Lithic: Crypto zinc project getting more pregnant by the day
Synopsis: Lithic Resources Ltd (LTH-V: $0.35) is a prime example of an overlooked exploration junior that is on the verge of achieving a much higher profile as speculators come looking for juniors with competent management and projects that already have a resource in place that is open to expansion through new exploration and whose economics appear to shine at current metal prices. Nearly 2 million shares have come out in the $0.20-$0.30 during the first quarter of 2006, but the selling is drying up in response to the recent announcement of a $400,000 private placement at $0.25 which has generated so much interest management is considering increasing the amount. I wish to confirm that Lithic remains a top priority buy in the $0.20-$0.29 range and to alert bottom-fishers that the timing for a significant speculation cycle is imminent. If you want exposure to a zinc play in Utah with molybdenum, silver and even copper possibilities that already has more than $1.2 billion worth of zinc in the ground, currently carrying an implied project value of only $9 million, then Lithic Resources Ltd is an excellent way to put some zinc exposure into your bottom-fish portfolio. The upside limit during the next five weeks will likely be the $0.50-$0.60 level as the market either digests 2.9 million warrants exercisable at $0.50 until late April and early May or waits for them to expire. The proceeds from the current financing will be used to conduct geophysical surveys on the Crypto project in Utah and the earlier stage Stoke Mountain VMS project in southern Quebec prior to summer-fall drilling for which Lithic plans to raise another $2-3 million. Stoke Mountain is an old VMS teaser play in the same belt of rocks that host the Buchans and Duck Pond deposits as well as Messina's recent Boomerang discovery. Lithic's approach involves targeting an untested stratigraphic horizon in the hope of finding a large cousin of the many small copper-zinc-silver deposits in the region. Stoke Mountain is a sleeper in the sense that very little exploration was done during the 20th century because Domtar Paper had held the mineral rights. At Crypto Lithic plans to extend the known carbonate replacement zinc zones, apply modern geophysical methods to identify new possible zones, investigate the molybdenum mineralization previously encountered at depth, further explore the potential for distal high grade silver-lead veins, and follow up a past intersection of high grade copper-zinc-molybdenum mineralization. Crypto's geology appears to be driven by a deep porphyry system whose geometry is not yet well understood, which leaves this play open to significant surprises. The story at Stoke Mountain is the potential for a new discovery, while the story at Crypto is to expand the known mineralization and upgrade the existing resource in anticipation of a Structural Bull scenario where zinc establishes a long term average above $1 per lb. The wild card for Lithic is that the management behind its major shareholder, the Resource Capital Fund, takes advantage of higher prices generated by market interest in Crypto to drag an even larger project into the fold. As Lithic currently stands it offers something for just about every type of speculator, including the Bay Street boys who last October pelted the president with eggs and tomatoes when he came looking for money. But that was before zinc exploded from the sink
The 1,164 hectare Crypto project is located in Utah about 150 km southwest of Salt Lake City and about 50 km southeast of Dumont Nickel's Gold Hill project. Utah is a mining friendly state which hosts the world class Bingham Canyon Mine. The Bingham Canyon porphyry system has a resource of about 3.1 billion tonnes grading 0.73% copper, 0.043% molybdenite and 0.013 opt gold. In addition Bingham hosts carbonate replacement and skarn mineralization containing high grade zinc, lead, silver and gold ore. Bingham Canyon's carbonate replacement mineralization, of which 13.5 million tonnes grading 8.8% lead, 3.4% zinc and 4.9 opt silver has been mined, is relevant because Crypto has a similar geological setting, although the inferred porphyry system would be buried deeper. The Crypto project includes the historic Fish Springs Mining District which underwent small scale mining of high grade silver-lead ore from structurally controlled carbonate replacement zones during the late 19th century until the 1970's. The Utah Mine produced 13,000 tons grading 128 opt silver and 44% lead. Lithic believes there remains potential for additional high grade silver mineralization at depth in the eastern part of the property
