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Rakuten wesentlich besser als Rocket


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Libuda:

Rakuten wesentlich besser als Rocket

8
15.11.14 10:58
- und daher habe ich mir nach dem Einstieg bei Alibaba, die inzwischem mehr als 20% gut gemacht haben, auch einige Rakutens gekauft.

Look Out Amazon, Here Comes...Rakuten?
Japanese e-commerce firm Rakuten announced on Tuesday it is acquiring Ebates for $1 billion.

The acquisition, which Rakuten hinted at last week, is part of the Japanese company’s push to grow its base beyond its domestic market and hopefully, become a global player. Having made some $1.2 billion acquisitions to date along these lines, this is Rakuten’s most ambitious move to date.

However, investors are dubious that the company can absorb yet another foreign acquisition, much less one the size of Ebates, despite Rakuten’s strong cash position.
Then there is the ever-present Amazon, which dominates the e-commerce market in the U.S. Few believe it will falter in the face of Chinese giant Alibaba, much less a Rakuten-Ebates combo.

Rakuten Goes Forth

Not surprisingly, Rakuten says it is undaunted. For starters, it has assembled a very interesting mix of acquisitions. There is messaging app Viber, which it purchased for $900 million in February, the Canadian ebook offering Kobo, Spanish video service Wuaki.tv, Viki, a digital content platform and Buy.com.
Now it has picked up Ebates.

www.forbes.com/sites/erikamorphy/2014/09/...ere-comes-rakuten/
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Libuda:

Upcoming launches of AstSpaceMobile

 
22.10.26 17:33
The upcoming launches are planned as follows:

Satellites§Target Launch Window Rocket / Launch Provider Status / Notes
BlueBirds #14, #15, #16 Later in October 2026 SpaceX Falcon 9 Upcoming immediate launch.
BlueBirds #17, #18, #19 Later in November 2026 SpaceX Falcon 9 Shipping soon to the launch site.
BlueBirds #20, #21, #22 Mid-December 2026 SpaceX Falcon 9 / Blue Origin Scheduled to ship from Midland factory.
BlueBirds #23 – #27 Year-end 2026 Blue Origin New Glenn (Pending) Ready to ship by late November; depends on New Glenn availability.
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Libuda:

Rakuten's profitability now securely established

 
22.10.26 18:49
Rakuten’s profitability is now securely established, driven by strong growth in its core business areas and a turnaround in its mobile telecommunications division.

The financial position of the Japanese tech conglomerate has fundamentally stabilized, thanks to two key factors:

Sustainable Profit Drivers (E-commerce & Fintech)
Rakuten’s traditional core segments—its e-commerce platform (Rakuten Ichiba) and its fintech division (Rakuten Bank, Rakuten Card)—continue to serve as highly robust sources of cash flow:
• Double-digit growth: Both revenue and profit are consistently showing double-digit growth rates.
• High resilience: These revenue streams are exceptionally crisis-resistant and form the financial foundation for the entire ecosystem.

Turnaround in Mobile Telecommunications (Rakuten Mobile)
The mobile business, which had been a source of massive losses for years, has reached a decisive turning point:
• Operating profit in Q1 2026: In the first quarter of 2026, Rakuten Mobile posted an operating profit for the quarter—a first for the division.
• Rollout of "platinum" spectrum: The nationwide deployment of the highly coveted "platinum frequencies" (the 700 MHz band) is significantly improving network coverage in indoor environments and rural areas.
• From loss-making to growth: The data confirms that the phase of structural deficits has been overcome, and the segment is now experiencing organic growth.
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Libuda:

People returning to Rakuten Mobile from budget SIM

 
22.10.26 22:18
Are people returning to Rakuten Mobile from budget SIMs? The magic of unlimited data and points

September 07, 2026

It is said that users who once switched to budget SIMs (MVNOs) due to concerns about communication quality are now returning to Rakuten Mobile one after another. As past issues are being addressed, the combination of "unlimited data" and "point rewards," which other companies cannot imitate, continues to attract and hold onto rational users.

