18:41 20/03/2012 My analysis of the news
Hi everyone,
I'd like to offer my interpretation of today's news, which to me is
probably the most important news we have ever had.
The placing of 150m shares was agreed when the sp was around 13p, so
the discount was incremenetal. Such a small discount suggests that PL
was in a good position to strike the deal. Of course in hindsight it
would have been better to place the shares at 16p, but PL can not see
in to the future. The important thing to remember is the discount was
circa 0.5p whereas the TT raising was done at a 7p discount (24p to
17p). There must be some high levels of confidence in Shabeel-1.
We have now acquired 100% of a 10,000 sq km block of offshore Nugaal.
It would appear that we were given first choice of which slice we
would like to take, and PL chose the one with the best prospects (as
one would).
People have asked why we did this deal now and not in 6 weeks when we
strike oil in Shabeel and would be able to raise from a much more
favourable position. PL explained this in an email response and it
seems like a calculated risk was taken.
If Shabeel comes in and our SP surges to new highs, it would be easy
to say we could have raised then and got more bang for out buck.
However, if Shabeel came in dry, our sp would have plummeted and the
raising would have cost us far more.
Shabeel has good chances but is by no mean a shoe-in for success. As
PL is playing with our money, I for one am glad that he erred on the
side of caution, no matter how confident he is of success in Shabeel.
It shows he calculates risk assessment and doesn't just go in gung-ho
with shareholders' money.
The 100% ownership of the most prospective block gives us an edge on
future owners of other blocks. We will have first choice of farm in
partners and offshore Puntland will warrant the co-operation of an
experienced major. It's clear that these companies are waiting in the
sidelines watching Shabeel for the result. If this comes in, then we
will be in a tremendous bargaining position.
Offshore contains an estimated 66bn barrels if memory serves me right.
Obviously our block will be a fraction of this, and as we farm our
interests out in exchange for operating interests, the amount
attributable to Range will be a 'paltry' several billion barrels. All
for a £3.5m airstrip. Sounds like a terrific deal to me.
The involvement of RMP has brought with it much controversy. PL has
previously stated that they would not be involved in offshore. In the
business world, strategies can change on a daily basis and I'm sure he
has his reasons and they will become transparent soon enough.
In the meantime, I would suggest that those moaning about Range's
shares in issue do as most people (and PL has mooted) have done and
take a small position in RMP. Personally I am 80/20 Range/RMP.
Colombia - no detail has been released yet detailing our block, but
the basin itself has a mixture of small, medium and large producing
fields. Colombia has a very small tax and royalties rate 15% combined
I believe. This will have been selected by Mark Patterson who
suggested TT and Texas to Range so has a great track record. Will be
excited to read more about our block in the Putumayo basin.
GR
By Great_Room