Uran Forum

da zeigt es sich mal wieder: Die Dickschiffe erreichen als erste wieder die alten Hochs, während die zweite und dritte Reihe hiervon noch meilenweit (30-50%) entfernt ist.

es gibt kein Angebotsdefizit, keiner weiß wo genau das Zeug herkommt, aber es ist noch jede Menge da und die Nachfrage wächst in den nächsten Jahren nur sehr langsam.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1LdvAxOw5VA

European Parliament calls for Russia sanctions to include nuclear
8 February 2023

The European Parliament has adopted a resolution urging European Union (EU) leaders to extend the sanctions against Russia introduced as a result of the war with Ukraine to include nuclear energy. The motion, was adopted by 489 votes to 36, with 49 abstentions.

(...)

However, EU sanctions have to be approved unanimously by its 27 member countries, and Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban has already made it clear that Hungary will veto any attempt to impose sanctions on nuclear energy. Hungary has plans for two new Russian reactors at its existing Paks nuclear power plant, which gets its nuclear fuel from Russia.

Following an EU-Ukraine summit in Kyiv, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at a press conference with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky promised more stringent measures on the oil industry. However, she did not mention the nuclear industry. Von der Leyen said a 10th sanctions package will be agreed by 24 February, the first anniversary of Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine.

www.neimagazine.com/news/...tions-to-include-nuclear-10576973

EU Parlament möchte, Ungarn lehnt ab und UvdL spricht erst einmal auch nicht von Sanktionen gegen die russische Atomindustrie. Aber die Gemengelage kann sich ja bekanntlich in Sachen Ukraine sehr schnell drehen.

ein paar Auszüge daraus:

" … the industry saw about 113 million pounds in long-term contracting in 2022

.....In 2022, utilities bought 8 million pounds in the spot market. So term contracting is going up, spot market purchasing actually went down. They were 13% of the spot market...

… Well, yes, Greg, we – it kind of goes back to that that pipeline conversation we keep having, we were amused here at Cameco just a couple of weeks ago when one of the trade reporters kind of characterized the market activity as being slow. And we’ve got a marketing team who just kind of sat around and looked at each other and said, which market is slow, like we are not seeing it at all. So perhaps we just have more of a view and a better view into the market than some of the trade reporters do. I think people could forgive me for saying it might start feeling like the summer of 2010 again, a big new entrant stepping into the market, tying up Western capacity, while others have not moved to fill those requirements.

Der 2. Teil der Inkai-Lieferung ist auch angekommen:
.... Our second shipment relating to our 2022 purchases is through to the port of Courtney already and might even be loaded on the boat to make the trip across. ...

Das komplette Transkript:
finance.yahoo.com/news/...poration-nyse-ccj-q4-193040484.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qFMfsaUxjj0&t=302s

hier gibt es Antworten auf das Warren Irwin Video

twitter.com/PraiseKek/status/...&t=HQjDhUI3_5pN3S-mrxZidA

seine sehr zurückhaltende Nachfrageprognose war mir ohnehin nicht einsichtig. Bleibt noch das Problem mit den jetzigen Lagerbeständen. Einer schreibt da, dass U nicht Soja oder sonst was wäre, denn es sei jedes Pfund Uran dokumentiert. Ich kenne aber keine Übersicht, wieviel wo eingelagert ist.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T59xn6r-Wxs       Uranpreis von 50 USD auf 150 USD? Uranchartanalyse

in 2023 and beyond, which is ultimately supportive of uranium miners. Further, "available for sale" uranium inventories have mostly been sold and may likely not act as a significant source of secondary supply as in the past couple of years ...."

Quelle aus dem Tweet:

" Western uranium conversion on an expansion drive.
-ConverDyn restarts in 2023
-Port Hope increase in production in 2024
-Continued ramp up of Philippe Coste plant to 2024

Will lead to overfeeding and significantly higher uranium demand "

twitter.com/hchris999/status/1624528854164406273

offiziellen Daten der WNA zu den Umwandlungskapazitäten (Updated January 2022):
world-nuclear.org/information-library/...nd-deconversion.aspx

Irgendwoher muss das benötigte Uran für die massiven Steigerung der Umwandlungskapazitäten (+Overfeeding) ja kommen !

So wird auch bald der nächste Schritt in der Preiserhöhungkette (umgekehrt der Brennstoffherstellungskette) erfolgen:
Zuerst war die Anreicherung dran, dann die Umwandlung und als nächstes dann der Rohstoff/Uran, die U-Minen dran (Producer => Developer=> Explorer ? ).

