Mobile Business Losses Expected to Peak in 2021; Increasing Rakuten’s FVE to JPY 1,400
Kazunori Ito Director
Analyst Note Sep 9, 2021
We raise Rakuten’s fair value estimate to JPY 1,400 from JPY 1,200 as we think the company is making solid progress on enhancing its ecosystem. Rakuten’s cross-use ratio has reached 73.9% in the June quarter, 5 percentage points up from three years ago, implying the improvement of Rakuten’s user engagement. The number of accounts for Rakuten Bank and Rakuten Securities increased 21% and 42% from the previous year, respectively, outpacing the 6.8% increase in Rakuten membership. Rakuten Card accounts for 21% of gross trading value in Japan, which is up from 10% five years ago. While June quarter earnings numbers were below our expectations because of the larger loss in the mobile segment, we are encouraged with the solid KPI numbers in the fintech businesses. Our new fair value estimate of JPY 1,400 corresponds to 1.1 times price/sales, which is at the middle of its historical range over the past three years.
Rakuten Mobile is starting to make a material contribution in enhancing Rakuten’s ecosystem. For instance, the company explains that 19% of new mobile subscribers are first-time users of Rakuten’s services, and 65% of Rakuten Mobile users are Rakuten Card users, 39% are Rakuten Bank users, and 17% are Rakuten Securities users. As such, in addition to the current combination of e-commerce and fintech businesses, mobile business is adding more stickiness to Rakuten’s entire ecosystem. Although operating loss for the mobile segment for this year will be larger than our previous forecast, we believe it will contribute to driving the growth of Rakuten’s ecosystem in the longer run.
www.morningstar.com/stocks/xtks/4755/quote
Kazunori Ito Director
Analyst Note Sep 9, 2021
We raise Rakuten’s fair value estimate to JPY 1,400 from JPY 1,200 as we think the company is making solid progress on enhancing its ecosystem. Rakuten’s cross-use ratio has reached 73.9% in the June quarter, 5 percentage points up from three years ago, implying the improvement of Rakuten’s user engagement. The number of accounts for Rakuten Bank and Rakuten Securities increased 21% and 42% from the previous year, respectively, outpacing the 6.8% increase in Rakuten membership. Rakuten Card accounts for 21% of gross trading value in Japan, which is up from 10% five years ago. While June quarter earnings numbers were below our expectations because of the larger loss in the mobile segment, we are encouraged with the solid KPI numbers in the fintech businesses. Our new fair value estimate of JPY 1,400 corresponds to 1.1 times price/sales, which is at the middle of its historical range over the past three years.
Rakuten Mobile is starting to make a material contribution in enhancing Rakuten’s ecosystem. For instance, the company explains that 19% of new mobile subscribers are first-time users of Rakuten’s services, and 65% of Rakuten Mobile users are Rakuten Card users, 39% are Rakuten Bank users, and 17% are Rakuten Securities users. As such, in addition to the current combination of e-commerce and fintech businesses, mobile business is adding more stickiness to Rakuten’s entire ecosystem. Although operating loss for the mobile segment for this year will be larger than our previous forecast, we believe it will contribute to driving the growth of Rakuten’s ecosystem in the longer run.
www.morningstar.com/stocks/xtks/4755/quote