Why do people who once left choose Rakuten Mobile again? We analyze the latest trends in household budget management and communication environments from an objective perspective.

note.com/mob_ril_trzr/n/na348b40c2ba0?hl=en
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Libuda:

Joint European Bid For Satellite Mobile Spectrum

 
23.10.26 18:24
Vodafone Group (LSE:VOD) Joins Joint European Bid For Satellite Mobile Spectrum

Fri, October 23, 2026

• Vodafone Group (LSE:VOD) has joined leading European mobile operators and AST SpaceMobile in a joint bid for Mobile Satellite Services spectrum in Europe.
• The cooperation targets Mobile Satellite Services airwaves that could be used to integrate satellites with existing mobile networks and widen coverage.
• The partners aim to use a mix of space based and terrestrial infrastructure to extend mobile connectivity into rural and remote areas across Europe.

read://https_finance.yahoo.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ffinance.yahoo.com%2Ftechnology%2Farticles%2Fvodafone-group-lse-vod-joins-131438373.html%3F3739a18c-0c68-43cc-a4cb-b8b99e9bfd72%3Df1556a83-1b70-4d76-946e-d263db91d04b
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Libuda:

Auto Insurance Application Ranking

 
23.10.26 18:48
[August 2026 Latest Edition] Auto Insurance Application Ranking

hoken.rakuten.co.jp/car/?l-id=top_car_ranking#totalRankings
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Libuda:

NLB partners Rakuten Kobo

 
23.10.26 21:25
NLB partners Rakuten Kobo to launch new hybrid Sit-n-Read Node at City Square Mall

For the first time, patrons can try out Kobo eReaders at the Node and browse both digital and physical books.

Singapore, 19 October 2026 – Reading will become easier, more colourful, and even more comfortable for shoppers and families with the launch of a new experience at City Square Mall today.

In their first standalone presence in Singapore, NLB is collaborating with Rakuten Kobo to create a new hybrid Sit-n-Read Node. For the first time at a Sit-n-Read Node, patrons can browse popular eBooks through the Kobo eReader devices on display, alongside dedicated seating areas, reading nooks, and shelves with NLB pre-loved books.

To better encourage patrons to fulfil their 15 minutes of daily reading, the Kobo eReaders offer bite-sized previews of a curated digital collection, allowing patrons to browse genres and content they may not have previously considered. Hooked readers can then borrow the full eBooks via an interactive eReads screen with their NLB Mobile app, and continue to read on their personal devices on the go.

www.nlb.gov.sg/main/about-us/.../media-releases/2026/nlb-kobo
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Libuda:

Mobile enters 27 with strong operational momentum

 
23.10.26 21:42
Rakuten Mobile enters 2027 with strong operational momentum, driven by structural price advantages, network quality improvements via Open RAN, and deep integration within the broader Rakuten Group ecosystem.

Current Subscriber Base & Trajectory
• 11 Million Milestone: Rakuten Mobile officially surpassed 11 million total subscriber lines as of late September 2026 (including MNO, MVNO, MVNE, and BCP contracts).
• Core MNO Growth: Excluding business continuity lines and virtual networks, core MNO-only subscribers stood at 10.18 million. The carrier took roughly nine months to climb from 10 million (reached in December 2025) to 11 million, showcasing steady net additions.

Key Growth Catalysts for 2027
To understand how Rakuten Mobile plans to sustain subscriber growth heading into 2027, the company is leaning on three primary pillars:
Ecosystem Synergy: Rakuten Mobile users are heavy cross-consumers. A mobile customer uses 2.43x more services across the Rakuten ecosystem than non-mobile users, fueling higher profit margins and lower overall churn.
Aggressive Price Lock: While Japan's three main legacy operators (NTT Docomo, KDDI, and SoftBank) raised prices, Rakuten locked in flat, tier-based pricing (maxing out at ¥3,278/month for unlimited data). This has made it the top-ranked destination for consumers looking to switch carriers.
Satellite Direct-to-Device (D2D): To close its remaining coverage gaps against the "Big Three," Rakuten aims to leverage its partnership with AST SpaceMobile and the government-backed J-LEO domestic satellite project to establish true gapless coverage starting from late 2026 into 2027.

Financial & Network Outlook
The steady influx of users has significantly improved the unit's financials. Rakuten Group posted its first positive net income since 2020 during the first half of 2026, largely because Rakuten Mobile has successfully narrowed its operating losses through rising average revenue per user (ARPU) and reduced churn. The firm plans to deploy significant capital expenditure (¥200 billion budgeted recently
) to further optimize high-density urban infrastructure, such as Tokyo's train networks, ensuring the Open RAN framework scales effectively into 2027.




