www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=42777Plexus: In the Right Place at the Right Time With the Right Technology?
By Jackie Steinitz
14 May 2008 at 04:17 PM GMT-04:00
LONDON (ResourceInvestor.com) -- The oil equipment and services sector is booming; both the FTSE and Dow Jones oil services sector indices have broken records within the last week.
The FTSE oil equipment services index is currently 45% higher than a year ago, while the FTSE 100 index is 5% down over the period. There is a similar contrast between the 37% year-on-year rise in the Dow Jones oil services index and the 3% decline in the Dow Jones industrial average.
Margins in the sector are buoyant too, with most equipment and services companies operating at, or near, full capacity.
And the boom seems set fair to continue as the key driver for the sector is investment spending in the oil business, which in turn is driven by oil demand and the maturing and depletion of existing fields.
As the world, especially China and India, continues to industrialise, a massive investment will be required to enable oil and gas companies to explore, in ever more difficult places and challenging conditions, to replace reserves, to develop fields in order to maintain production and to further invest in existing fields to maximise recoveries.
Plexus and POS-GRIP Technology
A company that may be particularly well poised to benefit from the growth in demand for oil equipment is Plexus Holdings plc [LSE:POS].
Head-quartered in Aberdeen, Scotland and with offices in London and Houston, Plexus’ wellhead rental and supply business is based upon an innovative and proprietary method of engineering.
POS-GRIP®, which was developed by the CEO and founder, Ben Van Bilderbeek, has the potential for applications in many fields, but was developed initially for use in wellheads and connectors in the oil and gas industry.
The technology in essence enables two “tubular members” (pipes) to be deformed against each other in order to achieve a simple, safe and high performance metal seal.
(For full details and for an animation of a POS-GRIP wellhead see Plexus’ AIM admission document and its products page.)
POS-GRIP wellheads offer the customer a number of very significant performance, safety and cost advantages over the other two methods currently in use in the industry. Specifically:
POS-GRIP wellheads have fewer components: Shown in the schematic below. This leads to a simplified design and assembly, and reduced installation costs.
They are simpler to manufacture, and so have lower unit cost.
POS-GRIP wellheads provide higher grade seals and have enhanced corrosion resistance: There is a larger metal to metal seal contact area.
POS-GRIP exploration wellheads are safer: Unlike the slip and seal wellheads currently used in around 80% of applications around the world the Blow Off Preventor remains in place throughout drilling, reducing the possibility of accidents. The higher grade seal reduces also the possibility of a gas leakage.
They are more reliable: There is almost no movement between the sealing parts.
POS-GRIP technology is particularly suitable for high pressure high temperature reservoirs: POS-GRIP holds the components in suspension and so is better able to withstand the stresses, strains and movements associated with extreme pressure and temperature conditions.
Plexus’ Revenue Model, Customers and Sponsors
Plexus generates revenue from a number of sources including the rental of wellheads for use in exploration, the sale of production wellheads and associated component products such as mudline hangers, and the provision of service support and technical expertise. In addition Plexus undertakes engineering projects based around POS-GRIP technology.
To date POS-GRIP wellheads have been used in over 140 wells in the North Sea, Brunei, the Caspian Sea, Egypt, Malaysia and Trinidad & Tobago. The company has an impressive client list including British Gas, BP, BHP Billiton, ConocoPhillips, Gaz de France, Maersk, Petro-Canada, Shell and Tullow Oil. In the last six weeks it has signed two contracts to supply wellheads for exploration in the North Sea and the Romanian Black Sea.
BP, ExxonMobil and Shell have also sponsored Plexus by contributing to studies of POS-GRIP technology.
Bull Points and Risks
There are a number of points favouring investment in Plexus
POS-GRIP technology offers very real benefits to the consumer: With drill rigs costing up to $1 million a day to hire the rental of a POS-GRIP wellhead can often pay for itself through time savings. A testimonial by Brunei Shell, for example, indicates that in addition to the safety benefits the POS-GRIP wellhead enabled 45 hours to be saved on a recent offshore operation.
