How undervalued is the entire uranium sector at the moment (update)?
Investing
Hi everyone,
The Combined Market cap of the ENTIRE uranium sector today (March 1st, 2022 after ASX stock exchange closing and before the opening of the US and CAD stock exchange of March 1st, 2022, and after 2days of important share price increases in uranium company stocks) is only ~36.50 billion USD!! (Thank you Stokdog on twitter for the update of the Combined Market Cap)
How undervalued is the entire uranium sector at the moment (an update)?
Different ways to look at it.
Here are 2 ways:
The combined market cap of the ENTIRE uranium sector today (~36.50 billion USD) =
- 4.0% of the market cap of Tesla (900 billion USD)
- 6.4% of the market cap of Meta Platforms (Facebook) (574 billion USD)
- 2.3% of the market cap of Amazon (1563 billion USD)
- 2.0% of the market cap of Alphabet (Google) (1783 billion USD)
- 1.6% of the market cap of Saudi Arabian Oil Co. (Saudi Aramco) (2217 billion USD)
- 22.5% of the market cap of Petrochina (162 billion USD)
- 47.4% of the market cap of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp (77 billion USD)
- 11.0% of the market cap of Exxon Mobil Corp (332 billion USD)
- 13.0% of the market cap of Chevron Corp (280 billion USD)
- 18.3% of the market cap of Shell (200 billion USD)
- 39.2% of the market cap of Petrobras (93 billion USD)
- 1.1% of the combined market cap of the 7 oil companies mentioned above (3361 billion USD) !!
- 30.4% of the market cap of Boeing (120 billion USD)
- 0.20% of the market cap of all sustainable investing assets in 2020 in the USA (17100 billion USD)!!!
Yet, Nuclear energy now provides about 10% of the world’s electricity. Nuclear energy is the world's second largest source of low-carbon power (28% of the total in 2020). And USA, Canada, France, UK, ... are clearly saying they will continue and build more reactor plants:
- FRANCE:
https://www.politico.eu/article/...ing-nuclear-to-boost-independence/https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/...ar-heavy-energy-plan/- UK:
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/...clear-power-stations.html- USA:
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/...-nuclear-power-plants-2021-09-13/Even Japan:
https://www.cnet.com/news/...to-restart-nuclear-power-in-the-country/- China:
https://www.reddit.com/r/UraniumSqueeze/comments/...ce_china_massive/And India, Pakistan, Russia, United Arab Emirates, Turkey, ... are already building many reactors as well to increase the share of nuclear power in their energy mix.
2) The combined market cap of the ENTIRE uranium sector today (~36.50 billion USD) compared to a combined market cap of ~150 billion USD it had in 2011
A couple years (2022-2024, but it could happen much sooner) from now we will most probably reach a Combined Market Cap of at least 200 billion USD (imo), if you take in consideration :
- Inflation since 2011;
- The structural fast growing uranium deficit starting 2025/2026 ( a LT uranium price of 60+ USD/lb needs to be reached by 2023, to get a shot (not a certainty, and I really doubt they will succeed ON TIME) at getting the global uranium supply and demand back in equilibrium by ~2026) ;
- The matematical fact that a LT uranium price of 60 USD+/lb (other analists talk about 65 USD - 75 USD/lb) is needed to get the global uranium supply and demand in equilibrium in the LT;
- The fact that uranium demand is price inelastic (certainly under 100$/lb (imo));
- The additional supply insecurity:
https://www.reddit.com/r/UraniumSqueeze/comments/...y_uncertainy_the/- There is much more money in the economy today than there was in 2011 and in 2007!
- Some other analyst predict that the Combined Market Cap of the entire uranium sector will reach 300 – 400 Billion USD in LT
Justin, Uranium Insider, sees 200 billion USD Combined market cap as a floor in the future. The future will tell.
CONCLUSION:
The uranium sector is way undervalued at the moment (March 1, 2022) while:
- Demand for uranium is price inelastic!
- A lot of long term supply contracts of western countries need to be renewed now and in the coming years ==> price discovery that started, will continue, because uranium miners will not restart existing mines and surely not take the risk in build a new mine without the cover of signed off take agreements before the start of the mine construction.
- Different sources are confirming now that the new wave of negotiations for new LT supply contracts has started!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BX_c3dnnQcglook from 25:17: Kazatomprom
and from 56:06: Paladin Energy
In February 2022, Cameco announced that they contracted 30 million pounds of new LT contracts over 12months in 2021 and in the first 5 weeks of 2022 they contracted an additional 40 million pounds of new LT contracts!!
- A lot of new reactors are build in China, India, … More capacity is build globally than capacity being retired globally. New reactor cores need 3 times the normal fuel renewal of existing reactors
Patience and diversification in your Uranium positions is key here
(An investment in URNM etf for those with a too small amount to be able to diversify with individual stocks is a very good alternative (imo))
The question isn't IF it will happen, the question is WHEN it will happen.
From 36.50 billion to 200 billion USD is more than 5x on average (The big producers a bit less potential, while developers and explorers bigger potential)!!
Even with the most "safe" investment in the uranium sector, namely an investment in Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (= investing in uranium without having the mining risks), a ~55% gain from a share price of 15.60 CAD/sh today is almost garanteed, while having a shot at an overshoot of the uranium spotprice much higher than the required 60+ USD/lb (65 - 75 USD/lb).
https://sprott.com/investment-strategies/...-commodity-funds/uranium/https://www.reddit.com/r/UraniumSqueeze/comments/...ranium_sector_at/