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Libuda:

Rakuten Ichiba and broaader Internet Services

 
24.10.26 10:39
For Rakuten Ichiba and Rakuten’s broader Internet Services segment, analysts and management project stable, mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth for the 2026–2030 period.

Rakuten generally does not report revenue figures for the Rakuten Ichiba platform in isolation; instead, these are consolidated within the Internet Services segment (which encompasses domestic e-commerce—including Rakuten Ichiba—as well as Rakuten Travel, logistics, and the advertising business). Following the group’s return to profitability in 2026, the focus through 2030 will shift toward further enhancing profitability, driven by the extensive deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) and the leveraging of ecosystem synergies.

Financial Performance & Projections (2026–2030)
The domestic e-commerce business has surpassed an annual revenue threshold of 1 trillion yen. The following growth trends are anticipated through 2030:

• Revenue Growth (Sales & GMS): Analysts expect a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6% to 7% for the core segment through 2030. Domestic Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) are projected to grow steadily at a rate of approximately 4.5% to 5.5% per year.

• Fintech Reorganization & Synergies: By the fiscal year ending in March 2030, Rakuten plans to achieve deeper integration across its fintech division (comprising Rakuten Bank, Rakuten Card, and Rakuten Securities). Management forecasts that this will generate approximately 85 billion yen in additional synergies, which are expected to have a direct, positive impact on consumer purchasing behavior and merchant fees within the Rakuten Ichiba ecosystem.

Key Revenue Drivers Through 2030

1. The “Mobile Ecosystem” Effect: Rakuten Mobile is increasingly acting as a powerful engine for Rakuten Ichiba. Data shows that customers who switch to Rakuten Mobile increase their spending on Rakuten Ichiba by an average of 50%. The growing penetration of mobile subscribers within the ecosystem is driving marketplace revenue.

2. AI-Driven Revenue Growth: Rakuten is rolling out AI tools—such as “AI Shop Manager” and “Rakuten AI Super Agent”—to merchants across its platform. AI-powered search and personalized banner advertising on Ichiba have already delivered double-digit growth in the advertising segment (+15.6% year-over-year). By 2030, AI is expected to shorten the path to purchase and sustainably increase the average order value (AOV).

3. Merchant Fees and Advertising Revenue: In addition to transaction commissions (2–5%), Rakuten Ichiba’s revenue model relies significantly on merchant subscriptions and advertising budgets. As the group’s advertising revenue continues to grow rapidly, this highly profitable income stream is set to become increasingly important by 2030.
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Libuda:

A Remarkable Turnaround

 
24.10.26 14:10

The historical EBITDA trend for Rakuten Group, Inc. from 2016 through mid-2026 reveals significant fluctuations. In particular, massive investments in the company’s own mobile network (Rakuten Mobile MNO) weighed heavily on profitability starting around 2019/2020. From 2024 onward, however, a robust operational recovery took hold.

Annual EBITDA Trend (in billions of USD)

Consolidated data from the past decade illustrates a cycle consisting of core profitability, a crisis driven by mobile network investments, and a subsequent turnaround:

      Year§EBITDA (USD bn) Trend & Drivers
2026 (TTM) $2.40 The first half of the year marks historic milestones in profitability.
      2025     $2.24§Strong performance in the FinTech segment and cost reductions in the mobile division.
      2024     $2.44§A powerful turnaround (+295% YoY) driven by a decline in mobile cash burn.
      2023     $0.62§Profitability trough, due to massive costs associated with mobile network expansion.
      2022§-$0.75 (est) Net operational loss; the period of greatest strain caused by the mobile division.
      2021§$0.02 (est) Nearly all profitability from E-Commerce and FinTech was absorbed by the mobile segment.
      2020§$0.54 (est) Onset of significant headwinds following the launch of the proprietary mobile network.

      2019§$1.65 (est) Strong earnings power in E-Commerce; initial investments in mobile infrastructure.
      2018§$1.56 (est) Solid margins within the traditional ecosystem (Rakuten Ichiba, credit cards). 2017 $1.31 (est.) Continuous growth of the core ecosystem in Japan.
      2016§$1.12 (est.) Stable earnings performance prior to entering the telecommunications business.
(Note: Estimates for 2019–2022 are based on historical IFRS/non-GAAP reconciliations from Macrotrends, accounting for depreciation and amortization.)