Plexus has an expanding blue-chip client list and is increasing the global spread of its operations: In the last year it has extended its overseas operations to include the Caspian Sea, Egypt, Brunei, Trinidad and Malaysia. It has just established a base in Malaysia to target further business in Brunei, Malaysia, and in the longer term, perhaps Australia.
Growth in revenues and profits to date has been encouraging: Turnover to the year ending June 2007 was up 52% to £10.3 million while EBITDA increased 275% to £1.9 million. In the six months to December 2007 turnover was up 50% and EBITDA up 261% on the previous year.
The company is now generating considerable repeat business: Always a good sign!
Plexus’ rental wellheads act as a shop window: They raise awareness of the product and enable customers to “suck it and see!”
As awareness grows it may become easier for Plexus to gain momentum: There could be an “S curve” effect.
Plexus is particularly well poised to gain share of the high pressure high temperature market: Oil companies are having to explore in ever more extreme conditions; all the low-hanging fruit has been taken. POS-GRIP technology is particularly well suited to these conditions and Plexus will find it easier to gain market share in frontier markets.
Plexus’ market share has huge upside potential: The company estimates that at present it has just a 7.5% share of the $200m+ jack-up market, which in turn is just a small part of the $5bn+ oil and gas market for POS-GRIP technology.
POS-GRIP technology potentially has many other applications outside the oil and gas industry: It could be used for example in ship to shore operations where the technological advantages would be evident, or in any other pipeline application where it is important to connect and release quickly.
The technology is protected by a comprehensive suite of patents.
The company’s long term strategy is to make POS-GRIP a new industry wellhead standard: This would be no easy task given the strength of the multinational competitors, the industry’s slow adoption of new technology, and established practices. However the upside potential if Plexus were successful would be enormous.
These latter factors – the historic precedent (slip and seal technology has been around for decades), the entrenched positions and industry’s reluctance to adopt new technology - are perhaps the greatest risk facing Plexus. It may prove difficult to break into the pre-existing market for conventional low pressure low temperature wellheads and to gain industry penetration, though for reasons outlined above the HP/HT market is still in its early stages so this should prove an easier target for Plexus.
The risk of another company developing an alternative and superior technology is not considered likely as POS-GRIP technology has remained unchallenged for almost 10 years, and the approach, which Plexus describe as “doing from the outside in what everyone else does from inside out”, is well protected by patents.
Strategy and Valuation
Plexus has a multi-pronged strategy to further develop the business. While its long term goal is to establish POS-GRIP as the industry standard in the meantime it is seeking to boost awareness of the technology through rental and sales growth and by forming licensee and JV alliance partner relationships. Plexus is also actively promoting the enhanced safety aspects of POS-GRIP in order to benefit from tighter health and safety legislation in some countries such as the new “Corporate Manslaughter and Homicide Act 2007” which has recently been implemented in the U.K. The company is also working to expand its geographical base of operation, and to broaden the POS-GRIP product offering.
Plexus listed at 59 pence on London’s AIM market in December 2005 at a time when the market was fizzy. The share price overshot on the way up then, when the company did not make as much progress as initially anticipated, it overshot on the way down.
While the essential story has remained unchanged the company has now had a longer period to grow into the story, to demonstrate its potential and to gain new and repeat business. Following recent announcements of two contracts and successful interim results the price has rocketed 70% in less than two months. At today’s price of 64.5 pence the company has a valuation of £52 million ($101 million)
Plexus could currently be sitting near the bottom of an S curve. In a worst case scenario it could perhaps remain sitting there, with a modest market share albeit in a fast growing market. More likely, given the economic, performance and safety benefits of POS-GRIP technology (particularly in the fast growing high pressure high temperature market), the growing customer awareness, and the strategic vision of the company, it could progress up the S. In a best case scenario it could become a new industry standard.
Could this be a company in the right place, at the right time, with the right technology?
Quelle:
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