(WNA, link oben)

" Secondary sources of conversion supply

Secondary supply of equivalent conversion services includes UF6 material from commercial and government inventories, enricher underfeeding, and DU tails recovery. Uranium and plutonium recycle effectively adds to this. All these were estimated at 26,000 tU in 2013 but with the end of the Russian HEU supply to the USA, they are now much less – estimated to be about 9000 tU in 2021. By 2030 they are expected to be less than 5000 tU "

AEE.AX
Transformational Agreements finalised in Mauritania for Tiris Project
hotcopper.com.au/threads/...is-project-in-mauritania.7206283/

FUU.V ca. 20%
ceo.ca/@newsfile/...hits-65535-cps-in-30m-stepout-and-expands

DMX.V           Media Reports to Lift the Uranium Moratorium in Sweden
ceo.ca/@newsfile/...ments-on-recent-media-reports-to-lift-the

ceo.ca/@newsfile/...lies-for-mineral-license-that-encompasses

stammt offensichtlich aus dem " Sprott Uranium Report-Uranium‘s January Jump"
Friday, February 10, 2023

" U.S. Restart of ConverDyn in 2023

A key development expected in the first half of 2023 is the restart of the U.S.’s only domestic conversion facility, ConverDyn. This shift to Western conversion and a lack of enrichment capacity is the bottleneck for higher uranium demand. Once new conversion capacity comes online, we anticipate an industry shift from underfeeding to overfeeding (using more UF6 as feedstock to produce more enriched uranium) should significantly increase uranium demand in 2023 and beyond, which is ultimately supportive of uranium miners. Further, “available for sale” uranium inventories have mostly been sold and may likely not act as a significant source of secondary supply as in the past couple of years. ..."

sprott.com/insights/...d=77c9b0b9-4da9-ed11-aad0-0022483d058c

vergangene Woche:

Spotmarkt:
" The week saw a total of six transactions concluded totalling 700,000lbs U3O8. The buyers were all either traders or financial entities, industry consultant TradeTech reports, and all transactions were concluded at US$50.50/lb."

Terminmarkt:
" New demand otherwise emerged last week in term markets, TradeTech reports. Beyond the open term demand that is visible through formal Requests for Proposals there are numerous off-market discussions underway. In addition to these formal RFPs, several utilities are engaged in off-market discussions with potential suppliers. "

www.fnarena.com/index.php/2023/02/14/...week-sprott-fired-up/

auf dem Spotmarkt letzte Woche hat SPUT 400.000 lbs gekauft.

Selenskyj fordert nun wieder verstärkt ein Vorgehen gegen die Russische Atombranche. (Stand heute im Focus)

Mal sehen was/ob da was rauskommt.

und Erläuterungen zum Contracting-Cycle von Cameco (09.02.2023):

" Long-term contracting creates full-cycle value for proven productive assets

Like other commodities, the demand for uranium is cyclical. However, unlike other commodities, uranium is not traded in meaningful quantities on a commodity exchange. The uranium market is principally based on bilaterally negotiated long-term contracts covering the annual run-rate requirements of nuclear power plants, with a small spot market to serve discretionary demand. History demonstrates that in general, when prices are rising and high, uranium is perceived as scarce, and more contracting activity takes place with proven and reliable suppliers. The higher demand discovered during this contracting cycle drive investment in higher-cost sources of production, which due to lengthy development timelines, tend to miss the contracting cycle and ramp up after demand has already been won by proven producers. The new uncommitted supply exposed to the small, discretionary spot market puts downward pressure on price and can create the perception that uranium is abundant, potentially resulting in a failure of long-term price signals. When prices are declining and low, there is no perceived urgency to contract, and contracting activity and investment in new supply dramatically decreases. After years of low prices, and a lack of investment in supply, and as the uncommitted material available in the spot market begins to thin, security-of-supply tends to overtake price concerns. Utilities typically re-enter the long-term contracting market to ensure they have a reliable future supply of uranium to run their reactors.

UxC reports that over the last five years approximately 430 million pounds U3O8equivalent have been locked-up in the long-term market, while approximately 775 million pounds U3O8equivalent have been consumed in reactors. We remain confident that utilities have a growing gap to fill.
We believe the current backlog of long-term contracting presents a substantial opportunity for proven and reliable suppliers.with tier-one productive capacity and a record of honoring supply commitments. As a low-cost producer, we manage our operations to increase value throughout these price cycles.