Strategic Milestones During the Reporting Period

• 2016 – 2019 (The Stable Ecosystem): Rakuten generated reliable cash flows, primarily through its marketplace (Rakuten Ichiba) and its expanding FinTech division (credit cards, online banking).
• 2020 – 2023 (The Mobile Network Challenge): The development of a fourth mobile network in Japan placed significant downward pressure on the group’s EBITDA. Losses amounting to billions overshadowed the otherwise highly profitable e-commerce and FinTech segments.
• 2024 – 2026 (The Turnaround): In 2025, the FinTech segment achieved record profits. In the first half of 2026, the company reported a record EBITDA of 115.3 billion yen for the second quarter (+11.7% year-on-year). A key factor was that the mobile division (Rakuten Mobile) posted a positive quarterly EBITDA for the first time ever during the first half of 2026.
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Libuda:

Capex/debt reduction financed through depreciation

 
24.10.26 18:35
Capex and debt reduction financed through depreciation

If one considers only the depreciation of property, plant, and equipment (PPE)—explicitly excluding the amortization of intangible assets (such as software, goodwill, or customer relationships)—the following picture emerges for the Rakuten Group.

These figures accurately reflect the physical network expansion (cell towers, data centers, and logistics centers) of the mobile communications division:

Depreciation of property, plant, and equipment (in billions of yen)
Fiscal Year Depreciation (PPE only)
2025: ¥233.1
2024: ¥249.7
2023: ¥238.2
2022: ¥208.4
2021: ¥140.8
2020: ¥83.9
2019: ¥48.2
2018: ¥31.7

Structural characteristics of this metric:
• The “pure” hardware peak: Compared to the combined total (D&A), depreciation of PPE accounts for the vast majority (approx. 70–75%) from 2021 onwards. This confirms that the balance sheet was burdened almost exclusively by mobile network hardware (towers, antennas, network nodes).
• The trend from 2025 onwards: Even when viewed in isolation, the peak occurs in 2024. As investments in 4G base stations have been scaled back, the depreciation burden is decreasing as planned. Over the extended period from 2018 to 2026, the amortization of intangible assets for the Rakuten Group shows a more stable—yet consistently upward—trend compared to that of tangible fixed assets.

This  next metric primarily captures the scheduled amortization of software (including internally developed platforms), IT licenses, and intangible assets arising from corporate acquisitions (Purchase Price Allocation, or PPA):

Amortization of Intangible Assets (in billions of yen)

Fiscal Year Amortization (Software, Licenses & PPA)
2025: ¥15.2 (projected on a full-year basis)
2024: ¥16.8
2023: ¥13.6
2022: ¥11.8
2021: ¥10.6
2020: ¥9.5
2019: ¥9.8
2018: ¥11.0

Note regarding 2026: In the first half of the year (H1/2026), the proportional amortization of intangible assets amounted to approximately ¥6.0 billion. Consequently, the projected full-year figure for 2026 remains stable, falling within the range of ¥12 billion to ¥13 billion.

Strategic insights into the figures:
• The 2024 peak: Amortization reached its high point in 2024 at 16.8 billion yen. This was closely linked to the completion and full-scale implementation of the IT infrastructure and core systems for the digital ecosystem (FinTech and mobile services).
• Significant stability: In stark contrast to tangible fixed assets—which surged from ¥31 billion to over ¥240 billion due to the expansion of the mobile network—software amortization remained controlled throughout the decade, generally fluctuating within a moderate range of 10 to 17 billion yen.

For the period from 2018 to 2026, the capital expenditures (CapEx) of the Rakuten Group reflect the massive financial commitment required to build a proprietary, cloud-native mobile network (Rakuten Mobile) in Japan.

