17 May 2011
Macquarie Research
Commodities Compendium
Page 24
Molybdenum
Deficit delayed by renewed Chinese exports
Molybdenum (moly) prices have been relatively stable over the past two years. While the market appears to have moved into deficit, China moved from being a substantial net importer in 2009 back to being a small net exporter with suggestions of destocking taking place. There appears to be destocking of some of the speculative inventory built in 2010, leading to a non-Chinese market surplus. We expect prices to recover in late-2011 asChinese destocking ends, Chinese exporter quotas are filled and the market moves into defict in both China and ex-China. Prices remain well above historical normals supported by high-Chinese costs. Recent changes in the market structure (mainly due to rapidly rising Chinese demand and uncertain Chinese supply) have combined to create higher and more volatile prices and a higher pricefloor. Much higher prices have been established, although molybdenum has not been so heavily influenced by the wave of speculative and investment interest that has swept acrossthe exchange-traded commodity markets. This may eventually change with the new LME contract, but there is no sign of that happening in the short run as the LME contract has remained largely unused.
We have left our price forecasts largely unchanged from previously due to a similar supply/demand picture. Our forecasts for prices for 2011 to 2015 are based on the assessment thatthe market will need high-cost Chinese marginal primary capacity to meet incremental demand. This capacity needs prices in the US$13 –17/lb range, and costs will most likley rise in US$ terms. It is really only in 2014 and 2015, when Freeport-McMoran's (FCX US,US$99.88, Not rated) Climax primary mine is fully onstream, that prices may relax as reliance on this high-cost Chinese supply eases.
In the short run (next two years), prices should be stronger due to an expected market deficit and lower 2012 production from two of the larger players, Thompson Creek and Rio Tinto, due to lower Mo grades. Also extremely high copper prices will probably push the main copper by-product producers to maximise copper at the expense of molydenum grades in orebodies. There could well be some downside supply risk. In 2013-2015, however, the expansion at Kennecott plus higher production from Climax plus a number of likely greenfield projects should push prices lower again. Freeport says that its 30m lbs/year Climax primary mine will be ready from 2012 but says the actual startup date will depend on market conditions – we are assumining a 2H2012 start, after prices are sustained above US$20/lb once again.
Following a (revised) 50m lb surplus in 2009, we estimate that there was a 8m lb deficit in 2010 and a further 32m lb of deficts in 2011 and 2012 combined, followed by a relatively balanced market in 2013/14 until a larger surplus emerges in 2015.
Chinese market fundamentals will play a key role in the market going forward and are the key uncertainty. We assume trend demand growth rate of 7 –8% a year from 2011 to 2015. We assume mine output and capacity will continue to grow steadily but from 2011 onwards, China will be a growing net importer of molybenum. A higher Chinese growth rate and some restrictions on Chinese supply growth remain a possibility, pushing the market into an even larger deficit. Supply and demand outside China are still important. We estimate that demand outside China bounced back by 23% YoY in 2010, having fallen 25% in 2009 and 9% in 2008. We forecast that mine production outside China will grow at a reasonably rapid rate, with byproduct output up 11% this year after disruption but then fall back to 2% in 2012.
China is back to being a small exporter of moly.
www.scribd.com/doc/55676517/5/No-stopping-the-supply-surge
