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Seadrill and Transocean are two top-tier offshore drillers which are my best picks due to their financial potential, their impressive backlog and their attractive safe dividend.
A thorough analysis of their respective rig fleet shows some major differences that should be evaluated seriously before investing.
Transocean and Seadrill present a unique opportunity now, considering that they trade at a discount compared to their actual fair value, assuming a great growth potential by the mid-2015.
Seadrill Limited (NYSE:SDRL) and Transocean Limited (NYSE:RIG) are two top-tier offshore drilling companies which are very popular among investors.
This study will be focusing primarily on the nature and size of the fleet they own today. It is a comparison that I will try to conduct most objectively, which is quite difficult considering the task. This exercise is difficult because it necessitates special technical skills and knowledge to compare the rig's specifications adequately. This article is a total update of a previous article written in June 9th, 2014. including the floaters and the jackups.
Since then, the two companies have improved and changed rather significantly. New rigs have been contracted or idled; important contracts have been signed; new sectors are about to open.
It is meaningful to check closely these two top-tier companies' fleet, which are comparable in size, revenues and even strategy to grasp their respective business model, which is both complicated (financing, associated companies...) and simple at the same time (basically a contracting provider to the big-oil companies.)
This simple exercise could have prevented, perhaps in part, certain analysts from making few fundamental blunders recently (Deutsche Bank downgrade, for one) which have hurt greatly the offshore drilling industry. Evaluating the whole sector necessitates an understanding of the market and sees it as not a monolithic event, but rather composed of many economic distinct layers (geopolitical, financial and technical.)
Rig classification and overall fleet numbers:
Rigzone is given a general classification based on eight main rig types current as of August 2014:
It is a total of 1,496 rigs in which 867 are actually contracted (57.96%), and the others are either cold stacked, ready stacked, under inspection, undergoing a work over, en route to a new destination or under construction.
Excluding 1), 3), 7) we have a worldwide total of 1,082 rigs in which 633 are actually contracted (58.50%). The 12 companies indicated here represent 63% of the total rigs contracted worldwide.
Complete fleet analysis as of August 2014:
Company ticker
UDW§Deep water Semi-sub Mid Water Jackup
Lift boat
Tender
§Shipyard or Available Cold Stacked Total Rigs
Floaters§Jackup and other Idle or for sale
RIG 29 26 21 15 0 9 8 91§
SDRL 18 19 0 29 3 18 0 69§
Total 47 45 21 44 3 27 8§160
According to Rigzone, Transocean Limited and Seadrill Limited's combined fleet contracted represents a total of about 15% of the total fleet worldwide, if we add the rigs under-construction already contracted for 2015 to 2017.
A - Update (End of August 2014): Seadrill associated companies.
1 - Seadrill Partners, LLC (NYSE:SDLP): SDRL owns 39,635,400 shares or 53.2% (Majority holder).
2 - North Atlantic Drilling (NYSE:NADL): SDRL owns 169,663,723 shares or 70.36% (Majority holder). This situation will change in Q4 2014 with a new partnership with Rosneft (OTC:RNFTF) not finalized yet. SDRL will end up with a bit more than 50% ownership.
3 - Archer Ltd. listed on the Oslo stock-exchange: SDRL owns 231,053,239 shares or about 39.9% of the company.
4 - Sevan Drilling ASA listed on the Oslo stock-exchange: SDRL owns 50.11% of the total company.
5 - SapuraKencana Petroleum BHD listed on the Malaysian stock exchange: SDRL owns 490 million shares of the company representing about 8.18%. SDRL and SAKP own pipelay vessels as indicated in the last second-quarter results: "The first of the six pipelay vessels, which we own in a 50/50 joint venture with Sapura Kencana, was completed by the yard on May 27th and commenced operations on July 3rd on a 5 year contract with Petrobras."
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