In our industry, customers do not come to the market right before they need to load nuclear fuel into their reactors. To operate a reactor that could run for more than 60 years, natural uranium and the downstream services have to be purchased years in advance, allowing time for a number of processing steps before a finished fuel bundle arrives at the power plant. At present, we believe there is a significant amount of uranium that needs to be contracted to keep reactors running into the next decade.
UxC estimates that cumulative uncovered requirements are about 2.3 billion pounds to the end of 2040. With the lack of investment over the past decade, there is growing uncertainty about where uranium will come from to satisfy growing demand, and utilities are becoming increasingly concerned about the availability of material to meet their long-term needs. In addition, secondary supplies have diminished, and the material available in the spot market has thinned as producers and financial
funds continue to purchase material. Furthermore, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February has given rise to a geopolitical realignment in energy markets that is causing some utilities to seek nuclear fuel suppliers whose values are aligned with their own or whose origin of supply better protects them from potential interruptions, including from transportation challenges or the
possible imposition of formal sanctions. ...."

S.14/15 (166):

s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/...CO-2022-Q4-MDA-FS-and-Notes.pdf

"
BlackRock eyes potential nuclear ETF launch

Fund giant’s sustainable ETF range to grow with greater clarity on the EU’s taxonomy

By Theo Andrew
14 Feb 2023 "

Video selbst noch nicht geschaut

www.etfstream.com/news/...-eyes-potential-nuclear-etf-launch/

Ein aktueller und ausführlicher Bericht von Bloomberg:

"Russia’s Grip on Nuclear-Power Trade Is Only Getting Stronger"

www.bnnbloomberg.ca/...ade-is-only-getting-stronger-1.1883620

in Bedrängnis.Sie erhielten heute eine Klageschrift von Umweltschützern.Zum Glück keine im Depot !

Niger blockiert kanadische Uranmine nach Klage
Von AFP - Agence France Presse
14. Februar 2023
Ein Gericht im westafrikanischen Bundesstaat Niger hat eine uranische Urmine im Norden des Landes angewiesen, den Betrieb auszusetzen, nachdem Umweltschützer eine Klage eingereicht hatten, teilte eine gerichtliche Quelle AFP am Dienstag mit.

Ein Gericht in Agadez erließ in einem am Montag erlassenen Urteil die Aussetzung gegen das Bergbauunternehmen SOMIDA, das sich mehrheitlich im Besitz des kanadischen Global Atomic befindet und im vergangenen November symbolisch am nahe gelegenen Standort den Spatenstich beschritt.

Ein Kollektiv ziviler Organisationen bat das Gericht im Januar um erneute Umweltverträglichkeitsstudien, von denen es behauptete, dass sie "Slapdash" seien und ohne ausreichende Konsultation der Bewohner durchgeführt wurden.

Niger ist eine der weltweit größten Uranquellen, die Nationen weltweit als Quelle für Kernenergie suchen, die die Abhängigkeit von fossilen Brennstoffen verringern könnte.

Aber Sicherheitsängste und Umweltbedenken hinsichtlich der Entsorgung giftiger Atommüll bleiben bestehen, was bedeutet, dass der verarmte und Binnenstaat der Sahelzone noch keinen Boom im Bergbau erlebt hat.

Global Atomic besitzt 80 Prozent von SOMIDA, während der Staat Niger 20 Prozent besitzt.

www.barrons.com/news/...n-uranium-mine-after-lawsuit-9d2bc834

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hsHEaFnseec

Sprott increasing the ATM by ‘another’ US$1.3 billion for Sput ;)

twitter.com/cycleinvestor/status/...;t=tZ7rFdwoUWNqBts4h6_b1Q

Danke, hab`s schon gelesen ;-)

Noch ein neuer Gesetzentwurf gegen russisches Uran ( H.R.1042):

" Republicans Introduce Bill To Ban Russian Uranium
February 15, 2023 "
thedeepdive.ca/...cans-introduce-bill-to-ban-russian-uranium/

So wie ich das verstanden habe ist das die Erweiterung, die schon länger geplant war:

(www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/...uity-Program.html)

J. Quakes dazu:
" Of the $3.5B in the Base Shelf Prospectus, only $2.2B had been allocated to the ATM agreement with broker dealers. That $2.2B has almost all been issued thru the ATM so it had to be increased, which Sprott has now done to the full $3.5B prospectus limit."

Darüber haben wir uns schon mal unterhalten:   #2238 - #2240