Following a period of historic highs around 2022, the investment curve trended downward as part of a cost-reduction phase, before rising slightly again in 2026 to accelerate network expansion.
Overview of CapEx trends (in billions of JPY)
      Year§Total CapEx (Group / Mobile) Strategic focus & context
2018: 90–100 billion JPY Focus on e-commerce & FinTech; initial preparations for entry into the MNO (mobile network operator) market.
2019: 150 billion JPY Start of construction for the proprietary mobile network; acquisition of spectrum licenses.
2020: 320 billion JPY Commercial launch of Rakuten Mobile; rapid rollout of LTE base stations. 2021: 380 billion JPY Aggressive network expansion to reduce costly roaming charges from KDDI.
                              §
      2022§393 billion JPY Peak capital expenditure (CapEx); reaching over 98% population coverage.
      2023§307 billion JPY Beginning of strict cost discipline; optimized hardware procurement via Rakuten Symphony.
      2024§191 billion JPY Continued cost-cutting measures; significant reduction in mobile network investments.
      2025§157 billion JPY Low point of the spending phase; mobile division achieves positive EBITDA for the first time.
2026 (planned) 200–254 billion JPY Strategic rebound; increase in the mobile network budget to 200 billion JPY.

Key Phases of the Investment Strategy
• 2018–2019 (Preparation Phase): Rakuten transformed from a pure-play internet and FinTech service provider into a telecommunications group. Expenditures rose moderately as the company acquired infrastructure and spectrum licenses.
• 2020–2022 (Peak Years): Building the world’s first fully virtualized Open-RAN mobile network consumed vast amounts of capital. To minimize reliance on competitor KDDI (for roaming) as quickly as possible, Rakuten significantly accelerated its network rollout. This resulted in an all-time high for capital expenditure (CapEx) in 2022, reaching nearly 400 billion JPY.
• 2023–2025 (Cost Discipline & Consolidation): Having achieved comprehensive baseline coverage, management drastically scaled back investments. The strategy paid off: losses narrowed, and Rakuten Mobile reported positive EBITDA for the full year 2025—a first for the division.
• 2026 (Capacity Expansion & AI): For the 2026 fiscal year, Rakuten has increased its mobile-specific CapEx budget back to 200 billion JPY (with total group-wide CapEx estimated by analysts at approximately 254 billion JPY). This renewed increase is driven by accelerated subscriber growth—surpassing 10.7 million customers by mid-2026—which necessitates targeted upgrades to 5G capacity (including within Tokyo’s subway and rail networks) as well as the expansion of the 700 MHz band ("Platinum Band").

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Libuda:

Some forecasts predicts massive growth

 
24.10.26 22:02
The following forecast paints a highly optimistic picture of the Open RAN market, standing in stark contrast to the more conservative expectations of Stefan Pongratz (Dell'Oro Group). While Dell'Oro has taken a more cautious stance in recent years—citing delays among major mobile network operators and slower momentum in rural areas—this forecast predicts massive growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.8% through 2033.

Key figures from the optimistic market forecast (2025–2033)
         •§Market value in 2025: $6.5 billion
         •§Expected value in 2026: $8.6 billion
         •§Projected value in 2033: $45.1 billion
         •§Dominant region: North America (41.1% revenue share in 2025)

Why market perspectives diverge so significantly
The fundamental difference between optimistic and cautious forecasts lies in the assessment of two key drivers:

        1.§The role of major contracts: Optimistic analysts often view landmark deals—such as AT&T’s Open RAN commitment to Ericsson—as the catalyst for a global chain reaction. Skeptics, by contrast, see these as isolated large-scale projects that merely replace traditional proprietary contracts, without immediately opening the market to smaller, third-party vendors.

        2.§Maturity of interoperability: Open RAN promises the ability to freely combine hardware and software from different manufacturers. Optimists believe in rapid standardization driven by the O-RAN ALLIANCE. More conservative analysts, however, emphasize the technical hurdles involved in system integration and the hidden costs for mobile network operators.
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Libuda:

The CAPEX-drop

 
25.10.26 11:11
The Rakuten Group’s investment strategy (CAPEX) for the 2027–2030 period marks a fundamental shift: following massive infrastructure spending on its mobile network, the company anticipates a significant decline in CAPEX during this timeframe, aimed at maximizing free cash flow (FCF) and securing the Group’s profitability.