The main focus at Crypto, however, is a series of carbonate replacement and magnetite bearing skarn zones containing coarse grained sphalerite (zinc). This mineralization occurs at the contact where a possibly Tertiary aged quartz monzonite intrusive has cut a sequence of Ordovician to Silurian carbonates. The zinc zones were discovered in 1961 by Utah International while drilling iron (magnetite) targets and explored until 1985. During the nineties Cyprus Minerals optioned the property and tested the known zones at depth. In total 68 holes have been drilled for 88,400 ft. Cyprus calculated a non-43-101 compliant "geological in situ reserve" in 1993 which Roscoe Postle independently reviewed and deemed to be up to prevailing industry standards. Cyprus estimated a resource of 2.8 million tonnes of oxide zinc grading 7% to a depth of 250 metres, and 5.4 million tonnes of 8.68% sulphide zinc between 300-500 metres. The zinc oxide mineralization is not relevant because it represents metallurgical recovery problems, but the deeper sulphide resource has economic potential through underground mining methods. The sulphide resource contains 1,033,058,880 lbs of zinc worth US $1.3 billion at a $1.24 per lb zinc price, with a rock value of $237 per tonne. When Lithic acquired the Crypto project the rock value of the zinc sulphides was only half that amount, and when zinc was wallowing at $0.35 per lb the rock value was only $67 per tonne, far too low to sustain an underground mining operation. At a $237 rock value the Crypto deposit may very well be feasible, but what nobody is yet willing to grant as feasible is a long term average zinc price of $1.24. That is why the market is only assigning an implied value of $9 million to the Crypto project rather the $100-200 million the project might be worth if high zinc prices were here to stay. Lithic management feels that it needs to boost the overall resource by at least 50% to achieve a scale that would justify development of an underground mine premised on $0.80-$0.90 long term zinc prices. And because even that assumption requires one to throw out the history of the past 30 years, it is no surprise that Lithic management sometimes comes across as Crypto's biggest skeptics
But Lithic's Chris Staargaard and Russ Cranswick are both geologists, and what gets them excited is the possibility that Crypto's geological potential has barely been scratched. The intrusive associated with the carbonate replacement mineralization appears to be a cupola extending from a deeper intrusive body. Drilling at depth of the zinc mineralization has encountered molybdenite mineralization. The presence of molybdenite at depth and the structurally controlled lead-silver mineralization east of the zinc zones is consistent with the metal zonation found in porphyry system. Additional intriguing possibilities are raised by a 3 metre intersection 600 metres east of the main zone which graded 3.5% copper, 7.65% zinc, 0.1% molybdenum and 21.8 g/t silver. Copper is not part of the known zinc carbonate replacement zones, which leads Lithic management to suspect that a large porphyry is present at depth which has generated a number of carbonate replacement deposits with varying metal content. The idealized cartoon model below is a possible interpretation of the above Crypto geological cartoon. The exploration strategy will be to apply a variety of geophysical techniques in an effort to "see" targets not seen before, and to drill a number of deep holes designed to illuminate the geological context of the targets. The goal for Crypto is thus twofold: expand the known zones and find entirely new zones by developing a better understanding of the Crypto system's geometry. It is tough to raise money in bear markets for such a strategy, but in a bull market based on rising commodity prices this double pronged approach appeals to dreamers and number-crunchers alike.
The Stoke Mountain project was also optioned in June 2005 from a pair of geologists who had worked on this project during the nineties. Lithic can earn 100% by paying $155,000, issuing 450,000 shares and spending $975,000 over four years. The vendors retain a 2% NSR, of which can be bought out for $500,000. The property is located in southern Quebec about a 2 hour drive southeast of Montreal. It occurs within the Dunnage tectonic zone, "a belt of old oceanic crust that includes a collage of Cambrian to Mid-Ordovician island-arc terranes" which have potential for volcanogenic massive sulphide deposits (VMS). World class deposits include the mined out Buchans deposit in Newfoundland and the Brunswick 12 deposit in New Brunswick. Smaller examples in Newfoundland include Aur's Duck Pond deposit and the new boomerang discovery of Messina Minerals.
