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Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing Servus, J.B.
Tenth District manufacturing activity rebounded strongly in April, and expectations for future factory activity remained high following a strong increase last month. The price indexes in the survey were largely unchanged, with raw materials price indexes easing somewhat and finished goods price indexes rising only slightly.
The net percentage of firms reporting month-over-month increases in production in April was 26, up from 8 in March and 18 in February (Tables 1 & 2, Chart). Production accelerated especially among durable-goods-producing plants. The overall year-over-year production index also increased from 20 to 28, while the future production index remained unchanged after posting a strong gain last month.
The majority of other month-over-month indexes also increased solidly in April. The shipments index jumped from 0 to 25, and the new orders, order backlog, and employment indexes also increased after dropping in March. The new orders for exports index rebounded after reaching a two-year low last month. In contrast, the supplier delivery time index edged down slightly. The raw materials inventory index decreased from 9 to 3, and the finished goods inventory index also fell after rising in March.
Most other year-over-year indexes rebounded in April. The shipments index increased from 12 to 33, and the new orders, order backlog, and employment indexes all posted solid gains after a sharp decline last month. The capital expenditures index edged up from 24 to 27, and the supplier delivery time index rose after reaching a two-year low in March. The raw materials inventory index declined for the third straight month, and the finished goods inventory index also fell from an all-time high last month.
Other future factory activity indexes remained strong or eased only slightly. The future shipments index edged down from 44 to 42 after a sharp increase in March. The future capital expenditures index was generally unchanged, and the future employment and supplier delivery time indexes dropped marginally. The future new orders index increased for the third straight month, and the future order backlog and new orders for exports indexes also climbed higher. In contrast, both future inventory indexes decreased sharply, with the materials inventory index at a four-year low.
Price indexes in the survey were mixed but largely unchanged, with raw materials and finished goods prices mostly moving in different directions. The month-over-month raw materials price index edged down from 38 to 36, but the finished goods price index rose slightly after posting a two-year low. The future raw materials price index declined from 66 to 54, while the future finished goods price index was unchanged. The year-over-year raw materials price index remained stable, while the finished goods price index increased from 47 to 60.