While a strategic CAPEX peak of 200 billion yen (~1.3 billion USD) has been set for the current 2026 fiscal year—primarily to expand network capacity within Tokyo’s subway systems—the roadmap for the subsequent years is as follows:

CAPEX and Financial Outlook 2027–2030

Metric / Focus 2027–2028 Period 2029–2030 Period

Mobile CAPEX Trend: Significant decline below 2026 levels, Stabilization at a level focused solely on maintenance and optimization

Strategic Driver: Expiration/adjustment of the costly KDDI roaming agreement (September 2026); shift in focus entirely toward on-net subscribers, Scaling of software solutions (Rakuten Symphony) for global monetization

Free Cash Flow (FCF): Expected to turn positive (driven by reduced investment requirements)

Strong FCF contribution toward the ongoing repayment of remaining bond debt

Leverage Target: Aiming to reduce the net leverage ratio (non-FinTech net debt/EBITDA) to below 5.0x

Consolidation within the target range to meet investment-grade criteria

The Strategic Phases in Detail

• Phase 1: The CAPEX Drop (2027 – 2028)

As Rakuten nears the completion of its base stations and proprietary Open RAN network in metropolitan areas by the end of 2026, the pressure for capital expenditure (CAPEX) will decrease significantly from 2027 onwards. From this point, the operating leverage of the mobile segment will take full effect: as the number of subscribers grows, the additional revenue will flow directly into margins, without the need for further multi-billion-yen investments in physical cell towers.

Phase 2: The Harvest & Growth Phase (2029 – 2030)
The Rakuten Group’s long-term corporate objective is to achieve an operating profit of 1 trillion yen. Between 2029 and 2030, the FinTech ecosystem (Rakuten Bank, Rakuten Card, and Rakuten Securities)—supported by a profitable e-commerce core and a now-stabilized mobile division—is expected to prove itself as a reliable generator of cash. During these years, investments will be directed primarily toward AI infrastructure and data-driven advertising solutions (DPI data), rather than traditional mobile network infrastructure and civil engineering.
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Libuda:

Clear medium-term growth and profit targets

 
25.10.26 12:32
Following the successful reorganization of its fintech business in October 2026—in which Rakuten Card and Rakuten Securities were consolidated as subsidiaries directly under Rakuten Bank—the company has defined clear medium-term growth and profit targets.

The projected earnings (ordinary profit) for the 2027–2030 period are as follows:

Profit Forecasts 2027–2030

• Fiscal Year 2027: Immediately following the restructuring, Rakuten Bank is expected to generate an ordinary profit of approximately 200 billion yen (approx. 1.25 billion USD). Analysts forecast a significant increase in revenue to around 246 billion yen for 2027, driven by deeper integration within the ecosystem.

• Fiscal Years 2028–2029: During this period, financial and marketing-related synergies will take full effect. By March 2028, additional synergy gains of approximately 25 billion yen—stemming solely from the financial consolidation—are already factored in. Earnings are expected to rise progressively throughout these years.

• Target Year 2030: By the fiscal year ending in March 2030, Rakuten Bank has set a firm goal to double its ordinary profit to over 400 billion yen (approx. 2.5 billion USD).

Key Profit Drivers of the Reorganization

• Capital Efficiency & Fund Circulation: The substantial deposits held by Rakuten Bank (across more than 18 million accounts) are being utilized directly to meet the funding requirements of the credit card business (Rakuten Card) and trading activities (Rakuten Securities).

• Synergy effects: By 2030, the group expects to realize recurring annual synergies totaling 85 billion yen, driven by reduced marketing costs and extensive cross-selling across its platforms.

• Interest rate environment: The bank also stands to benefit significantly from the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) shift toward a more restrictive interest rate policy, which structurally boosts net interest income.
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Libuda:

Additional to my last posting

 
25.10.26 14:12
In my view, the $1.25 billion profit for Rakuten Bank in 2027—mentioned in the previous post—justifies a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16, especially given that Rakuten Bank’s profit is already projected to reach $2.5 billion by 2030.

Based on a P/E ratio of 16, a profit of $1.25 billion in 2027 would imply a valuation of $20 billion—of which the Rakuten Group’s 72% stake would account for $14.4 billion.

This $14.4 billion figure alone is more than 50% higher than the current total valuation of the entire Rakuten Group.
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Libuda:

Glaring valuation discrepancy

 
25.10.26 16:50
Current market data also support my thesis regarding the glaring valuation discrepancy:

Rakuten Group Market Segmentation: The entire Rakuten Group, Inc. (TSE: 4755) is currently valued at a market capitalization of approximately 8.5 to 8.8 billion USD.

Rakuten Bank Standalone Valuation: Rakuten Bank, Ltd. (TSE: 5838)—which is already publicly traded separately—currently has a market capitalization of around 15.3 billion USD (approx. 2.36 trillion JPY).

