Er vermutet übrigens die IPO in Hongkong nach dem 30.09 nach bekanntgabe der Quartalszahlen.
Destination Macau e-news letter has been
providing great news for a long time. Macau is the trigger for any
stock action on LVS, Wynn and MGM at the moment. Here's some extract from this weeks installment...
"We couldn't get a closer look at the details of the gaming revenue
numbers for August until early this week, which is why we didn't say much about them last week. They make for interesting reading about who the biggest winners really were in the record-breaking month.
If we were religious analysts, we would have to say that Sheldon
Adelson's god is more powerful than any of the Christians, Taoists, or Buddhists who run gaming concessions in Macau. Not only did his VIP rolling-chip volumes go up by a nice 15 per cent clip over July, but the casino managed to hold an astonishing 4.64 per cent of it. The net result was that LVS (Venetian, Sands and Four Seasons) raked in a whopping MOP 1.67 billion on the high-stakes baccarat tables, 54 per cent more than they did in July. This was more than SJM made from VIP tables in its 16 casinos.
The company's mass floors were packed too, as we noticed before, and though we cannot know what the win percentage was there, we can know that LVS pulled in nearly MOP 100 million more in mass-table revenues, MOP 847 million in total, than the previous month. SJM still made the most on mass – MOP 1.25 billion – but, as we have pointed out before, those revenues are given mostly straight back whence they came in commissions to the non-Lisboa casinos run by third parties. The Grand Lisboa is a very profitable property, but the rest are all basically
just rentier deals.
To be sure, SJM management must have been left shaking their heads at another month of bad luck. Although rolling-chip volumes at the group went up an eye-popping 33 per cent to MOP 72.5 billion, the win-hold was just 2.26 per cent. That follows a win-hold of 2.0 per cent in July. Well, at least we know there are some ecstatic punters out there who believe they can "beat Stanley Ho", even if he is still in hospital.
The second-biggest gainer in rolling-chip volume was, perhaps
predictably, Melco-Crown, which pulled in almost 20 per cent more than in July and held it at 3.1 per cent for a VIP win of nearly MOP 1.5 billion. Naturally, everyone else around town is muttering about commission caps being busted again. The Macau Daily News (Ou Mun Yat Bo) this week mused about the government's inability to stop "under- table" commissions. But anyway, we digress ...
Wynn squeezed out a slight monthly gain in VIP revenue (just over MOP 1 billion) on a slightly lower win-hold than last month of 3.1 per cent. Galaxy got its rolling-chip volumes up nicely, only slightly behind what LVS did, in fact, but its win-hold was just 2.47 per cent for MOP 885 million. MGM was the only one that saw its VIP win drop month-on-month. It had the smallest gain in rolling-chip turnover and, even though its win-hold was a nice 3.78 per cent, this was against a very strong July win number by comparison.
On the mass floor was where MGM had something to crow about. It was
the biggest overall month-on-month gainer, pulling in MOP 234 million for a nearly 22 per cent gain over July. (StarWorld's percentage gain doesn't count, as its mass floor was half-closed the previous month.)
Indeed, MGM's number was more than City of Dreams and Altira combined (MOP 197 million). Wynn was still ahead of MGM, at MOP 312 million, but the gap continues to narrow. Grant Bowie's team must be doing something right.
Now, these numbers are only for table games. But we deducted the table total from the DICJ's overall number reported by Lusa and we were left with a cool MOP 700 million for slots in August. Which means the month was probably even better for LVS, which has the most.
So, what conclusions or insightful analyses can be drawn from these
numbers? To be frank, it's very difficult to project any kind of
longer-term trend from them. There is a certain element of skill
involved in this business, the kind of skill that makes the Sic Bo
tables at the Grand Lisboa that are closest to the escalators the most profitable. And yes, the importance of cost control is why people like Frank McFadden are paid like investment bankers used to be. There is much to be said of marketing prowess, too, which is why SJM's VIP turnover could go up by such a staggering amount and why Venetian and Sands could make so much on their mass floors. But at the end of the day, this business is really about the luck of the cards.
Consider this: If SJM had held 3.1 per cent of its turnover this
month, it would have made over half a billion patacas more. If it had held at the LVS win-hold of 4.64, it would have made an unimaginable MOP 3.36 billion. But by the same token, it has to be argued, if SJM had started the month holding at 3.1 or 4.64 per cent, it probably wouldn't have seen such record turnover for the month, because punters would have either fled with their tails between their legs or their junkets would have yanked them off to another casino with a fresh line of credit.
There are other variants to consider, too. What would happen, for
instance, if a monthly cut-off date were moved a few days either way?
Reported win percentages could change drastically. Moreover, we don't know who is doing the most in the direct-VIP business, because the turnover for non-junket VIP play doesn't show up in the DICJ numbers.
Personally, we are totally against monthly numbers being reported.
They over-excite investors on the upside, and they exacerbate
disillusionment on the downside. But it's like the old arms-trader
defense. If it's going to happen anyway, we may as well be a part of it.
LVS pockets US$600 million
Speaking of who has the most, we noticed this week that LVS closed its US$600 million in pre-IPO financing within days of saying it was going to. That must be some kind of record for the company:
to close a deal within days after senior management say it is going to happen "soon".
We can only wonder who these bonds went to, but would not be surprised if they include several people who are on the Forbes and Hurun rich lists.
To be sure, Adelson is riding very high again. Our calculations from the above revenue numbers, multiplied by Venetian Macau Limited's most recently reported Ebitda-to-gaming revenue ratio, plus a thumb-suck on what it makes on non-gaming, suggest VML went well over US$100 million in EBITDA for the month.
That's even before we have considered how many more people VML President Steve Jacobs managed to hunt down and fire since the last quarterly earnings announcement.
Usually, the Vegas-based companies take about six weeks between the
close of the quarter and the announcement of results. This quarter, we wouldn't be surprised if LVS announces its numbers the day after reporting closes on September 30 (or thereabouts).
Bring on the Hong Kong IPO."
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