A number of small 1-3 million tonne copper-zinc-lead-gold-silver deposits have been exploited on the Quebec portion during the past hundred years. Examples include Cupra-d'Estrie at 2.43 million tons of 3.28% zinc, 2.74% copper, and 38 g/t silver, Solbec at 2.06 million tonnes of 4.57% zinc, 1.57% copper, 48.6 g/t silver, and Suffield at 1.39 million tonnes of 7% zinc, 0.9% copper, 0.5% lead, 91.2 g/t silver and 2.7 g/t gold. The town of Sherbrooke to the southwest of the Stoke Mountain property used to be a mining town but no longer so. The Stoke Mountain property is interesting because it has received little exploration compared to surrounding land because Domtar Paper held mineral rights until a forced divestiture in the eighties. The theory is that VMS deposits occur in clusters, usually with at least one larger deposit which in this area has not yet been found. Lac Minerals took a first crack at the property in search of Bousquet style gold deposits, and then Phelps Dodge took on the project during the nineties, shifting the focus to VMS targets. Phelps Dodge focused its drilling on IP anomalies deep within the volcanic sequence and obtained a few sniffs, and just as its geologists were figuring out that their focus should have been the volcanic-sediment contact higher up in the stratigraphic sequence, Phelps Dodge pulled the plug on the project. For at least one of the vendors Stokes Mountain represents unfinished business. Lithic's goal is to conduct detailed mapping and geochemical sampling to better sort out the stratigraphy and follow up with drilling.
Conclusion: Lithic has suffered from neglect by its major shareholder during the past couple years because the Resource Capital Fund group does not normally control the companies it bankrolls. Lithic was thus an anomaly with which it was unsure how to deal. The job has now fallen to RCF's Russ Cranswick to help Chris Staargaard breathe new life into the junior. Other directors include RCF's Ryan Bennett and Frank Wheatley who tend to be busy with other projects. Both Staargaard and Cranswick are relatively young in mining industry terms, and although they do not have significant equity stakes in Lithic, the junior is emerging as a proving ground for them. Prior to the recent private placement the company had almost no money left and a bunch of disgruntled shareholders wondering why they had ever invested in Lithic. All that is about to change, provided Cranswick and Staargaard pick up the ball and run with it. The IPV chart below reveals that at a $9 million IPV for the 100% owned Crypto project Lithic is among the cheapest of the juniors who own zinc deposits. With only 18,032,819 shares issued and 24,490,486 fully diluted, of which nearly 9 million are owned by Resource Capital Fund II, Cumberland and Eurozinc, the structure of Lithic offers lots of upside if Crypto captures the public's imagination, and Stoke Mountain delivers a new discovery.
Synopsis: Lithic Resources Ltd (LTH-V: $0.35) is a prime example of an overlooked exploration junior that is on the verge of achieving a much higher profile as speculators come looking for juniors with competent management and projects that already have a resource in place that is open to expansion through new exploration and whose economics appear to shine at current metal prices. Nearly 2 million shares have come out in the $0.20-$0.30 during the first quarter of 2006, but the selling is drying up in response to the recent announcement of a $400,000 private placement at $0.25 which has generated so much interest management is considering increasing the amount. I wish to confirm that Lithic remains a top priority buy in the $0.20-$0.29 range and to alert bottom-fishers that the timing for a significant speculation cycle is imminent. If you want exposure to a zinc play in Utah with molybdenum, silver and even copper possibilities that already has more than $1.2 billion worth of zinc in the ground, currently carrying an implied project value of only $9 million, then Lithic Resources Ltd is an excellent way to put some zinc exposure into your bottom-fish portfolio. The upside limit during the next five weeks will likely be the $0.50-$0.60 level as the market either digests 2.9 million warrants exercisable at $0.50 until late April and early May or waits for them to expire. The proceeds from the current financing will be used to conduct geophysical surveys on the Crypto project in Utah and the earlier stage Stoke Mountain VMS project in southern Quebec prior to summer-fall drilling for which Lithic plans to raise another $2-3 million. Stoke Mountain is an old VMS teaser play in the same belt of rocks that host the Buchans and Duck Pond deposits as well as Messina's recent Boomerang discovery. Lithic's approach involves targeting an untested stratigraphic horizon in the hope of finding a large cousin of the many small copper-zinc-silver deposits in the region. Stoke Mountain is a sleeper in the sense that very little exploration was done during the 20th century because Domtar Paper had held the mineral rights. At Crypto Lithic plans to extend the known carbonate replacement zinc zones, apply modern geophysical methods to identify new possible zones, investigate the molybdenum mineralization previously encountered at depth, further explore the potential for distal high grade silver-lead veins, and follow up a past intersection of high grade copper-zinc-molybdenum mineralization. Crypto's geology appears to be driven by a deep porphyry system whose geometry is not yet well understood, which leaves this play open to significant surprises. The story at Stoke Mountain is the potential for a new discovery, while the story at Crypto is to expand the known mineralization and upgrade the existing resource in anticipation of a Structural Bull scenario where zinc establishes a long term average above $1 per lb. The wild card for Lithic is that the management behind its major shareholder, the Resource Capital Fund, takes advantage of higher prices generated by market interest in Crypto to drag an even larger project into the fold. As Lithic currently stands it offers something for just about every type of speculator, including the Bay Street boys who last October pelted the president with eggs and tomatoes when he came looking for money. But that was before zinc exploded from the sink