Even without accounting for projected earnings growth by 2027, the Rakuten Group’s 72% stake in Rakuten Bank (based on a 15.3 billion USD valuation) is already worth approximately 11 billion USD.

This bank stake alone is about 25% higher than the current total market value of the entire Rakuten Group (8.8 billion USD).

If Rakuten Bank achieves a profit of 1.25 billion USD in 2027 and is valued at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16 (resulting in a total valuation of 20 billion USD), the value of this 72% stake would rise to the 14.4 billion USD figure you mentioned. This would exceed the current value of the parent company by more than 60%.

Furthermore, the claim that operating losses and the mountain of debt incurred from building out Rakuten Mobile are weighing on the company—and that the market is effectively subtracting a "negative value" from the profitable FinTech arm—is far too simplistic. After all, there is also the value of the e-commerce business; for Rakuten Mobile to have a "negative value," it would first have to wipe out the value of the profitable e-commerce segment, as well as the value of holdings in companies like ASTS, Cabify, etc.—a notion that is clearly absurd.
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Libuda:

Core capital ratio of Rakuten Bank excellent

 
25.10.26 21:32
In the banking and financial sector, balance-sheet equity ratios of 2–3% are common, whereas Rakuten Bank’s regulatory core capital ratio (capital adequacy ratio) is solid at over 11%.
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Libuda:

Additional to my last posting

 
25.10.26 21:41
Rakuten Bank maintains a solid regulatory capital adequacy ratio of over 11%. This figure is well above the capital levels typically seen in the banking and financial sector, which often hover around 2–3% of total assets.

Relevance of the metric

• Robust risk buffers: A capital adequacy ratio exceeding 11% means that the bank possesses a substantial financial cushion relative to its risk-weighted assets, enabling it to absorb potential loan defaults or market losses.

• Compliance with regulatory requirements: The institution exceeds international minimum standards (such as those under Basel III) and is considered to have a very stable foundation.

• Comparison with the traditional sector: While the unweighted capital ratio (leverage ratio) at many large, traditional banks is often quite low, Rakuten Bank’s risk-weighted capital adequacy ratio demonstrates significantly stronger capitalization in relation to the actual risks taken.
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Libuda:

Foolish Chatter

 
26.10.26 07:37
For the non-fintech segment (comprising core e-commerce operations like Rakuten Ichiba and the capital-intensive mobile network Rakuten Mobile), management primarily uses the following metric to monitor financial strength:

• Leverage ratio (Net Debt / EBITDA): The key metric for the non-fintech segment is the ratio of net financial debt to EBITDA.

• Current figure: This ratio has been successfully reduced from historical highs (over 11x in 2024) to 5.6x.

• Target: Rakuten plans to maintain this leverage for its non-fintech business at approximately 6.0x
through the end of 2026, with a firm commitment to reducing it to below 5.0x by 2027.

In this light, I consider rants about Rakuten’s high debt levels to be nothing more than foolish chatter.
Antworten
Libuda:

Someone overlooking the reducing-speed

 
26.10.26 11:02
The speed at which Rakuten is reducing its leverage ratio (net financial debt/EBITDA) in its non-fintech segment is the decisive factor in reassuring the capital market. Leverage fell sharply from 11.7x in December 2024 to 5.6x in March 2026, before settling at 6.2x in June 2026. This demonstrates that the fundamental turnaround in profitability—driven primarily by the reduction of losses at Rakuten Mobile—is taking hold faster than many critics anticipated.

Achieving the target of approximately 6.0x by the end of 2026, and the firm commitment to reach a level below 5.0x by 2027, depends significantly on the interplay between EBITDA growth and strict investment discipline.

Key drivers of rapid deleveraging:

• EBITDA growth in mobile services: Reaching profitability (or significantly limiting losses) at Rakuten Mobile serves as the most powerful lever for the denominator of this ratio.

• Fintech ecosystem as a cash catalyst: The strong performance of Rakuten Bank and Rakuten Card bolsters the group’s liquidity and facilitates a strategic reorganization aimed at freeing up capital.

