make sure we treat our customers well, but somehow we're going to have to find other ways to recover our costs.
Q: Do you think we'll see changes to Dodd-Frank?
A: It's the law of the land. There are a lot of questions that haven't been worked out. It's going to just be looked at, reanalyzed. Maybe they'll be a little bit of a modification, tweaking. I don't think we will see a wholesale replacement of Dodd-Frank. There are several things in Dodd-Frank we think are very counterproductive.
Q: Like what?
A: Well, the Durbin Amendment, the spinning out of the derivatives business, we think actually makes the system riskier. But we supported a lot of the regulation. When people say we fought regulation, no, we did not. We supported higher capital liquidity standards; we supported resolution authority; we supported standardized derivatives going to exchanges. What we didn't support was an independent agency we thought should've been part of another agency (in the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau). We have too many regulators in this country. We should have fewer regulators but with real authorities.
The government has the right to change laws and rules and regulations. There were serious problems that happened, and serious things needed to be changed. We completely agree with all that. But the devil's in the details sometimes, and the details are what we're still trying to figure out. We have to ask ourselves: Can we service our clients in the same way, or are their costs going to go up? I would say it was done so quickly and there's so much that was done, and it wasn't done with deep knowledge of what was being done. You have a 2,000-page bill and we're still trying to figure out what some of the things mean.
Q: Are there policies that should be changed to encourage companies to hire more workers?
A: It may be true that some people aren't hiring because of regulation, but for most people, it's really that they need to see a better order book to hire. And you don't need to change regulation to have a growing economy. Clearly, if there's too much regulation, that would be bad. For us, we hired 8,000 people in the U.S. last year. We have to deal with a tremendous amount of regulation, but it's not going to stop us from opening a branch somewhere.
Q: Is the corporate story one of the best parts of the economic recovery?
A: Those large corporations have a lot of money and are borrowing. High-yield bonds had a very good year last year. The rates are almost at historical lows. The markets are wide open. Financial conditions are easing. Even middle market loans. This is mostly private companies, not small business, a little bit bigger. We've seen the last couple quarters going up. They've been coming down for years. It's a good sign, and I gather that a lot of other banks saw the same thing.
Q: You're seeing companies increasingly derive more and more revenue from areas like China, India and Brazil because that's where the growth is. Is it fair to say that's basically going to be the story of 2011, the way it was of 2010?
A: No. I hope the story of 2011 is that America gets its mojo back. You've got to remember that America has the best universities; it's got some of the best businesses. It's got an unbelievable work ethic, rule of law. The story of 2011 will be America blossoming again.
Q: How?
A: Business, growth, jobs, technology. It's broad-based. There's not going to be one thing. We're applying technology every day in a hundred different ways. For example, you go to an iPhone app and you can deposit checks by iPhone now, by taking a picture of both sides.
Q: Is this a multiyear recovery? Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said it's going to take several years before employment levels get back or stabilize.
A: People may be surprised. Employment may grow faster than people think.
Q: Are there other red flags that you're watching closely in terms of recovery, other than housing and foreclosures?
A: One of the biggest red flags that's always there is geopolitics. It's there even when you're not thinking about it, because it can always surprise you. Obviously you're seeing that a little bit with Egypt. But that's always there, and it can always be in a way you don't expect it.
We watch trade closely and trade policy, and there's still a lot of fiscal monetary stimulation out there. Maybe rates can go up faster than people expect and be a negative.
Q: So what is your view of the Fed's QE2 program?
A: I can't think of why it wouldn't be helpful. While it does create a little uncertainty, I can't see why it would reduce growth. And we need growth. And I know there are future fears about inflation, but with high unemployment and low capacity utilization, that shouldn't be our No. 1 fear. What we need is growth and jobs. So it's helping. Ben Bernanke has done an outstanding job, and I have a lot of faith he'll continue to do that, including, remove some of the QE when the time is right.
JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon says "employment may grow faster than people think."
By Jennifer S. Altman for USA TODAY
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