The 1,164 hectare Crypto project is located in Utah about 150 km southwest of Salt Lake City and about 50 km southeast of Dumont Nickel's Gold Hill project. Utah is a mining friendly state which hosts the world class Bingham Canyon Mine. The Bingham Canyon porphyry system has a resource of about 3.1 billion tonnes grading 0.73% copper, 0.043% molybdenite and 0.013 opt gold. In addition Bingham hosts carbonate replacement and skarn mineralization containing high grade zinc, lead, silver and gold ore. Bingham Canyon's carbonate replacement mineralization, of which 13.5 million tonnes grading 8.8% lead, 3.4% zinc and 4.9 opt silver has been mined, is relevant because Crypto has a similar geological setting, although the inferred porphyry system would be buried deeper. The Crypto project includes the historic Fish Springs Mining District which underwent small scale mining of high grade silver-lead ore from structurally controlled carbonate replacement zones during the late 19th century until the 1970's. The Utah Mine produced 13,000 tons grading 128 opt silver and 44% lead. Lithic believes there remains potential for additional high grade silver mineralization at depth in the eastern part of the property
The main focus at Crypto, however, is a series of carbonate replacement and magnetite bearing skarn zones containing coarse grained sphalerite (zinc). This mineralization occurs at the contact where a possibly Tertiary aged quartz monzonite intrusive has cut a sequence of Ordovician to Silurian carbonates. The zinc zones were discovered in 1961 by Utah International while drilling iron (magnetite) targets and explored until 1985. During the nineties Cyprus Minerals optioned the property and tested the known zones at depth. In total 68 holes have been drilled for 88,400 ft. Cyprus calculated a non-43-101 compliant "geological in situ reserve" in 1993 which Roscoe Postle independently reviewed and deemed to be up to prevailing industry standards. Cyprus estimated a resource of 2.8 million tonnes of oxide zinc grading 7% to a depth of 250 metres, and 5.4 million tonnes of 8.68% sulphide zinc between 300-500 metres. The zinc oxide mineralization is not relevant because it represents metallurgical recovery problems, but the deeper sulphide resource has economic potential through underground mining methods. The sulphide resource contains 1,033,058,880 lbs of zinc worth US $1.3 billion at a $1.24 per lb zinc price, with a rock value of $237 per tonne. When Lithic acquired the Crypto project the rock value of the zinc sulphides was only half that amount, and when zinc was wallowing at $0.35 per lb the rock value was only $67 per tonne, far too low to sustain an underground mining operation. At a $237 rock value the Crypto deposit may very well be feasible, but what nobody is yet willing to grant as feasible is a long term average zinc price of $1.24. That is why the market is only assigning an implied value of $9 million to the Crypto project rather the $100-200 million the project might be worth if high zinc prices were here to stay. Lithic management feels that it needs to boost the overall resource by at least 50% to achieve a scale that would justify development of an underground mine premised on $0.80-$0.90 long term zinc prices. And because even that assumption requires one to throw out the history of the past 30 years, it is no surprise that Lithic management sometimes comes across as Crypto's biggest skeptics
But Lithic's Chris Staargaard and Russ Cranswick are both geologists, and what gets them excited is the possibility that Crypto's geological potential has barely been scratched. The intrusive associated with the carbonate replacement mineralization appears to be a cupola extending from a deeper intrusive body. Drilling at depth of the zinc mineralization has encountered molybdenite mineralization. The presence of molybdenite at depth and the structurally controlled lead-silver mineralization east of the zinc zones is consistent with the metal zonation found in porphyry system. Additional intriguing possibilities are raised by a 3 metre intersection 600 metres east of the main zone which graded 3.5% copper, 7.65% zinc, 0.1% molybdenum and 21.8 g/t silver. Copper is not part of the known zinc carbonate replacement zones, which leads Lithic management to suspect that a large porphyry is present at depth which has generated a number of carbonate replacement deposits with varying metal content. The idealized cartoon model below is a possible interpretation of the above Crypto geological cartoon. The exploration strategy will be to apply a variety of geophysical techniques in an effort to "see" targets not seen before, and to drill a number of deep holes designed to illuminate the geological context of the targets. The goal for Crypto is thus twofold: expand the known zones and find entirely new zones by developing a better understanding of the Crypto system's geometry. It is tough to raise money in bear markets for such a strategy, but in a bull market based on rising commodity prices this double pronged approach appeals to dreamers and number-crunchers alike.