• Plateau in 2026: The slight increase from 5.6x to 6.2x in 2026 reflects planned bursts of capital expenditure (Capex) in the mobile sector, ahead of the final push to bring the ratio below 5.0x in 2027.
Antworten
Libuda:

AST SpaceMobile Advances Brazil Expansion

 
26.10.26 13:55
AST SpaceMobile Advances Brazil Expansion with Anatel’s Approval for S-band Spectrum and Secondary Use of the 700 MHz Band, Agreements with Four Regional Operators and Planned Ground Infrastructure

Oct 26, 2026

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (“AST SpaceMobile”) (NASDAQ: ASTS), the company building the first and only space-based cellular broadband network accessible directly by everyday smartphones, designed for both commercial and government applications, today announced significant progress toward bringing space-based cellular broadband to Brazil, Latin America’s largest economy.

www.aol.com/articles/...ances-brazil-expansion-113000000.html
Antworten
Libuda:

Capital market may be overlooking key dynamics

 
26.10.26 14:08
The scenario I described in previous posts suggests that the capital market may be overlooking key dynamics in its assessment of Rakuten. The pace of deleveraging within the non-fintech segment is the core argument for the company’s turnaround.

Below is a concise analysis of the financial trajectory:
Leverage Ratio Trend (Net Financial Debt/EBITDA)
    Period§Leverage Ratio Status / Trend
December 2024: 11.7x Historical peak due to high levels of investment
March 2026: 5.6x Drastic decline driven by an operational turnaround
June 2026: 6.2x Temporary plateau due to planned spikes in capital expenditure (Capex)
End of 2026 (Target): ~6.0x Projected target for the full year
Target 2027: < 5.0x Firmly committed target level for the capital market

The three levers for accelerated deleveraging:
• EBITDA growth at Rakuten Mobile: Reducing losses in the mobile business has the most significant positive impact on the denominator (EBITDA) of the ratio.
• Fintech as a liquidity anchor: The strong performance of Rakuten Bank and Rakuten Card secures group-wide liquidity and frees up capital.
• Controlled investments: The slight uptick in the summer of 2026 does not represent a reversal in the trend; rather, it reflects planned bursts of capital expenditure (Capex) ahead of the final deleveraging phase in 2027.
Antworten
Libuda:

on average, as "outperform" or "buy"

 
26.10.26 16:08
Despite the current weakness in the share price, most analysts (14 analysts covering the stock) rate the security, on average, as "outperform" or "buy."

Price target: The median analyst price target for the next 12 months ranges from 890.40 to 911.00 JPY—representing an expected upside potential of over 40% from current levels
Antworten
Libuda:

Anthropic and Rakuten are working closely together

 
26.10.26 17:40
Anthropic and Rakuten are working closely together to integrate generative AI technologies deeply into the business processes and software development operations of the Japanese e-commerce and technology giant.

This partnership focuses primarily on two key areas:

1. AI-powered software development (Claude Code)
Rakuten is leveraging Claude Code and Claude Managed Agents to fundamentally transform its programming and development processes. The results of this collaboration demonstrate a massive increase in efficiency:
• Time-to-market reduced by 79%: The development time for new software projects has dropped from an average of 24 days to just 5 days.
• Minimization of critical errors: Through AI-driven reviews, critical programming errors have decreased by 97%, with a 99.9% accuracy rate for complex code modifications.
• Autonomous coding: In test projects—such as the refactoring of vLLM codebases spanning millions of lines—the AI ​​demonstrated the ability to restructure complex code entirely autonomously and reliably over a period of 7 hours.

2. Integration into “Rakuten AI for Business”

Rakuten Mobile has officially integrated Claude models into its “Rakuten AI for Business” platform.
• Expansion alongside OpenAI: The Claude models complement existing features (such as those from ChatGPT) to provide enterprise clients with an even more versatile range of AI options.
• Focus on data analysis: Claude is primarily used to analyze complex internal data and present trends in an accessible format. This enables employees—even those without deep expertise in data science—to make well-informed business decisions in areas such as sales, planning, and administration.
• Medical research: Subsidiaries such as Rakuten Medical are also utilizing advanced models (including Claude Fable) to analyze clinical datasets and generate new research hypotheses.
Antworten
Libuda:

Meine Schlussfolgerung

 
17:41
Ich habe die letzten Wochen noch einmal permanent verbilligt.
Antworten
Libuda:

Rakuten Symphony is growing

 
17:42
What’s Driving Rakuten Symphony’s Growth?

October 26, 2026

www.bing.com/videos/riverview/...00E&churl=&FORM=VIRE
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