The Stoke Mountain project was also optioned in June 2005 from a pair of geologists who had worked on this project during the nineties. Lithic can earn 100% by paying $155,000, issuing 450,000 shares and spending $975,000 over four years. The vendors retain a 2% NSR, of which can be bought out for $500,000. The property is located in southern Quebec about a 2 hour drive southeast of Montreal. It occurs within the Dunnage tectonic zone, "a belt of old oceanic crust that includes a collage of Cambrian to Mid-Ordovician island-arc terranes" which have potential for volcanogenic massive sulphide deposits (VMS). World class deposits include the mined out Buchans deposit in Newfoundland and the Brunswick 12 deposit in New Brunswick. Smaller examples in Newfoundland include Aur's Duck Pond deposit and the new boomerang discovery of Messina Minerals.
A number of small 1-3 million tonne copper-zinc-lead-gold-silver deposits have been exploited on the Quebec portion during the past hundred years. Examples include Cupra-d'Estrie at 2.43 million tons of 3.28% zinc, 2.74% copper, and 38 g/t silver, Solbec at 2.06 million tonnes of 4.57% zinc, 1.57% copper, 48.6 g/t silver, and Suffield at 1.39 million tonnes of 7% zinc, 0.9% copper, 0.5% lead, 91.2 g/t silver and 2.7 g/t gold. The town of Sherbrooke to the southwest of the Stoke Mountain property used to be a mining town but no longer so. The Stoke Mountain property is interesting because it has received little exploration compared to surrounding land because Domtar Paper held mineral rights until a forced divestiture in the eighties. The theory is that VMS deposits occur in clusters, usually with at least one larger deposit which in this area has not yet been found. Lac Minerals took a first crack at the property in search of Bousquet style gold deposits, and then Phelps Dodge took on the project during the nineties, shifting the focus to VMS targets. Phelps Dodge focused its drilling on IP anomalies deep within the volcanic sequence and obtained a few sniffs, and just as its geologists were figuring out that their focus should have been the volcanic-sediment contact higher up in the stratigraphic sequence, Phelps Dodge pulled the plug on the project. For at least one of the vendors Stokes Mountain represents unfinished business. Lithic's goal is to conduct detailed mapping and geochemical sampling to better sort out the stratigraphy and follow up with drilling.
Conclusion: Lithic has suffered from neglect by its major shareholder during the past couple years because the Resource Capital Fund group does not normally control the companies it bankrolls. Lithic was thus an anomaly with which it was unsure how to deal. The job has now fallen to RCF's Russ Cranswick to help Chris Staargaard breathe new life into the junior. Other directors include RCF's Ryan Bennett and Frank Wheatley who tend to be busy with other projects. Both Staargaard and Cranswick are relatively young in mining industry terms, and although they do not have significant equity stakes in Lithic, the junior is emerging as a proving ground for them. Prior to the recent private placement the company had almost no money left and a bunch of disgruntled shareholders wondering why they had ever invested in Lithic. All that is about to change, provided Cranswick and Staargaard pick up the ball and run with it. The IPV chart below reveals that at a $9 million IPV for the 100% owned Crypto project Lithic is among the cheapest of the juniors who own zinc deposits. With only 18,032,819 shares issued and 24,490,486 fully diluted, of which nearly 9 million are owned by Resource Capital Fund II, Cumberland and Eurozinc, the structure of Lithic offers lots of upside if Crypto captures the public's imagination, and Stoke Mountain delivers a new discovery.